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Modular Blockchain Wars: Celestia vs EigenDA vs Avail and the Rollup Economics Breakdown

· 9 min read
Dora Noda
Software Engineer

Data availability is the new battleground for blockchain dominance—and the stakes have never been higher. As Layer 2 TVL climbs past $47 billion and rollup transactions eclipse Ethereum mainnet by a factor of four, the question of where to store transaction data has become the most consequential infrastructure decision in crypto.

Three protocols are racing to become the backbone of the modular blockchain era: Celestia, the pioneer that proved the concept; EigenDA, the Ethereum-aligned challenger leveraging $19 billion in restaked assets; and Avail, the universal DA layer aiming to connect every ecosystem. The winner won't just capture fees—they'll define how the next generation of blockchains are built.


The Economics That Started a War

Here's the brutal math that launched the modular blockchain movement: posting data to Ethereum costs approximately $100 per megabyte. Even with the introduction of EIP-4844's blobs, that figure only dropped to $20.56 per MB—still prohibitively expensive for high-throughput applications.

Enter Celestia, with data availability at roughly $0.81 per MB. That's a 99% cost reduction that fundamentally changed what's economically viable on-chain.

For rollups, data availability isn't a nice-to-have—it's their largest variable cost. Every transaction a rollup processes must be posted somewhere for verification. When that somewhere charges a 100x premium, the entire business model suffers. Rollups must either:

  1. Pass costs to users (killing adoption)
  2. Subsidize costs indefinitely (killing sustainability)
  3. Find cheaper DA (killing nothing)

By 2025, the market has spoken decisively: over 80% of Layer 2 activity now relies on dedicated DA layers rather than Ethereum's base layer.


Celestia: The First-Mover Advantage

Celestia was built from scratch for a single purpose: being a plug-and-play consensus and data layer. It doesn't support smart contracts or dApps. Instead, it offers blobspace—the ability for protocols to publish large chunks of data without executing any logic.

The technical innovation that makes this work is Data Availability Sampling (DAS). Rather than requiring every node to download every block, DAS allows lightweight nodes to confirm data availability by randomly sampling tiny pieces. This seemingly simple change unlocks massive scalability without sacrificing decentralization.

By the Numbers (2025)

Celestia's ecosystem has exploded:

  • 56+ rollups deployed (37 mainnet, 19 testnet)
  • 160+ gigabytes of blob data processed to date
  • Eclipse alone has posted over 83 GB through the network
  • 128 MB blocks enabled after the November 2025 Matcha upgrade
  • 21.33 MB/s throughput achieved in testnet conditions (16x mainnet capacity)

The network's namespace activity hit an all-time high on December 26, 2025—ironically, while TIA experienced a 90% yearly price decline. Usage and token price have decoupled spectacularly, raising questions about value capture in pure DA protocols.

Finality characteristics: Celestia creates blocks every 6 seconds with Tendermint consensus. However, because it uses fraud proofs rather than validity proofs, true DA finality requires a ~10 minute challenge period.

Decentralization trade-offs: With 100 validators and a Nakamoto Coefficient of 6, Celestia offers meaningful decentralization but remains susceptible to validator centralization risks inherent to delegated proof-of-stake systems.


EigenDA: The Ethereum Alignment Play

EigenDA takes a fundamentally different approach. Rather than building a new blockchain, it leverages Ethereum's existing security through restaking. Validators who stake ETH on Ethereum can "restake" it to secure additional services—including data availability.

This design offers two killer features:

Economic security at scale: EigenDA is backed by $335+ million in restaked assets specifically allocated to DA services, drawing from EigenLayer's $19 billion+ TVL pool. No new trust assumptions, no new token to secure.

Raw throughput: EigenDA claims 100 MB/s on mainnet—achievable because it separates data dispersal from consensus. While Celestia processes at roughly 1.33 MB/s live (8 MB blocks / 6 seconds), EigenDA can move data an order of magnitude faster.

Adoption Momentum

Major rollups have committed to EigenDA:

  • Mantle Network: Upgraded from MantleDA (10 operators) to EigenDA (200+ operators), reporting up to 80% cost reduction
  • Celo: Leveraging EigenDA for their L2 transition
  • ZKsync Elastic Network: Designated EigenDA as preferred alternative DA solution for its customizable rollup ecosystem

The operator network now exceeds 200 nodes with over 40,000 individual restakers delegating ETH.

The centralization critique: Unlike Celestia and Avail, EigenDA operates as a Data Availability Committee rather than a publicly verified blockchain. End users cannot independently verify data availability—they rely on economic guarantees and slashing risks. For applications where pure decentralization matters more than throughput, this is a meaningful trade-off.

Finality characteristics: EigenDA inherits Ethereum's finality timeline—between 12 and 15 minutes, significantly longer than Celestia's native 6-second blocks.


Avail: The Universal Connector

Avail emerged from Polygon but was designed from day one to be chain-agnostic. While Celestia and EigenDA focus primarily on Ethereum ecosystem rollups, Avail positions itself as the universal DA layer connecting every major blockchain.

The technical differentiator is how Avail implements data availability sampling. While Celestia relies on fraud proofs (requiring a challenge period for full security), Avail combines validity proofs with DAS through KZG commitments. This provides faster cryptographic guarantees of data availability.

2025 Milestones

Avail's year has been marked by aggressive expansion:

  • 70+ partnerships secured including major L2 players
  • Arbitrum, Optimism, Polygon, StarkWare, and zkSync announced integrations following mainnet launch
  • 10+ rollups currently in production
  • $75 million raised including $45M Series A from Founders Fund, Dragonfly Capital, and Cyber Capital
  • Avail Nexus launched November 2025, enabling cross-chain coordination across 11+ ecosystems

The Nexus upgrade is particularly significant. It introduced a ZK-powered cross-chain coordination layer that lets applications interact with assets across Ethereum, Solana (coming soon), TRON, Polygon, Base, Arbitrum, Optimism, and BNB without manual bridging.

The Infinity Blocks roadmap targets 10 GB block capacity—an order of magnitude beyond any current competitor.

Current constraints: Avail's mainnet runs at 4 MB per 20-second block (0.2 MB/s), the lowest throughput of the three major DA layers. However, testing has proven capability for 128 MB blocks, suggesting significant headroom for growth.


The Rollup Economics Breakdown

For rollup operators, choosing a DA layer is one of the most consequential decisions they'll make. Here's how the math works:

Cost Comparison (Per MB, 2025)

DA SolutionCost per MBNotes
Ethereum L1 (calldata)~$100Legacy approach
Ethereum Blobs (EIP-4844)~$20.56Post-Pectra with 6 blob target
Celestia~$0.81PayForBlob model
EigenDATieredReserved bandwidth pricing
AvailFormula-basedBase + length + weight

Throughput Comparison

DA SolutionLive ThroughputTheoretical Max
EigenDA15 MB/s (claimed 100 MB/s)100 MB/s
Celestia~1.33 MB/s21.33 MB/s (tested)
Avail~0.2 MB/s128 MB blocks (tested)

Finality Characteristics

DA SolutionBlock TimeEffective Finality
Celestia6 seconds~10 minutes (fraud proof window)
EigenDAN/A (uses Ethereum)12-15 minutes
Avail20 secondsFaster (validity proofs)

Trust Model

DA SolutionVerificationTrust Assumption
CelestiaPublic DAS1-of-N honest light node
EigenDADACEconomic (slashing risk)
AvailPublic DAS + KZGCryptographic validity

Security Considerations: The DA-Saturation Attack

Recent research has identified a new vulnerability class specific to modular rollups: DA-saturation attacks. When DA costs are externally priced (by the parent L1) but locally consumed (by the L2), malicious actors can saturate a rollup's DA capacity at artificially low cost.

This decoupling of pricing and consumption is intrinsic to the modular architecture and opens attack vectors absent from monolithic chains. Rollups using alternative DA layers should implement:

  • Independent capacity pricing mechanisms
  • Rate limiting for suspicious data patterns
  • Economic reserves for DA spikes

Strategic Implications: Who Wins?

The DA wars aren't winner-take-all—at least not yet. Each protocol has carved out distinct positioning:

Celestia wins if you value:

  • Proven production track record (50+ rollups)
  • Deep ecosystem integration (OP Stack, Arbitrum Orbit, Polygon CDK)
  • Transparent per-blob pricing
  • Strong developer tooling

EigenDA wins if you value:

  • Maximum throughput (100 MB/s)
  • Ethereum security alignment via restaking
  • Predictable capacity-based pricing
  • Institutional-grade economic guarantees

Avail wins if you value:

  • Cross-chain universality (11+ ecosystems)
  • Validity proof-based DA verification
  • Long-term throughput roadmap (10 GB blocks)
  • Chain-agnostic architecture

The Road Ahead

By 2026, the DA layer landscape will look dramatically different:

Celestia is targeting 1 GB blocks with its continued network upgrades. The inflation reduction from Matcha (2.5%) and Lotus (33% lower issuance) suggests a long-term play for sustainable economics.

EigenDA benefits from EigenLayer's growing restaking economy. The proposed Incentives Committee and fee-sharing model could create powerful flywheel effects for EIGEN holders.

Avail aims for 10 GB blocks with Infinity Blocks, potentially leapfrogging competitors on pure capacity while maintaining its cross-chain positioning.

The meta-trend is clear: DA capacity is becoming abundant, competition is driving costs toward zero, and the real value capture may shift from charging for blobspace to controlling the coordination layer that routes data between chains.

For rollup builders, the takeaway is straightforward: DA costs are no longer a meaningful constraint on what you can build. The modular blockchain thesis has won. Now it's just a question of which modular stack captures the most value.


References

Paradigm's Quiet Transformation: What Crypto's Most Influential VC Is Really Betting On

· 10 min read
Dora Noda
Software Engineer

In May 2023, something strange happened on Paradigm's website. The homepage quietly removed any mention of "Web3" or "crypto," replacing it with the anodyne phrase "research-driven technology." The crypto community noticed. And they weren't happy.

Three years later, the story has taken unexpected turns. Co-founder Fred Ehrsam stepped down from managing partner to pursue brain-computer interfaces. Matt Huang, the remaining co-founder, is now splitting time as CEO of Stripe's new blockchain Tempo. And Paradigm itself has emerged from a period of relative quiet with a portfolio that tells a fascinating story about where crypto's smartest money thinks the industry is actually heading.

With $12.7 billion in assets under management and a track record that includes Uniswap, Flashbots, and the $225 million Monad bet, Paradigm's moves ripple through the entire crypto VC ecosystem. Understanding what they're doing—and not doing—offers a window into what 2026 funding might actually look like.


The AI Controversy and What It Revealed

The 2023 website change wasn't random. It came in the aftermath of Paradigm's most painful moment: watching their $278 million investment in FTX get written down to zero after Sam Bankman-Fried's empire collapsed in November 2022.

The ensuing crypto winter forced a reckoning. Paradigm's public flirtation with AI—scrubbing crypto references from their homepage, making general "research-driven technology" noises—drew sharp criticism from crypto entrepreneurs and even their own limited partners. Matt Huang eventually clarified on Twitter that the firm would continue crypto investing while exploring AI intersections.

But the damage was real. The incident exposed a tension at the heart of crypto venture capital: how do you maintain conviction through bear markets when your LPs and portfolio companies are watching your every move?

The answer, it turns out, was to go quiet and let the investments speak.


The Portfolio That Tells the Real Story

Paradigm's golden era ran from 2019 to 2021. During this period, they established their brand identity: technical infrastructure, Ethereum core ecosystem, long-termism. The investments from that era—Uniswap, Optimism, Lido, Flashbots—weren't just successful; they defined what "Paradigm-style" investing meant.

Then came the bear market silence. And then, in 2024-2025, a clear pattern emerged.

The $850 Million Third Fund (2024)

Paradigm closed an $850 million fund in 2024—significantly smaller than their $2.5 billion 2021 fund, but still substantial for a crypto-focused firm in a bear market. The reduced size signaled pragmatism: fewer moonshots, more concentrated bets.

The AI-Crypto Intersection Bet

In April 2025, Paradigm led a $50 million Series A for Nous Research, a decentralized AI startup building open-source language models on Solana. The round valued Nous at $1 billion in tokens—Paradigm's largest AI bet to date.

This wasn't random AI investing. Nous represents exactly the kind of intersection Paradigm had been hinting at: AI infrastructure with genuine crypto native properties. Their flagship model Hermes 3 has over 50 million downloads and powers agents across platforms like X, Telegram, and gaming environments.

The investment makes sense through a Paradigm lens: just as Flashbots became essential MEV infrastructure for Ethereum, Nous could become essential AI infrastructure for crypto applications.

The Stablecoin Infrastructure Play

In July 2025, Paradigm led a $50 million Series A for Agora, a stablecoin company co-founded by Nick van Eck (son of the prominent investment management CEO). Stablecoins processed $9 trillion in payments in 2025—an 87% increase from 2024—making them one of crypto's clearest product-market fit stories.

This fits Paradigm's historical pattern: backing infrastructure that becomes essential to how the ecosystem operates.

The Monad Ecosystem Build-Out

Paradigm's 2024 $225 million investment in Monad Labs—a layer 1 blockchain challenging Solana and Ethereum—was their biggest single bet of the cycle. But the real signal came in 2025 when they led an $11.6 million Series A for Kuru Labs, a DeFi startup building specifically on Monad.

This "invest in the chain, then invest in the ecosystem" pattern mirrors their earlier Ethereum strategy with Uniswap and Optimism. It suggests Paradigm sees Monad as a long-term infrastructure play worth cultivating, not just a one-off investment.


The Leadership Shift and What It Means

The most significant change at Paradigm isn't an investment—it's the evolution of its leadership structure.

Fred Ehrsam's Quiet Exit

In October 2023, Ehrsam stepped down from managing partner to general partner, citing a desire to focus on scientific interests. By 2024, he had incorporated Nudge, a neurotechnology startup focused on non-invasive brain-computer interfaces.

Ehrsam's departure from day-to-day operations removed one of the firm's two founding personalities. While he remains involved as a GP, the practical effect is that Paradigm is now primarily Matt Huang's firm.

Matt Huang's Dual Role

The bigger structural change came in August 2025 when Huang was announced as CEO of Stripe's new blockchain Tempo. Huang will stay in his role at Paradigm while leading Tempo—a layer 1 blockchain specializing in payments that will be compatible with Ethereum but not built on top of it.

This arrangement is unusual in venture capital. Managing partners typically don't run portfolio companies (or in this case, companies launched by their board affiliations). The fact that Huang is doing both suggests either extraordinary confidence in Paradigm's team infrastructure, or a fundamental shift in how the firm operates.

For crypto founders, the implication is worth noting: when you pitch Paradigm, you're increasingly pitching a team, not the founders.


What This Means for 2026 Crypto Funding

Paradigm's moves offer a preview of broader trends shaping crypto venture capital in 2026.

Concentration Is the New Normal

Crypto VC funding surged 433% in 2025 to $49.75 billion, but this masks a brutal reality: deal count fell roughly 60% year over year, from about 2,900 transactions to 1,200. The money is flowing to fewer companies at larger check sizes.

Traditional venture investment in crypto reached about $18.9 billion in 2025, up from $13.8 billion in 2024. But much of the headline $49.75 billion figure came from digital asset treasury (DAT) companies—institutional vehicles for crypto exposure, not startup investments.

Paradigm's smaller 2024 fund size and concentrated betting pattern anticipated this shift. They're making fewer, bigger bets rather than spreading across dozens of seed rounds.

Infrastructure Over Applications

Looking at Paradigm's 2024-2025 investments—Nous Research (AI infrastructure), Agora (stablecoin infrastructure), Monad (L1 infrastructure), Kuru Labs (DeFi infrastructure on Monad)—a clear theme emerges: they're betting on infrastructure layers, not consumer applications.

This aligns with broader VC sentiment. According to top VCs surveyed by The Block, stablecoins and payments emerged as the strongest and most consistent theme across firms heading into 2026. The returns are increasingly coming from "picks and shovels" rather than consumer-facing applications.

The Regulatory Unlock

Hoolie Tejwani, head of Coinbase Ventures (the most active crypto investor with 87 deals in 2025), noted that clearer market structure rules in the U.S. following the GENIUS Act will be "the next major unlock for startups."

Paradigm's investment pattern suggests they've been positioning for this moment. Their infrastructure bets become significantly more valuable when regulatory clarity enables institutional adoption. A company like Agora, building stablecoin infrastructure, benefits directly from the regulatory framework the GENIUS Act provides.

Early-Stage Remains Challenging

Despite the optimistic macro signals, most crypto investors expect early-stage funding to improve only modestly in 2026. Boris Revsin of Tribe Capital expects a rebound in both deal count and capital deployed, but "nothing close to the 2021–early 2022 peak."

Rob Hadick of Dragonfly noted a structural issue: many crypto venture firms are nearing the end of their runway from prior funds and have struggled to raise new capital. This suggests the funding environment will remain bifurcated—lots of capital for established firms like Paradigm, much less for emerging managers.


The Paradigm Playbook for 2026

Reading Paradigm's recent moves, a coherent strategy emerges:

1. Infrastructure over speculation. Every major 2024-2025 investment targets infrastructure—whether that's AI infrastructure (Nous), payment infrastructure (Agora), or blockchain infrastructure (Monad).

2. Ecosystem cultivation. The Monad investment followed by the Kuru Labs investment shows Paradigm still believes in their old playbook: back the chain, then build the ecosystem.

3. AI-crypto intersection, not pure AI. The Nous investment isn't a departure from crypto; it's a bet on AI infrastructure with crypto-native properties. The distinction matters.

4. Regulatory positioning. The stablecoin infrastructure bet makes sense precisely because regulatory clarity creates opportunities for compliant players.

5. Smaller fund, concentrated bets. The $850 million third fund is smaller than prior vintage, enabling more disciplined deployment.


What Founders Should Know

For founders seeking Paradigm capital in 2026, the pattern is clear:

Build infrastructure. Paradigm's recent investments are almost exclusively infrastructure plays. If you're building a consumer application, you're likely not their target.

Have a clear technical moat. Paradigm's "research-driven" positioning isn't just marketing. They've consistently backed projects with genuine technical differentiation—Flashbots' MEV infrastructure, Monad's parallel execution, Nous's open-source AI models.

Think multi-year. Paradigm's style involves deep involvement in project incubation over years, not quick flips. If you want a passive investor, look elsewhere.

Understand the team structure. With Huang splitting time at Tempo and Ehrsam focused on neurotechnology, the day-to-day investment team matters more than ever. Know who you're actually pitching.


Conclusion: The Quiet Confidence

The 2023 website controversy seems almost quaint now. Paradigm didn't abandon crypto—they repositioned for a more mature market.

Their recent moves suggest a firm that's betting on crypto infrastructure becoming essential plumbing for the broader financial system, not a speculative playground for retail traders. The AI investments are crypto-native; the stablecoin investments target institutional adoption; the L1 investments build ecosystems rather than chase hype.

Whether this thesis plays out remains to be seen. But for anyone trying to understand where crypto venture capital is heading in 2026, Paradigm's quiet transformation offers the clearest signal available.

The silence was never about leaving crypto. It was about waiting for the right moment to double down.


References

Crypto's Coming of Age: A16Z's 2025 Roadmap

· 24 min read
Dora Noda
Software Engineer

The A16Z State of Crypto 2025 report declares this "the year the world came onchain," marking crypto's transition from adolescent speculation to institutional utility. Released October 21, 2025, the report reveals that the crypto market has crossed $4 trillion for the first time, with traditional finance giants like BlackRock, JPMorgan, and Visa now actively offering crypto products. Most critically for builders, the infrastructure is finally ready—transaction throughput has grown 100x in five years to 3,400 TPS while costs plummeted from $24 to less than one cent on Layer 2s. The convergence of regulatory clarity (the GENIUS Act passed in July 2025), institutional adoption, and infrastructure maturation creates what A16Z calls "the enterprise adoption era."

The report identifies a massive conversion opportunity: 716 million people own crypto but only 40-70 million actively use it onchain. This 90-95% gap between passive holders and active users represents the primary target for web3 builders. Stablecoins have achieved clear product-market fit with $46 trillion in annual transaction volume—five times PayPal's throughput—and are projected to grow tenfold to $3 trillion by 2030. Meanwhile, emerging sectors like decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN) are forecasted to reach $3.5 trillion by 2028, while the AI agent economy could hit $30 trillion by 2030. For builders, the message is unambiguous: the speculation era is over, and the utility era has begun.

Infrastructure reaches prime time after years of false starts

The technical foundation that frustrated developers for years has fundamentally transformed. Blockchains now process 3,400 transactions per second collectively—on par with Nasdaq's completed trades and Stripe's Black Friday throughput—compared to fewer than 25 TPS five years ago. Transaction costs on Ethereum Layer 2 networks dropped from approximately $24 in 2021 to under a penny today, making consumer applications economically viable for the first time. This isn't incremental progress; it represents the crossing of a critical threshold where infrastructure performance no longer constrains mainstream product development.

The ecosystem dynamics have shifted dramatically as well. Solana experienced 78% growth in builder interest over two years, becoming the fastest-growing ecosystem with native applications generating $3 billion in revenue during the past year. Ethereum combined with its Layer 2s remains the top destination for new developers, though most economic activity has migrated to L2s like Arbitrum, Base, and Optimism. Notably, Hyperliquid and Solana now account for 53% of revenue-generating economic activity—a stark departure from historical Bitcoin and Ethereum dominance. This represents a genuine shift from infrastructure speculation to application-layer value creation.

Privacy and security infrastructure has matured substantially. Google searches for crypto privacy surged in 2025, while Zcash's shielded pool grew to nearly 4 million ZEC and Railgun's transaction flows surpassed $200 million monthly. The Office of Foreign Assets Control lifted sanctions on Tornado Cash, signaling regulatory acceptance of privacy tools. Zero-knowledge proof systems are now integrated across rollups, compliance tools, and even mainstream web services—Google launched a new ZK identity system this year. However, urgency is building around post-quantum cryptography, as roughly $750 billion in Bitcoin sits in addresses vulnerable to future quantum attacks, with the U.S. government planning to transition federal systems to post-quantum algorithms by 2035.

Stablecoins emerge as crypto's first undeniable product-market fit

The numbers tell a story of genuine mainstream adoption. Stablecoins processed $46 trillion in total transaction volume over the past year, up 106% year-over-year, with $9 trillion in adjusted volume after filtering out bot activity—an 87% increase that represents five times PayPal's throughput. Monthly adjusted volume approached $1.25 trillion in September 2025 alone, a new all-time high. The stablecoin supply reached a record $300+ billion, with Tether and USDC accounting for 87% of the total. Over 99% of stablecoins are USD-denominated, and more than 1% of all U.S. dollars now exist as tokenized stablecoins on public blockchains.

The macroeconomic implications extend beyond transaction volume. Stablecoins collectively hold over $150 billion in U.S. Treasuries, making them the 17th largest holder—up from 20th last year—surpassing many sovereign nations. Tether alone holds roughly $127 billion in Treasury bills. This positioning strengthens dollar dominance globally at a time when many foreign central banks are reducing their Treasury holdings. The infrastructure enables transferring dollars in less than one second for less than one cent, functioning almost anywhere in the world without gatekeepers, minimum balances, or proprietary SDKs.

The use case has fundamentally evolved. In years past, stablecoins primarily settled speculative crypto trades. Now they function as the fastest, cheapest, most global way to send dollars, with activity largely uncorrelated with broader crypto trading volume—indicating genuine non-speculative use. Stripe's acquisition of Bridge (a stablecoin infrastructure platform) just five days after A16Z's previous report declared stablecoins had found product-market fit signaled that major fintech companies recognized this shift. Circle's billion-dollar IPO in 2025, which saw shares increase 300%, marked the arrival of stablecoin issuers as legitimate mainstream financial institutions.

For builders, A16Z partner Sam Broner identifies specific near-term opportunities: small and medium businesses with painful payment costs will adopt first. Restaurants and coffee shops where 30 cents per transaction represents significant margin loss on captive audiences are prime targets. Enterprises can add the 2-3% credit card fee directly to their bottom line by switching to stablecoins. However, this creates new infrastructure needs—builders must develop solutions for fraud protection, identity verification, and other services credit card companies currently provide. The regulatory framework is now in place following the GENIUS Act's passage in July 2025, which established clear stablecoin oversight and reserve requirements.

Converting crypto's 617 million inactive users becomes the central challenge

Perhaps the report's most striking finding is the massive gap between ownership and usage. While 716 million people globally own crypto (up 16% from last year), only 40-70 million actively use crypto onchain—meaning 90-95% are passive holders. Mobile wallet users reached an all-time high of 35 million, up 20% year-over-year, but this still represents only a fraction of owners. Monthly active addresses onchain actually decreased 18% to 181 million, suggesting some cooling despite overall ownership growth.

Geographic patterns reveal distinct opportunities. Mobile wallet usage grew fastest in emerging markets: Argentina saw a 16-fold increase over three years amid its currency crisis, while Colombia, India, and Nigeria showed similarly strong growth driven by currency hedging and remittance use cases. Developed markets like Australia and South Korea lead in token-related web traffic but skew heavily toward trading and speculation rather than utility applications. This bifurcation suggests builders should pursue fundamentally different strategies based on regional needs—payment and value storage solutions for emerging markets versus sophisticated trading infrastructure for developed economies.

The passive-to-active conversion represents a fundamentally easier problem than acquiring entirely new users. As A16Z partner Daren Matsuoka emphasizes, these 617 million people already overcame the initial hurdles of acquiring crypto, understanding wallets, and navigating exchanges. They represent a pre-qualified audience waiting for applications worth their attention. The infrastructure improvements—particularly the cost reductions making microtransactions viable—now enable the consumer experiences that can drive this conversion.

Critically, the user experience remains crypto's Achilles heel despite technical progress. Self-custodying secret keys, connecting wallets, navigating multiple network endpoints, and parsing industry jargon like "NFTs" and "zkRollups" still create massive barriers. As the report acknowledges, "it's still too complicated"—the fundamentals of crypto UX remain largely unchanged since 2016. Distribution channels also constrain growth, as Apple's App Store and Google Play block or limit crypto applications. Emerging alternatives like World App's marketplace and Solana's fee-free dApp Store have shown traction, with World App onboarding hundreds of thousands of users within days of launch, but porting web2's distribution advantages onchain remains difficult outside of Telegram's TON ecosystem.

Institutional adoption transforms competitive dynamics for builders

The list of traditional finance and tech giants now offering crypto products reads like a who's who of global finance: BlackRock, Fidelity, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Mastercard, Visa, PayPal, Stripe, Robinhood, Shopify, and Circle. This isn't experimental dabbling—these are core product offerings generating substantial revenue. Robinhood's crypto revenue reached 2.5 times its equities trading business in Q2 2025. Bitcoin ETFs collectively manage $150.2 billion as of September 2025, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) cited as the most traded Bitcoin ETP launch of all time. Exchange-traded products hold over $175 billion in onchain crypto holdings, up 169% from $65 billion a year ago.

Circle's IPO performance captures the shift in sentiment. As one of 2025's top-performing IPOs with a 300% share price increase, it demonstrated that public markets now embrace crypto-native companies building legitimate financial infrastructure. The 64% increase in stablecoin mentions in SEC filings since regulatory clarity arrived shows major corporations are actively integrating this technology into their operations. Digital Asset Treasury companies and ETPs combined now hold approximately 10% of both Bitcoin and Ethereum token supplies—a concentration of institutional ownership that fundamentally changes market dynamics.

This institutional wave creates both opportunities and challenges for crypto-native builders. The total addressable market has expanded by orders of magnitude—the Global 2000 represents vast enterprise software spend, cloud infrastructure spend, and assets under management now accessible to crypto startups. However, builders face a harsh reality: these institutional customers have fundamentally different buying criteria than crypto-native users. A16Z explicitly warns that "'the best products sell themselves' is a long-lived fallacy" when selling to enterprises. What worked with crypto-native customers—breakthrough technology and community alignment—gets you only 30% of the way with institutional buyers focused on ROI, risk mitigation, compliance, and integration with legacy systems.

The report dedicates substantial attention to enterprise sales as a critical competency crypto builders must develop. Enterprises make ROI-driven decisions, not technology-driven ones. They demand structured procurement processes, legal negotiations, solutions architecture for integration, and ongoing customer success support to prevent implementation failures. Career risk considerations matter for internal champions—they need cover to justify blockchain adoption to skeptical executives. Successful builders must translate technical features into measurable business outcomes, master pricing strategies and contract negotiations, and build sales development teams sooner rather than later. As A16Z emphasizes, best GTM strategies are built through iteration over time, making early investment in sales capabilities essential.

Building opportunities concentrate in proven use cases and emerging convergence

The report identifies specific sectors already generating substantial revenue and showing clear product-market fit. Perpetual futures volumes increased nearly eight-fold in the past year, with Hyperliquid alone generating over $1 billion in annualized revenue—rivaling some centralized exchanges. Nearly one-fifth of all spot trading volume now happens on decentralized exchanges, demonstrating that DeFi has moved beyond a niche. Real-world assets reached a $30 billion market, growing nearly fourfold in two years as U.S. Treasuries, money-market funds, private credit, and real estate get tokenized. These aren't speculative bets; they're operational businesses generating measurable revenue today.

DePIN represents one of the highest-conviction forward-looking opportunities. The World Economic Forum projects the decentralized physical infrastructure networks category will grow to $3.5 trillion by 2028. Helium's network already serves 1.4 million daily active users across 111,000+ user-operated hotspots providing 5G cellular coverage. The model of using token incentives to bootstrap physical infrastructure networks has proven viable at scale. Wyoming's DUNA legal structure provides DAOs with legitimate incorporation, liability protection, and tax clarity—removing a major obstacle that previously made operating these networks legally precarious. Builders can now pursue opportunities in wireless networks, distributed energy grids, sensor networks, and transportation infrastructure with clear regulatory frameworks.

The AI-crypto convergence creates perhaps the most speculative but potentially transformative opportunities. With 88% of AI-native company revenue controlled by just OpenAI and Anthropic, and 63% of cloud infrastructure controlled by Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, crypto offers a counterbalance to AI's centralizing forces. Gartner estimates the machine customer economy could reach $30 trillion by 2030 as AI agents become autonomous economic participants. Protocol standards like x402 are emerging as financial backbones for autonomous AI agents to make payments, access APIs, and participate in markets. World has verified over 17 million people for proof-of-personhood, establishing a model for differentiating humans from AI-generated content and bots—increasingly critical as AI proliferates.

A16Z's Eddy Lazzarin highlights decentralized autonomous chatbots (DACs) as a frontier: chatbots running in Trusted Execution Environments that build social media followings, generate income from their audiences, manage crypto assets, and operate entirely autonomously. These could become the first truly autonomous billion-dollar entities. More pragmatically, AI agents need wallets to participate in DePIN networks, execute high-value gaming transactions, and operate their own blockchains. The infrastructure for AI-agent wallets, payment rails, and autonomous transaction capabilities represents greenfield territory for builders.

Strategic imperatives separate winners from the also-rans

The report outlines clear strategic shifts required for success in crypto's maturation phase. The most fundamental is what A16Z calls "hiding the wires"—successful products don't explain their underlying technology, they solve problems. Email users don't think about SMTP protocols; they click send. Credit card users don't consider payment rails; they swipe. Spotify delivers playlists, not file formats. The era of expecting users to understand EIPs, wallet providers, and network architectures is over. Builders must abstract away technical complexity, design simply, and communicate clearly. Over-engineering breeds fragility; simplicity scales.

This connects to a paradigm shift from infrastructure-first to user-first design. Previously, crypto startups chose their infrastructure—specific chains, token standards, wallet providers—which then constrained their user experience. With maturing developer tooling and abundant programmable blockspace, the model inverts: define the desired end-user experience first, then select appropriate infrastructure to enable it. Chain abstraction and modular architecture democratize this approach, allowing designers without deep technical knowledge to enter crypto. Critically, startups no longer need to over-index on specific infrastructure decisions before finding product-market fit—they can focus on actually finding product-market fit and iterate on technical choices as they learn.

The "build with, not from scratch" principle represents another strategic shift. Too many teams have been reinventing the wheel—building bespoke validator sets, consensus protocols, programming languages, and execution environments. This wastes massive time and effort while often producing specialized solutions that lack baseline functionality like compiler optimizations, developer tooling, AI programming support, and learning materials that mature platforms provide. A16Z's Joachim Neu expects more teams to leverage off-the-shelf blockchain infrastructure components in 2025—from consensus protocols and existing staked capital to proof systems—focusing instead on differentiating product value where they can add unique contributions.

Regulatory clarity enables a fundamental shift in token economics. The GENIUS Act's passage establishing stablecoin frameworks and the CLARITY Act's progression through Congress create a clear path for tokens to generate revenue via fees and accrue value to tokenholders. This completes what the report calls the "economic loop"—tokens become viable as "new digital primitives" akin to what websites were for previous internet generations. Crypto projects brought in $18 billion last year, with $4 billion flowing to tokenholders. With regulatory frameworks established, builders can design sustainable token economies with real cash flows rather than speculation-dependent models. Structures like Wyoming's DUNA give DAOs legal legitimacy, enabling them to engage in economic activity while managing tax and compliance obligations that previously operated in gray areas.

The enterprise sales imperative nobody wants to hear

Perhaps the report's most uncomfortable message for crypto-native builders is that enterprise sales capability has become non-negotiable. A16Z dedicates an entire companion piece to making this case, emphasizing that the customer base has fundamentally changed from crypto insiders to mainstream enterprises and traditional institutions. These customers don't care about breakthrough technology or community alignment—they care about return on investment, risk mitigation, integration with existing systems, and compliance frameworks. The procurement process involves lengthy negotiations over pricing models, contract duration, termination rights, support SLAs, indemnification, liability limits, and governing law considerations.

Successful crypto companies must build dedicated sales functions: sales development representatives to generate qualified leads from mainstream customers, account executives to interface with prospects and close deals, solutions architects who are deep technical experts for customer integration, and customer success teams for post-sale support. Most enterprise integration projects fail, and when they do, customers blame the product regardless of whether process issues caused the failure. Building these functions "sooner than later" is essential because best sales strategies are built through iteration over time—you can't suddenly develop enterprise sales capability when demand overwhelms you.

The mindset shift is profound. In crypto-native communities, products often found users through organic community growth, crypto Twitter virality, or Farcaster discussions. Enterprise customers don't hang out in these channels. Discovery and distribution require structured outbound strategies, partnerships with established institutions, and traditional marketing. Messaging must translate from crypto jargon into business language that CFOs and CTOs understand. Competitive positioning requires demonstrating specific, measurable advantages rather than relying on technical purity or philosophical alignment. Every step of the sales process requires deliberate strategy, not just charm or product benefits—it's "games of inches," as A16Z describes it.

This represents an existential challenge for many crypto builders who entered the space precisely because they preferred building technology to selling it. The meritocratic ideal that great products naturally find users through viral growth has proven insufficient at the enterprise level. The cognitive and resource demands of enterprise sales compete directly with engineering-focused cultures. However, the alternative is ceding the massive enterprise opportunity to traditional software companies and financial institutions that excel at sales but lack crypto-native expertise. Those who master both technical excellence and sales execution will capture disproportionate value as the world comes onchain.

Geographic and demographic patterns reveal distinct building strategies

Regional dynamics suggest wildly different approaches for builders depending on their target markets. Emerging markets show the strongest growth in actual crypto usage rather than speculation. Argentina's 16-fold increase in mobile wallet users over three years directly correlates with its currency crisis—people use crypto for value storage and payments, not trading. Colombia, India, and Nigeria follow similar patterns, with growth driven by remittances, currency hedging, and accessing dollar-denominated stablecoins when local currencies prove unreliable. These markets demand simple, reliable payment solutions with local fiat on-ramps and off-ramps, mobile-first design, and resilience to intermittent connectivity.

Developed markets like Australia and South Korea exhibit opposite behavior—high token-related web traffic but focus on trading and speculation rather than utility. These users demand sophisticated trading infrastructure, derivatives products, analytics tools, and low-latency execution. They're more likely to engage with complex DeFi protocols and advanced financial products. The infrastructure requirements and user experiences for these markets differ fundamentally from emerging market needs, suggesting specialization rather than one-size-fits-all approaches.

The report notes that 70% of crypto developers were offshore due to previous regulatory uncertainty in the United States, but this is reversing with improved clarity. The GENIUS Act and CLARITY Act signal that building in the U.S. is viable again, though most developers remain distributed globally. For builders targeting Asian markets specifically, the report emphasizes that success requires physical local presence, alignment with local ecosystems, and partnerships for legitimacy—remote-first approaches that work in Western markets often fail in Asia where relationships and on-the-ground presence matter more than the underlying technology.

The report directly addresses the elephant in the room: 13 million memecoins launched in the past year. However, launches have cooled substantially—56% fewer in September compared to January—as regulatory improvements reduce the appeal of pure speculation plays. Notably, 94% of memecoin owners also own other crypto, suggesting memecoins function more as an onramp or gateway than a destination. Many users enter crypto through memecoins drawn by social dynamics and potential returns, then gradually explore other applications and use cases.

This data point matters because critics of crypto often point to memecoin proliferation as evidence the entire industry remains a speculative casino. Stephen Diehl, a prominent crypto skeptic, published "The Case Against Crypto in 2025" arguing that crypto is "intellectual three-card monte designed to exhaust and confuse critics" that "morphs into whatever its marks most desperately want to see." He highlights use in sanctions evasion, narcotics trade money laundering, and the fact that "the only consistent thread is the promise of getting rich through speculation rather than productive work."

The A16Z report implicitly rebuts this by emphasizing the shift from speculation to utility. Stablecoin transaction volume being largely uncorrelated with broader crypto trading volumes demonstrates genuine non-speculative use. The enterprise adoption wave by JPMorgan, BlackRock, and Visa suggests legitimate institutions have found real applications beyond speculation. The $3 billion in revenue generated by Solana native applications and Hyperliquid's $1 billion in annualized revenue represent actual value creation, not just speculative trading. The convergence toward proven use cases—payments, remittances, tokenized real-world assets, decentralized infrastructure—indicates market maturation even as speculative elements persist.

For builders, the strategic implication is clear: focus on use cases with genuine utility that solve real problems rather than speculative instruments. The regulatory environment is improving for legitimate applications while becoming more hostile to pure speculation. Enterprise customers demand compliance and legitimate business models. The passive-to-active user conversion depends on applications worth using beyond price speculation. Memecoins may serve as marketing or community-building tools, but sustainable businesses will be built on infrastructure, payments, DeFi, DePIN, and AI integration.

What mainstream really means and why 2025 is different

The report's declaration that crypto has "left its adolescence and entered adulthood" isn't mere rhetoric—it reflects concrete shifts across multiple dimensions. Three years ago when A16Z started this report series, blockchains were "much slower, more expensive, and less reliable." Transaction costs that made consumer applications economically nonviable, throughput that limited scale to niche use cases, and reliability issues that prevented enterprise adoption have all been addressed through Layer 2s, improved consensus mechanisms, and infrastructure optimization. The 100x throughput improvement represents crossing from "interesting technology" to "production-ready infrastructure."

The regulatory transformation particularly stands out. The United States reversed its "formerly antagonistic stance toward crypto" through bipartisan legislation. The GENIUS Act providing stablecoin clarity and the CLARITY Act establishing market structure passed with support from both parties—a remarkable achievement for a previously polarizing issue. Executive Order 14178 reversed earlier anti-crypto directives and created a cross-agency task force. This isn't just permission; it's active support for the industry's development balanced with investor protection concerns. Other jurisdictions are following suit—the UK is exploring issuing government bonds onchain through the FCA sandbox, signaling that sovereign debt tokenization may become normalized.

The institutional participation represents genuine mainstreaming rather than exploratory pilots. When BlackRock's Bitcoin ETP becomes the most traded launch of all time, when Circle IPOs with a 300% pop, when Stripe acquires stablecoin infrastructure for over a billion dollars, when Robinhood generates 2.5x more revenue from crypto than equities—these aren't experiments. These are strategic bets by sophisticated institutions with massive resources and regulatory scrutiny. Their participation validates crypto's legitimacy and brings distribution advantages that crypto-native companies cannot match. If development continues along current trajectories, crypto becomes deeply integrated into everyday financial services rather than remaining a separate category.

The shift in use cases from speculation to utility represents perhaps the most important transformation. In years past, stablecoins primarily settled crypto trades between exchanges. Now they're the fastest, cheapest way to send dollars globally, with transaction patterns uncorrelated with crypto price movements. Real-world assets aren't a future promise; $30 billion in tokenized Treasuries, credit, and real estate operate today. DePIN isn't vaporware; Helium serves 1.4 million daily users. Perpetual futures DEXs don't just exist; they generate over $1 billion in annual revenue. The economic loop is closing—networks generate real value, fees accrue to tokenholders, and sustainable business models emerge beyond speculation and venture capital subsidy.

The path forward requires uncomfortable evolution

The synthesis of A16Z's analysis points to an uncomfortable truth for many crypto-native builders: succeeding in crypto's mainstream era requires becoming less crypto-native in approach. The technical purity that built the infrastructure must give way to user experience pragmatism. The community-driven go-to-market that worked in crypto's early days must be supplemented—or replaced—by enterprise sales capabilities. The ideological alignment that motivated early adopters won't matter to enterprises evaluating ROI. The transparent, on-chain operations that defined crypto's ethos must sometimes be hidden behind simple interfaces that never mention blockchains.

This doesn't mean abandoning crypto's core value propositions—permissionless innovation, composability, global accessibility, and user ownership remain differentiating advantages. Rather, it means recognizing that mainstream adoption requires meeting users and enterprises where they are, not expecting them to climb the learning curve crypto natives already conquered. The 617 million passive holders and billions of potential new users won't learn to use complex wallets, understand gas optimization, or care about consensus mechanisms. They'll use crypto when it solves their problems better than alternatives while being equally or more convenient.

The opportunity is immense but time-limited. Infrastructure readiness, regulatory clarity, and institutional interest have aligned in a rare confluence. However, traditional financial institutions and tech giants now have clear paths to integrate crypto into their existing products. If crypto-native builders don't capture the mainstream opportunity through superior execution, well-resourced incumbents with established distribution will. The next phase of crypto's evolution won't be won by the most innovative technology or the purest decentralization—it will be won by the teams that combine technical excellence with enterprise sales execution, abstract complexity behind delightful user experiences, and focus relentlessly on use cases with genuine product-market fit.

The data supports cautious optimism. Market capitalization at $4 trillion, stablecoin volumes rivaling global payment networks, institutional adoption accelerating, and regulatory frameworks emerging suggest the foundation is solid. DePIN's projected growth to $3.5 trillion by 2028, the AI agent economy potentially reaching $30 trillion by 2030, and stablecoins scaling to $3 trillion all represent genuine opportunities if builders execute effectively. The shift from 40-70 million active users toward the 716 million who already own crypto—and eventually billions beyond—is achievable with the right products, distribution strategies, and user experiences. Whether crypto-native builders rise to meet this moment or cede the opportunity to traditional tech and finance will define the industry's next decade.

Conclusion: The infrastructure era ends, the application era begins

A16Z's State of Crypto 2025 report marks an inflection point—the problems that constrained crypto for years have been substantially solved, revealing that infrastructure was never the primary barrier to mainstream adoption. With 100x throughput improvements, sub-penny transaction costs, regulatory clarity, and institutional support, the excuse that "we're still building the rails" no longer applies. The challenge has shifted entirely to the application layer: converting passive holders to active users, abstracting complexity behind intuitive experiences, mastering enterprise sales, and focusing on use cases with genuine utility rather than speculative appeal.

The most actionable insight is perhaps the most prosaic: crypto builders must become great product companies first and crypto companies second. The technical foundation exists. The regulatory frameworks are emerging. The institutions are entering. What's missing are applications that mainstream users and enterprises want to use not because they believe in decentralization but because they work better than alternatives. Stablecoins achieved this by being faster, cheaper, and more accessible than traditional dollar transfers. The next wave of successful crypto products will follow the same pattern—solving real problems with measurably superior solutions that happen to use blockchains rather than leading with blockchain technology seeking problems.

The 2025 report ultimately poses a challenge to the entire crypto ecosystem: the adolescent phase where experimentation, speculation, and infrastructure development dominated is over. Crypto has the tools, the attention, and the opportunity to remake global financial systems, upgrade payment infrastructure, enable autonomous AI economies, and create genuine user ownership of digital platforms. Whether the industry graduates to genuine mainstream utility or remains a niche speculative asset class depends on execution over the next few years. For builders entering or operating in web3, the message is clear—the infrastructure is ready, the market is open, and the time to build products that matter is now.

How Celestia's Data Availability Sampling Hits 1 Terabit Per Second: The Technical Deep Dive

· 13 min read
Dora Noda
Software Engineer

On January 13, 2026, Celestia shattered expectations with a single benchmark: 1 terabit per second of data throughput across 498 distributed nodes. For context, that's enough bandwidth to process the entire daily transaction volume of Ethereum's largest Layer 2 rollups—in less than a second.

But the real story isn't the headline number. It's the cryptographic infrastructure that makes it possible: Data Availability Sampling (DAS), a breakthrough that allows resource-constrained light nodes to verify blockchain data availability without downloading entire blocks. As rollups race to scale beyond Ethereum's native blob storage, understanding how Celestia achieves this throughput—and why it matters for rollup economics—has never been more critical.

The Data Availability Bottleneck: Why Rollups Need a Better Solution

Blockchain scalability has long been constrained by a fundamental trade-off: how do you verify that transaction data is actually available without requiring every node to download and store everything? This is the data availability problem, and it's the primary bottleneck for rollup scaling.

Ethereum's approach—requiring every full node to download complete blocks—creates an accessibility barrier. As block sizes grow, fewer participants can afford the bandwidth and storage to run full nodes, threatening decentralization. Rollups posting data to Ethereum L1 face prohibitive costs: at peak demand, a single batch can cost thousands of dollars in gas fees.

Enter modular data availability layers. By separating data availability from execution and consensus, protocols like Celestia, EigenDA, and Avail promise to slash rollup costs while maintaining security guarantees. Celestia's innovation? A sampling technique that inverts the verification model: instead of downloading everything to verify availability, light nodes randomly sample tiny fragments and achieve statistical confidence that the full dataset exists.

Data Availability Sampling Explained: How Light Nodes Verify Without Downloading

At its core, DAS is a probabilistic verification mechanism. Here's how it works:

Random Sampling and Confidence Building

Light nodes don't download entire blocks. Instead, they conduct multiple rounds of random sampling for small portions of block data. Each successful sample increases confidence that the complete block is available.

The math is elegant: if a malicious validator withholds even a small percentage of block data, honest light nodes will detect the unavailability with high probability after just a few sampling rounds. This creates a security model where even resource-limited devices can participate in data availability verification.

Specifically, every light node randomly chooses a set of unique coordinates in an extended data matrix and queries bridge nodes for the corresponding data shares plus Merkle proofs. If the light node receives valid responses for each query, statistical probability guarantees the whole block's data is available.

2D Reed-Solomon Encoding: The Mathematical Foundation

Celestia employs a 2-dimensional Reed-Solomon encoding scheme to make sampling both efficient and fraud-resistant. Here's the technical flow:

  1. Block data is split into k × k chunks, forming a data square
  2. Reed-Solomon erasure coding extends this to a 2k × 2k matrix (adding redundancy)
  3. Merkle roots are computed for each row and column of the extended matrix
  4. The Merkle root of these roots becomes the block data commitment in the block header

This approach has a critical property: if any portion of the extended matrix is missing, the encoding breaks down, and light nodes will detect inconsistencies when verifying Merkle proofs. An attacker can't withhold data selectively without being caught.

Namespaced Merkle Trees: Rollup-Specific Data Isolation

Here's where Celestia's architecture shines for multi-rollup environments: Namespaced Merkle Trees (NMTs).

A standard Merkle tree groups data arbitrarily. An NMT, however, tags every node with the minimum and maximum namespace identifiers of its children, and orders leaves by namespace. This enables rollups to:

  • Download only their own data from the DA layer
  • Prove completeness of their namespace's data with a Merkle proof
  • Ignore irrelevant data from other rollups entirely

For a rollup operator, this means you're not paying bandwidth costs to download data from competing chains. You fetch exactly what you need, verify it with cryptographic proofs, and move on. This is a massive efficiency gain compared to monolithic chains where all participants must process all data.

The Matcha Upgrade: Scaling to 128MB Blocks

In 2025, Celestia activated the Matcha upgrade, a watershed moment for modular data availability. Here's what changed:

Block Size Expansion

Matcha increases maximum block size from 8MB to 128MB—a 16x capacity boost. This translates to:

  • Data square size: 128 → 512
  • Maximum transaction size: 2MB → 8MB
  • Sustained throughput: 21.33 MB/s in testnet (April 2025)

To put this in perspective, Ethereum's target blob count is 6 per block (roughly 0.75 MB), expandable to 9 blobs. Celestia's 128MB blocks dwarf this capacity by over 100x.

High-Throughput Block Propagation

The constraint wasn't just block size—it was block propagation speed. Matcha introduces a new propagation mechanism (CIP-38) that safely disseminates 128MB blocks across the network without causing validator desynchronization.

In testnet, the network sustained 6-second block times with 128MB blocks, achieving 21.33 MB/s throughput. This represents 16x the current mainnet capacity.

Storage Cost Reduction

One of the most overlooked economic changes: Matcha reduced the minimum data pruning window from 30 days to 7 days + 1 hour (CIP-34).

For bridge nodes, this slashes storage requirements from 30TB to 7TB at projected throughput levels. Lower operational costs for infrastructure providers translate to cheaper data availability for rollups.

Token Economics Overhaul

Matcha also improved TIA token economics:

  • Inflation cut: From 5% to 2.5% annually
  • Validator commission increase: Max raised from 10% to 20%
  • Improved collateral properties: Making TIA more suitable for DeFi use cases

Combined, these changes position Celestia for the next phase: scaling toward 1 GB/s throughput and beyond.

Rollup Economics: Why 50% DA Market Share Matters

As of early 2026, Celestia holds approximately 50% of the data availability market, having processed over 160 GB of rollup data. This dominance reflects real-world adoption by rollup developers who prioritize cost and scalability.

Cost Comparison: Celestia vs Ethereum Blobs

Celestia's fee model is straightforward: rollups pay per blob based on size and current gas prices. Unlike execution layers where computation dominates, data availability is fundamentally about bandwidth and storage—resources that scale more predictably with hardware improvements.

For rollup operators, the math is compelling:

  • Ethereum L1 posting: At peak demand, batch submission can cost $1,000–$10,000+ in gas
  • Celestia DA: Sub-dollar costs per batch for equivalent data

This 100x+ cost reduction is why rollups are migrating to modular DA solutions. Cheaper data availability directly translates to lower transaction fees for end users.

The Rollup Incentive Structure

Celestia's economic model aligns incentives:

  1. Rollups pay for blob storage proportional to data size
  2. Validators earn fees for securing the DA layer
  3. Bridge nodes serve data to light nodes and earn service fees
  4. Light nodes sample data for free, contributing to security

This creates a flywheel: as more rollups adopt Celestia, validator revenue increases, attracting more stakers, which strengthens security, which attracts more rollups.

The Competition: EigenDA, Avail, and Ethereum Blobs

Celestia's 50% market share is under siege. Three major competitors are scaling aggressively:

EigenDA: Ethereum-Native Restaking

EigenDA leverages EigenLayer's restaking infrastructure to offer high-throughput data availability for Ethereum rollups. Key advantages:

  • Economic security: Secured by restaked ETH (currently 93.9% of restaking market)
  • Tight Ethereum integration: Native compatibility with Ethereum's blob market
  • Highest throughput claims: Though previous versions lacked active economic security

Critics point out that EigenDA's reliance on restaking introduces cascade risk: if an AVS experiences slashing, it could propagate to Lido stETH holders and destabilize the broader LST market.

Avail: Universal DA for All Chains

Unlike Celestia's Cosmos focus and EigenDA's Ethereum orientation, Avail positions itself as a universal DA layer compatible with any blockchain architecture:

  • UTXO, Account, and Object model support: Works with Bitcoin L2s, EVM chains, and Move-based systems
  • Modular design: Separates DA from consensus entirely
  • Cross-ecosystem vision: Aims to serve as the neutral DA layer for all blockchains

Avail's challenge? It's the newest entrant, lagging in live rollup integrations compared to Celestia and EigenDA.

Ethereum Native Blobs: EIP-4844 and Beyond

Ethereum's EIP-4844 (Dencun upgrade) introduced blob-carrying transactions, offering rollups a cheaper data posting alternative to calldata. Current capacity:

  • Target: 6 blobs per block (~0.75 MB)
  • Maximum: 9 blobs per block (~1.125 MB)
  • Future expansion: PeerDAS and zkEVM upgrades targeting 10,000+ TPS

However, Ethereum blobs come with trade-offs:

  • Short retention window: Data is pruned after ~18 days
  • Shared resource contention: All rollups compete for the same blob space
  • Limited scalability: Even with PeerDAS, blob capacity maxes out far below Celestia's roadmap

For rollups prioritizing Ethereum alignment, blobs are attractive. For those needing massive throughput and long-term data retention, Celestia remains the better fit.

Fibre Blockspace: The 1 Terabit Vision

On January 14, 2026, Celestia co-founder Mustafa Al-Bassam unveiled Fibre Blockspace—a new protocol targeting 1 terabit per second of throughput with millisecond latency. This represents a 1,500x improvement over the original roadmap targets from just a year prior.

Benchmark Details

The team achieved the 1 Tbps benchmark using:

  • 498 nodes distributed across North America
  • GCP instances with 48-64 vCPUs and 90-128GB RAM each
  • 34-45 Gbps network links per instance

Under these controlled conditions, the protocol sustained 1 terabit per second data throughput—a staggering leap in blockchain performance.

ZODA Encoding: 881x Faster Than KZG

At Fibre's core is ZODA, a novel encoding protocol that Celestia claims processes data 881x faster than KZG commitment-based alternatives used by EigenDA and Ethereum blobs.

KZG commitments (Kate-Zaverucha-Goldberg polynomial commitments) are cryptographically elegant but computationally expensive. ZODA trades some cryptographic properties for massive speed gains, making terabit-scale throughput achievable on commodity hardware.

The Vision: Every Market Comes Onchain

Al-Bassam's roadmap statement captures Celestia's ambition:

"If 10KB/s enabled AMMs, and 10MB/s enabled onchain orderbooks, then 1 Tbps is the leap that enables every market to come onchain."

The implication: with sufficient data availability bandwidth, financial markets currently dominated by centralized exchanges—spot, derivatives, options, prediction markets—could migrate to transparent, permissionless blockchain infrastructure.

Reality Check: Benchmarks vs. Production

Benchmark conditions rarely match real-world chaos. The 1 Tbps result was achieved in a controlled testnet environment with high-performance cloud instances. The real test comes when:

  • Actual rollups push production workloads
  • Network conditions vary (latency spikes, packet loss, asymmetric bandwidth)
  • Adversarial validators attempt data withholding attacks

Celestia's team acknowledges this: Fibre runs parallel to the existing L1 DA layer, giving users a choice between battle-tested infrastructure and cutting-edge experimental throughput.

What This Means for Rollup Developers

If you're building a rollup, Celestia's DAS architecture offers compelling advantages:

When to Choose Celestia

  • High-throughput applications: Gaming, social networks, micropayments
  • Cost-sensitive use cases: Rollups targeting sub-cent transaction fees
  • Data-intensive workflows: AI inference, decentralized storage integrations
  • Multi-rollup ecosystems: Projects launching multiple specialized rollups

When to Stick with Ethereum Blobs

  • Ethereum alignment: If your rollup values Ethereum's social consensus and security
  • Simplified architecture: Blobs offer tighter integration with Ethereum tooling
  • Lower complexity: Less infrastructure to manage (no separate DA layer)

Integration Considerations

Celestia's DA layer integrates with major rollup frameworks:

  • Polygon CDK: Easily pluggable DA component
  • OP Stack: Custom DA adapters available
  • Arbitrum Orbit: Community-built integrations
  • Rollkit: Native Celestia support

For developers, adopting Celestia often means swapping out the data availability module in your rollup stack—minimal changes to execution or settlement logic.

The Data Availability Wars: What Comes Next

The modular blockchain thesis is being stress-tested in real time. Celestia's 50% market share, EigenDA's restaking momentum, and Avail's universal positioning set up a three-way competition for rollup mindshare.

  1. Throughput escalation: Celestia targets 1 GB/s → 1 Tbps; EigenDA and Avail will respond
  2. Economic security models: Will restaking risks catch up to EigenDA? Can Celestia's validator set scale?
  3. Ethereum blob expansion: PeerDAS and zkEVM upgrades could shift cost dynamics
  4. Cross-chain DA: Avail's universal vision vs. ecosystem-specific solutions

The BlockEden.xyz Angle

For infrastructure providers, supporting multiple DA layers is becoming table stakes. Rollup developers need reliable RPC access not just to Ethereum, but to Celestia, EigenDA, and Avail.

BlockEden.xyz offers high-performance RPC infrastructure for Celestia and 10+ blockchain ecosystems, enabling rollup teams to build on modular stacks without managing node infrastructure. Explore our data availability APIs to accelerate your rollup deployment.

Conclusion: Data Availability as the New Competitive Moat

Celestia's Data Availability Sampling isn't just an incremental improvement—it's a paradigm shift in how blockchains verify state. By enabling light nodes to participate in security through probabilistic sampling, Celestia democratizes verification in a way monolithic chains cannot.

The Matcha upgrade's 128MB blocks and the Fibre vision's 1 Tbps throughput represent inflection points for rollup economics. When data availability costs drop 100x, entirely new application categories become viable: high-frequency trading onchain, real-time multiplayer gaming, AI agent coordination at scale.

But technology alone doesn't determine winners. The DA wars will be decided by three factors:

  1. Rollup adoption: Which chains actually commit to production deployments?
  2. Economic sustainability: Can these protocols maintain low costs as usage scales?
  3. Security resilience: How well do sampling-based systems resist sophisticated attacks?

Celestia's 50% market share and 160 GB of processed rollup data prove the concept works. Now the question shifts from "can modular DA scale?" to "which DA layer will dominate the rollup economy?"

For builders navigating this landscape, the advice is clear: abstract your DA layer. Design rollups to swap between Celestia, EigenDA, Ethereum blobs, and Avail without re-architecting. The data availability wars are just beginning, and the winners may not be who we expect.


Sources:

DePIN's Enterprise Pivot: From Token Speculation to $166M ARR Reality

· 13 min read
Dora Noda
Software Engineer

When the World Economic Forum projects a sector will grow from $19 billion to $3.5 trillion by 2028, you should pay attention. When that same sector generates $166 million in annual recurring revenue from real enterprise customers—not token emissions—it's time to stop dismissing it as crypto hype.

Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN) have quietly undergone a fundamental transformation. While speculators chase memecoins, a handful of DePIN projects are building billion-dollar businesses by delivering what centralized cloud providers cannot: 60-80% cost savings with production-grade reliability. The shift from tokenomics theater to enterprise infrastructure is rewriting blockchain's value proposition—and traditional cloud giants are taking notice.

The $3.5 Trillion Opportunity Hidden in Plain Sight

The numbers tell a story that most crypto investors have missed. The DePIN ecosystem expanded from $5.2 billion in market cap (September 2024) to $19.2 billion by September 2025—a 269% surge that barely made headlines in an industry obsessed with layer-1 narratives. Nearly 250 tracked projects now span six verticals: compute, storage, wireless, energy, sensors, and bandwidth.

But market cap is a distraction. The real story is revenue density. DePIN projects now generate an estimated $72 million in annual on-chain revenue across the sector, trading at 10-25x revenue multiples—a dramatic compression from the 1,000x+ valuations of the 2021 cycle. This isn't just valuation discipline; it's evidence of fundamental business model maturation.

The World Economic Forum's $3.5 trillion projection for 2028 isn't based on token price dreams. It reflects the convergence of three massive infrastructure shifts:

  1. AI compute demand explosion: Machine learning workloads are projected to consume 24% of U.S. electricity by 2030, creating insatiable demand for distributed GPU networks.
  2. 5G/6G buildout economics: Telecom operators need to deploy edge infrastructure at 10x the density of 4G networks, but at lower capital expenditure per site.
  3. Cloud cost rebellion: Enterprises are finally questioning why AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud impose 30-70% markups on commodity compute and storage.

DePIN isn't replacing centralized infrastructure tomorrow. But when Aethir delivers 1.5 billion compute hours to 150+ enterprise clients, and Helium signs partnerships with T-Mobile, AT&T, and Telefónica, the "experimental technology" narrative collapses.

From Airdrops to Annual Recurring Revenue

The DePIN sector's transformation is best understood through the lens of actual businesses generating eight-figure revenue, not token inflation schemes masquerading as economic activity.

Aethir: The GPU Powerhouse

Aethir isn't just the largest DePIN revenue generator—it's rewriting the economics of cloud computing. $166 million ARR by Q3 2025, derived from 150+ paying enterprise customers across AI training, inference, gaming, and Web3 infrastructure. This isn't theoretical throughput; it's billing from customers like AI model training operations, gaming studios, and AI agent platforms that require guaranteed compute availability.

The scale is staggering: 440,000+ GPU containers deployed across 94 countries, delivering over 1.5 billion compute hours. For context, that's more revenue than Filecoin (135x larger by market cap), Render (455x), and Bittensor (14x) combined—measured by revenue-to-market-cap efficiency.

Aethir's enterprise strategy reveals why DePIN can win against centralized clouds: 70% cost reduction versus AWS while maintaining SLA guarantees that would make traditional infrastructure providers jealous. By aggregating idle GPUs from data centers, gaming cafes, and enterprise hardware, Aethir creates a supply-side marketplace that undercuts hyperscalers on price while matching them on performance.

Q1 2026 targets are even more ambitious: doubling the global compute footprint to capture accelerating AI infrastructure demand. Partnerships with Filecoin Foundation (for perpetual storage integration) and major cloud gaming platforms position Aethir as the first DePIN project to achieve true enterprise stickiness—recurring contracts, not one-time protocol interactions.

Grass: The Data Scraping Network

While Aethir monetizes compute, Grass proves DePIN's flexibility across infrastructure categories. $33 million ARR from a fundamentally different value proposition: decentralized web scraping and data collection for AI training pipelines.

Grass turned consumer bandwidth into a tradeable commodity. Users install a lightweight client that routes AI training data requests through their residential IP addresses, solving the "anti-bot detection" problem that plagues centralized scraping services. AI companies pay premium rates to access clean, geographically diverse training data without triggering rate limits or CAPTCHA walls.

The economics work because Grass captures margin that would otherwise flow to proxy service providers (Bright Data, Smartproxy) while offering better coverage. For users, it's passive income from unutilized bandwidth. For AI labs, it's reliable access to web-scale data at 50-60% cost savings.

Bittensor: Decentralized Intelligence Markets

Bittensor's approach differs fundamentally from infrastructure-as-a-service models. Instead of selling compute or bandwidth, it monetizes AI model outputs through a marketplace of specialized "subnets"—each focused on specific machine learning tasks like image generation, text completion, or predictive analytics.

By September 2025, over 128 active subnets collectively generate approximately $20 million in annual revenue, with the leading inference-as-a-service subnet projected to hit $10.4 million individually. Developers access Bittensor-powered models through OpenAI-compatible APIs, abstracting away the decentralized infrastructure while delivering cost-competitive inference.

Institutional validation arrived with Grayscale's Bittensor Trust (GTAO) in December 2025, followed by public companies like xTAO and TAO Synergies accumulating over 70,000 TAO tokens (~$26 million). Custody providers including BitGo, Copper, and Crypto.com integrated Bittensor through Yuma's validator, signaling that DePIN is no longer too "exotic" for traditional finance infrastructure.

Render Network: From 3D Rendering to Enterprise AI

Render's trajectory shows how DePIN projects evolve beyond initial use cases. Originally focused on distributed 3D rendering for artists and studios, Render pivoted toward AI compute as demand shifted.

July 2025 metrics: 1.49 million frames rendered, $207,900 in USDC fees burned—with 35% of all-time frames rendered in 2025 alone, demonstrating accelerating adoption. Q4 2025 brought enterprise GPU onboarding through RNP-021, integrating NVIDIA H200 and AMD MI300X chips to serve AI inference and training workloads alongside rendering tasks.

Render's economic model burns fee revenue (207,900 USDC in a single month), creating deflationary tokenomics that contrast sharply with inflationary DePIN projects. As enterprise GPU onboarding scales, Render positions itself as the premium-tier option: higher performance, audited hardware, curated supply—targeting enterprises that need guaranteed compute SLAs, not hobbyist node operators.

Helium: Telecom's Decentralized Disruption

Helium's wireless networks prove DePIN can infiltrate trillion-dollar incumbent industries. Partnerships with T-Mobile, AT&T, and Telefónica aren't pilot programs—they're production deployments where Helium's decentralized hotspots augment macro cell coverage in hard-to-reach areas.

The economics are compelling for telecom operators: Helium's community-deployed hotspots cost a fraction of traditional cell tower buildouts, solving the "last-mile coverage" problem without capital-intensive infrastructure investments. For hotspot operators, it's recurring revenue from real data usage, not token speculation.

Messari's Q3 2025 State of Helium report highlights sustained network growth and data transfer volume, with the blockchain-in-telecom sector projected to grow from $1.07 billion (2024) to $7.25 billion by 2030. Helium is capturing meaningful market share in a segment that traditionally resisted disruption.

The 60-80% Cost Advantage: Economics That Force Adoption

DePIN's value proposition isn't ideological decentralization—it's brutal cost efficiency. When Fluence Network claims 60-80% savings versus centralized clouds, they're comparing apples to apples: equivalent compute capacity, SLA guarantees, and availability zones.

The cost advantage stems from structural differences:

  1. Elimination of platform margin: AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud impose 30-70% markups on underlying infrastructure costs. DePIN protocols replace these markups with algorithmic matching and transparent fee structures.

  2. Utilization of stranded capacity: Centralized clouds must provision for peak demand, leaving capacity idle during off-hours. DePIN aggregates globally distributed resources that operate at higher average utilization rates.

  3. Geographic arbitrage: DePIN networks tap into regions with lower energy costs and underutilized hardware, routing workloads dynamically to optimize price-performance ratios.

  4. Open market competition: Fluence's protocol, for example, fosters competition among independent compute providers, driving prices down without requiring multi-year reserved instance commitments.

Traditional cloud providers offer comparable discounts—AWS Reserved Instances save up to 72%, Azure Reserved VM Instances hit 72%, Azure Hybrid Benefit reaches 85%—but these require 1-3 year commitments with upfront payment. DePIN delivers similar savings on-demand, with spot pricing that adjusts in real-time.

For enterprises managing variable workloads (AI model experimentation, rendering farms, scientific computing), the flexibility is game-changing. Launch 10,000 GPUs for a weekend, pay spot rates 70% below AWS, and shut down infrastructure Monday morning—no capacity planning, no wasted reserved capacity.

Institutional Capital Follows Real Revenue

The shift from retail speculation to institutional allocation is quantifiable. DePIN startups raised approximately $1 billion in 2025, with $744 million invested across 165+ projects between January 2024 and July 2025 (plus 89+ undisclosed deals). This isn't dumb money chasing airdrops—it's calculated deployment from infrastructure-focused VCs.

Two funds signal institutional seriousness:

  • Borderless Capital's $100M DePIN Fund III (September 2024): Backed by peaq, Solana Foundation, Jump Crypto, and IoTeX, targeting projects with demonstrated product-market fit and revenue traction.

  • Entrée Capital's $300M Fund (December 2025): Explicitly focused on AI agents and DePIN infrastructure at pre-seed through Series A, betting on the convergence of autonomous systems and decentralized infrastructure.

Importantly, these aren't crypto-native funds hedging into infrastructure—they're traditional infrastructure investors recognizing that DePIN offers superior risk-adjusted returns compared to centralized cloud competitors. When you can fund a project trading at 15x revenue (Aethir) versus hyperscalers at 10x revenue but with monopolistic moats, the DePIN asymmetry becomes obvious.

Newer DePIN projects are also learning from 2021's tokenomics mistakes. Protocols launched in the past 12 months achieved average fully diluted valuations of $760 million—nearly double the valuations of projects launched two years ago—because they've avoided the emission death spirals that plagued early networks. Tighter token supply, revenue-based unlocks, and burn mechanisms create sustainable economics that attract long-term capital.

From Speculation to Infrastructure: What Changes Now

January 2026 marked a turning point: DePIN sector revenue hit $150 million in a single month, driven by enterprise demand for computing power, mapping data, and wireless bandwidth. This wasn't a token price pump—it was billed usage from customers solving real problems.

The implications cascade across the crypto ecosystem:

For developers: DePIN infrastructure finally offers production-grade alternatives to AWS. Aethir's 440,000 GPUs can train LLMs, Filecoin can store petabytes of data with cryptographic verification, Helium can deliver IoT connectivity without AT&T contracts. The blockchain stack is complete.

For enterprises: Cost optimization is no longer a choice between performance and price. DePIN delivers both, with transparent pricing, no vendor lock-in, and geographic flexibility that centralized clouds can't match. CFOs will notice.

For investors: Revenue multiples are compressing toward tech sector norms (10-25x), creating entry points that were impossible during 2021's speculative mania. Aethir at 15x revenue is cheaper than most SaaS companies, with faster growth rates.

For tokenomics: Projects that generate real revenue can burn tokens (Render), distribute protocol fees (Bittensor), or fund ecosystem growth (Helium) without relying on inflationary emissions. Sustainable economic loops replace Ponzi reflexivity.

The World Economic Forum's $3.5 trillion projection suddenly seems conservative. If DePIN captures just 10% of cloud infrastructure spending by 2028 (~$60 billion annually at current cloud growth rates), and projects trade at 15x revenue, you're looking at $900 billion in sector market cap—46x from today's $19.2 billion base.

What BlockEden.xyz Builders Should Know

The DePIN revolution isn't happening in isolation—it's creating infrastructure dependencies that Web3 developers will increasingly rely on. When you're building on Sui, Aptos, or Ethereum, your dApp's off-chain compute requirements (AI inference, data indexing, IPFS storage) will increasingly route through DePIN providers instead of AWS.

Why it matters: Cost efficiency. If your dApp serves AI-generated content (NFT creation, game assets, trading signals), running inference through Bittensor or Aethir could cut your AWS bill by 70%. For projects operating on tight margins, that's the difference between sustainability and burn rate death.

BlockEden.xyz provides enterprise-grade API infrastructure for Sui, Aptos, Ethereum, and 15+ blockchain networks. As DePIN protocols mature into production-ready infrastructure, our multichain approach ensures developers can integrate decentralized compute, storage, and bandwidth alongside reliable RPC access. Explore our API marketplace to build on foundations designed to last.

The Enterprise Pivot Is Already Complete

DePIN isn't coming—it's here. When Aethir generates $166 million ARR from 150 enterprise customers, when Helium partners with T-Mobile and AT&T, when Bittensor serves AI inference through OpenAI-compatible APIs, the "experimental technology" label no longer applies.

The sector has crossed the chasm from crypto-native adoption to enterprise validation. Institutional capital is no longer funding potential—it's funding proven revenue models with cost structures that centralized competitors can't match.

For blockchain infrastructure, the implications are profound. DePIN proves that decentralization isn't just an ideological preference—it's a competitive advantage. When you can deliver 70% cost savings with SLA guarantees, you don't need to convince enterprises about the philosophy of Web3. You just need to show them the invoice.

The $3.5 trillion opportunity isn't a prediction. It's math. And the projects building real businesses—not token casinos—are positioning themselves to capture it.


Sources:

The $20 Billion Prediction Wars: How Kalshi and Polymarket Are Turning Information Into Wall Street's Newest Asset Class

· 8 min read
Dora Noda
Software Engineer

When Intercontinental Exchange—the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange—wrote a $2 billion check to Polymarket in October 2025, it wasn't betting on a crypto startup. It was buying a seat at the table for something far bigger: the transformation of information itself into a tradeable asset class. Six months later, prediction markets are processing $5.9 billion in weekly volume, AI agents contribute 30% of trades, and hedge funds are using these platforms to hedge Fed decisions with more precision than Treasury futures ever offered.

Welcome to Information Finance—the fastest-growing segment in crypto, and perhaps the most consequential infrastructure shift since stablecoins went mainstream.

From Speculative Casino to Institutional Infrastructure

The numbers tell the story of an industry that has fundamentally reinvented itself. In 2024, prediction markets were niche curiosities—entertaining for political junkies, dismissed by serious money. By January 2026, Piper Sandler anticipates the industry will see over 445 billion contracts traded this year, representing $222.5 billion in notional volume—up from 95 billion contracts in 2025.

The catalysts were threefold:

Regulatory Clarity: The CLARITY Act of 2025 officially classified event contracts as "digital commodities" under CFTC oversight. This regulatory green light solved the compliance hurdles that had kept major banks on the sidelines. Kalshi's May 2025 legal victory over the CFTC established that event contracts are derivatives, not gambling—creating a federal precedent that allows the platform to operate nationally while sportsbooks face state-by-state licensing.

Institutional Investment: Polymarket secured $2 billion from ICE at a $9 billion valuation, with the NYSE parent integrating prediction data into institutional feeds. Not to be outdone, Kalshi raised $1.3 billion across two rounds—$300 million in October, then $1 billion in December from Paradigm, a16z, Sequoia, and ARK Invest—reaching an $11 billion valuation. Combined, these two platforms are now worth $20 billion.

AI Integration: Autonomous AI systems now contribute over 30% of total volume. Tools like RSS3's MCP Server enable AI agents to scan news feeds and execute trades without human intervention—transforming prediction markets into 24/7 information processing engines.

The Great Prediction War: Kalshi vs. Polymarket

As of January 23, 2026, the competition is fierce. Kalshi commands 66.4% of market share, processing over $2 billion weekly. However, Polymarket holds approximately 47% odds of finishing the year as volume leader, while Kalshi follows at 34%. Newcomers like Robinhood are capturing 20% of market share—a reminder that this space remains wide open.

The platforms have carved out different niches:

Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange, giving it access to U.S. retail traders but subjecting it to stricter oversight. Roughly 90% of its $43 billion in notional volume comes from sports-related event contracts. State gaming authorities in Nevada and Connecticut have issued cease-and-desist orders, arguing these contracts overlap with unlicensed gambling—a legal friction that creates uncertainty.

Polymarket runs on crypto rails (Polygon), offering permissionless access globally but facing regulatory pressure in key markets. European MiCA regulations require full authorization for EU access in 2026. The platform's decentralized architecture provides censorship resistance but limits institutional adoption in compliance-heavy jurisdictions.

Both are betting that the long-term opportunity extends far beyond their current focus. The real prize isn't sports betting or election markets—it's becoming the Bloomberg terminal of collective beliefs.

Hedging the Unhedgeable: How Wall Street Uses Prediction Markets

The most revolutionary development isn't volume growth—it's the emergence of entirely new hedging strategies that traditional derivatives couldn't support.

Fed Rate Hedging: Current Kalshi odds place a 98% probability on the Fed holding rates steady at the January 28 meeting. But the real action is in March 2026 contracts, where a 74% chance of a 25-basis-point cut has created high-stakes hedging ground for those fearing a growth slowdown. Large funds use these binary contracts—either the Fed cuts or it doesn't—to "de-risk" portfolios with more precision than Treasury futures offer.

Inflation Insurance: Following the December 2025 CPI print of 2.7%, Polymarket users are actively trading 2026 inflation caps. Currently, there's a 30% probability priced in for inflation to rebound and stay above 3% for the year. Unlike traditional inflation swaps that require institutional minimums, these contracts are accessible with as little as $1—allowing individual investors to buy "inflation insurance" for their cost-of-living expenses.

Government Shutdown Protection: Retailers offset government shutdown risks through prediction contracts. Mortgage lenders hedge regulatory decisions. Tech investors use CPI contracts to protect equity portfolios.

Speed Advantage: Throughout 2025, prediction markets successfully anticipated three out of three Fed pivots several weeks before mainstream financial press caught up. This "speed gap" is why firms like Saba Capital Management now use Kalshi's CPI contracts to hedge inflation directly, bypassing bond-market proxy complexities.

The AI-Powered Information Oracle

Perhaps nothing distinguishes 2026 prediction markets more than AI integration. Autonomous systems aren't just participating—they're fundamentally changing how these markets function.

AI agents contribute over 30% of trading volume, scanning news feeds, social media, and economic data to execute trades faster than human traders can process information. This creates a self-reinforcing loop: AI-driven liquidity attracts more institutional flow, which improves price discovery, which makes AI strategies more profitable.

The implications extend beyond trading:

  • Real-time Sentiment Analysis: Corporations integrate AI-powered prediction feeds into dashboards for internal risk and sales forecasting
  • Institutional Data Licensing: Platforms license enriched market data as alpha to hedge funds and trading firms
  • Automated News Response: Within seconds of a major announcement, prediction prices adjust—often before traditional markets react

This AI layer is why Bernstein's analysts argue that "blockchain rails, AI analysis and news feeds" aren't adjacent trends—they're merging inside prediction platforms to create a new category of financial infrastructure.

Beyond Betting: Information as an Asset Class

The transformation from "speculative casino" to "information infrastructure" reflects a deeper insight: prediction markets price what other instruments can't.

Traditional derivatives let you hedge interest rate moves, currency fluctuations, and commodity prices. But they're terrible at hedging:

  • Regulatory decisions (new tariffs, policy changes)
  • Political outcomes (elections, government formation)
  • Economic surprises (CPI prints, employment data)
  • Geopolitical events (conflicts, trade deals)

Prediction markets fill this gap. A retail investor concerned about inflationary impacts can buy "CPI exceeds 3.1%" for cents, effectively purchasing inflation insurance. A multinational worried about trade policy can hedge tariff risk directly.

This is why ICE integrated Polymarket's data into institutional feeds—it's not about the betting platform, it's about the information layer. Prediction markets aggregate beliefs more efficiently than polls, surveys, or analyst estimates. They're becoming the real-time truth layer for economic forecasting.

The Risks and Regulatory Tightrope

Despite explosive growth, significant risks remain:

Regulatory Arbitrage: Kalshi's federal precedent doesn't protect it from state-level gaming regulators. The Nevada and Connecticut cease-and-desist orders signal potential jurisdictional conflicts. If prediction markets are classified as gambling in key states, the domestic retail market could fragment.

Concentration Risk: With Kalshi and Polymarket commanding combined $20 billion valuations, the industry is highly concentrated. A regulatory action against either platform could crash sector-wide confidence.

AI Manipulation: As AI contributes 30% of volume, questions emerge about market integrity. Can AI agents collude? How do platforms detect coordinated manipulation by autonomous systems? These governance questions remain unresolved.

Crypto Dependency: Polymarket's reliance on crypto rails (Polygon, USDC) ties its fate to crypto market conditions and stablecoin regulatory outcomes. If USDC faces restrictions, Polymarket's settlement infrastructure becomes uncertain.

What Comes Next: The $222 Billion Opportunity

The trajectory is clear. Piper Sandler's projection of $222.5 billion in 2026 notional volume would make prediction markets larger than many traditional derivatives categories. Several developments to watch:

New Market Categories: Beyond politics and Fed decisions, expect prediction markets for climate events, AI development milestones, corporate earnings surprises, and technological breakthroughs.

Bank Integration: Major banks have largely stayed on the sidelines due to compliance concerns. If regulatory clarity continues, expect custody and prime brokerage services to emerge for institutional prediction trading.

Insurance Products: The line between prediction contracts and insurance is thin. Parametric insurance products built on prediction market infrastructure could emerge—earthquake insurance that pays based on magnitude readings, crop insurance tied to weather outcomes.

Global Expansion: Both Kalshi and Polymarket are primarily U.S.-focused. International expansion—particularly in Asia and LATAM—represents significant growth potential.

The prediction market wars of 2026 aren't about who processes more sports bets. They're about who builds the infrastructure for Information Finance—the asset class where beliefs become tradeable, hedgeable, and ultimately, monetizable.

For the first time, information has a market price. And that changes everything.


For developers building on the blockchain infrastructure that powers prediction markets and DeFi applications, BlockEden.xyz provides enterprise-grade API services across Ethereum, Polygon, and other chains—the same foundational layers that platforms like Polymarket rely upon.

User Feedback on Alchemy: Insights and Opportunities

· 6 min read
Dora Noda
Software Engineer

Alchemy is a dominant force in the Web3 infrastructure space, serving as the entry point for thousands of developers and major projects like OpenSea. By analyzing public user feedback from platforms like G2, Reddit, and GitHub, we can gain a clear picture of what developers value, where they struggle, and what the future of Web3 development experience could look like. This isn't just about one provider; it's a reflection of the entire ecosystem's maturing needs.

What Users Consistently Like

Across review sites and forums, users consistently praise Alchemy for several key strengths that have cemented its market position.

  • Effortless "On-ramp" & Ease of Use: Beginners and small teams celebrate how quickly they can get started. G2 reviews frequently highlight it as a "great platform to build Web3," praising its easy configuration and comprehensive documentation. It successfully abstracts away the complexity of running a node.
  • Centralized Dashboard & Tooling: Developers value having a single "command center" for observability. The ability to monitor request logs, view analytics, set up alerts, and rotate API keys in one dashboard is a significant user experience win.
  • Intelligent SDK Defaults: The Alchemy SDK handles request retries and exponential backoff by default. This small but crucial feature saves developers from writing boilerplate logic and lowers the friction of building resilient applications.
  • Reputation for Strong Support: In the often-complex world of blockchain development, responsive support is a major differentiator. Aggregate review sites like TrustRadius frequently cite Alchemy's helpful support team as a key benefit.
  • Social Proof and Trust: By showcasing case studies with giants like OpenSea and securing strong partner endorsements, Alchemy provides reassurance to teams who are choosing a managed RPC provider.

The Main Pain Points

Despite the positives, developers run into recurring challenges, especially as their applications begin to scale. These pain points reveal critical opportunities for improvement.

  • The "Invisible Wall" of Throughput Limits: The most common frustration is hitting 429 Too Many Requests errors. Developers encounter these when forking mainnet for testing, deploying in bursts, or serving a handful of simultaneous users. This creates confusion, especially on paid tiers, as users feel throttled during critical spikes. The impact is broken CI/CD pipelines and flaky tests, forcing developers to manually implement sleep commands or backoff logic.
  • Perception of Low Concurrency: On forums like Reddit, a common anecdote is that lower-tier plans can only handle a few concurrent users before rate limiting kicks in. Whether this is strictly accurate or workload-dependent, the perception drives teams to consider more complex multi-provider setups or upgrade sooner than expected.
  • Timeouts on Heavy Queries: Intensive JSON-RPC calls, particularly eth_getLogs, can lead to timeouts or 500 errors. This not only disrupts the client-side experience but can crash local development tools like Foundry and Anvil, leading to lost productivity.
  • SDK and Provider Confusion: Newcomers often face a learning curve regarding the scope of a node provider. For instance, questions on Stack Overflow show confusion when eth_sendTransaction fails, not realizing that providers like Alchemy don't hold private keys. Opaque errors from misconfigured API keys or URLs also present a hurdle for those new to the ecosystem.
  • Data Privacy and Centralization Concerns: A vocal subset of developers expresses a preference for self-hosted or privacy-focused RPCs. They cite concerns about large, centralized providers logging IP addresses and potentially censoring transactions, highlighting that trust and transparency are paramount.
  • Product Breadth and Roadmap: Comparative reviews on G2 sometimes suggest that competitors are expanding faster into new ecosystems or that Alchemy is "busy focused on a couple chains." This can create an expectation mismatch for teams building on non-EVM chains.

Where Developer Expectations Break

These pain points often surface at predictable moments in the development lifecycle:

  1. Prototype to Testnet: A project that works perfectly on a developer's machine suddenly fails in a CI/CD environment when tests run in parallel, hitting throughput limits.
  2. Local Forking: Developers using Hardhat or Foundry to fork mainnet for realistic testing are often the first to report 429 errors and timeouts from mass data queries.
  3. NFT/Data APIs at Scale: Minting events or loading data for large NFT collections can easily overwhelm default rate limits, forcing developers to search for best practices on caching and batching.

Uncovering the Core "Jobs-to-be-Done"

Distilling this feedback reveals three fundamental needs of Web3 developers:

  • "Give me a single pane of glass to observe and debug." This job is well-served by Alchemy's dashboard.
  • "Make my bursty workloads predictable and manageable." Developers accept limits but need smoother handling of spikes, better defaults, and code-level scaffolds that work out-of-the-box.
  • "Help me stay unblocked during incidents." When things go wrong, developers need clear status updates, actionable post-mortems, and easy-to-implement failover patterns.

Actionable Opportunities for a Better DX

Based on this analysis, any infrastructure provider could enhance its offering by tackling these opportunities:

  • Proactive "Throughput Coach": An in-dashboard or CLI tool that simulates a planned workload, predicts when CU/s (Compute Units per second) limits might be hit, and auto-generates correctly configured retry/backoff snippets for popular libraries like ethers.js, viem, Hardhat, and Foundry.
  • Golden-Path Templates: Provide ready-made, production-grade templates for common pain points, such as a Hardhat network config for forking mainnet with conservative concurrency, or sample code for efficiently batching eth_getLogs calls with pagination.
  • Adaptive Burst Capacity: Offer "burst credits" or an elastic capacity model on paid tiers to better handle short-term spikes in traffic. This would directly address the feeling of being unnecessarily constrained.
  • Official Multi-Provider Failover Guides: Acknowledge that resilient dApps use multiple RPCs. Providing opinionated recipes and sample code for failing over to a backup provider would build trust and align with real-world best practices.
  • Radical Transparency: Directly address privacy and censorship concerns with clear, accessible documentation on data retention policies, what is logged, and any filtering that occurs.
  • Actionable Incident Reports: Go beyond a simple status page. When an incident occurs (like the EU region latency on Aug 5-6, 2025), pair it with a short Root Cause Analysis (RCA) and concrete advice, such as "what you can do now to mitigate."

Conclusion: A Roadmap for Web3 Infrastructure

The user feedback on Alchemy provides a valuable roadmap for the entire Web3 infrastructure space. While the platform excels at simplifying the onboarding experience, the challenges users face with scaling, predictability, and transparency point to the next frontier of developer experience.

As the industry matures, the winning platforms will be those that not only provide reliable access but also empower developers with the tools and guidance to build resilient, scalable, and trustworthy applications from day one.

A Deep Dive into QuickNode User Feedback: Performance, Pricing, and a Developer's Perspective

· 5 min read
Dora Noda
Software Engineer

QuickNode stands as a pillar in the Web3 infrastructure landscape, praised for its speed and extensive multi-chain support. To understand what makes it a go-to choice for so many developers—and where the experience can be improved—we synthesized a wide range of public user feedback from platforms like G2, Reddit, Product Hunt, and Trustpilot.

This analysis reveals a clear story: while developers love the core product, the user journey is not without its hurdles, particularly when it comes to cost.


The Highs: What Users Love About QuickNode

Across the board, users celebrate QuickNode for delivering a premium, frictionless developer experience built on three core strengths.

🚀 Blazing-Fast Performance & Rock-Solid Reliability

This is QuickNode's most lauded feature. Users consistently describe the service as "blazing fast" and "the most performant and reliable RPC provider out there." Low-latency responses, often under 100ms, and a claimed 99.99% uptime give developers the confidence to build and scale responsive dApps.

As one enterprise client from Nansen noted, QuickNode provides “robust, low-latency, high-performance nodes” capable of handling billions of requests. This performance isn't just a number; it's a critical feature that ensures a smooth end-user experience.

✅ Effortless Onboarding & Intuitive UI

Developers are often "up and running within minutes." The platform is frequently praised for its clean dashboard and intuitive workflows that abstract away the complexities of running a node.

One developer on Reddit called the interface a "no-brainer," while a full-stack dev highlighted that “signing up and provisioning a node takes minutes without any complex DevOps work.” This ease of use makes QuickNode an invaluable tool for rapid prototyping and testing.

🤝 Top-Tier Customer Support & Documentation

Exceptional support and documentation are consistent themes. The support team is described as “quick to respond and genuinely helpful,” a crucial asset when troubleshooting time-sensitive issues.

The API documentation receives universal praise for being clear, thorough, and beginner-friendly, with one user calling the tutorials "well-crafted." This investment in developer resources significantly lowers the barrier to entry and reduces integration friction.


The Hurdles: Where Users Face Challenges

Despite the stellar performance and user experience, two key areas of friction emerge from user feedback, primarily centered around cost and feature limitations.

💸 The Pricing Predicament

Pricing is, by far, the most common and emotionally charged point of criticism. The feedback reveals a tale of two user bases:

  • For Enterprises, the cost is often seen as a fair trade for premium performance and reliability.
  • For Startups and Indie Developers, the model can be prohibitive.

The core issues are:

  1. Steep Jumps Between Tiers: Users note a “significant jump from the $49 ‘Build’ plan to the $249 ‘Accelerate’ plan,” wishing for an intermediate tier that better supports growing projects.
  2. Punitive Overage Fees: This is the most significant pain point. QuickNode’s policy of automatically charging for another full block of requests after exceeding a quota—with no option to cap usage—is a source of major frustration. One user described how an "inadvertent excess of just 1 million requests can incur an additional $50." This unpredictability led a long-time customer on Trustpilot to call the service “the biggest scam…stay away” after accumulating high fees.

As one G2 reviewer summarized perfectly, “the pricing structure could be more startup-friendly.”

🧩 Niche Feature Gaps

While QuickNode's feature set is robust, advanced users have pointed out a few gaps. Common requests include:

  • Broader Protocol Support: Users have expressed a desire for chains like Bitcoin and newer L2s like Starknet.
  • More Powerful Tooling: Some developers contrasted QuickNode with competitors, noting it had "missing features like more powerful webhook support."
  • Modern Authentication: A long-term user wished for OAuth support for better API key management in enterprise environments.

These gaps don't detract from the core offering for most users, but they highlight areas where competitors may have an edge for specific use cases.


Key Takeaways for the Web3 Infra Space

The feedback on QuickNode offers valuable lessons for any company building tools for developers.

  • Performance is Table Stakes: Speed and reliability are the foundation. Without them, nothing else matters. QuickNode sets a high bar here.
  • Developer Experience is the Differentiator: A clean UI, fast onboarding, excellent docs, and responsive support build a loyal following and create a product that developers genuinely enjoy using.
  • Pricing Predictability Builds Trust: This is the most critical lesson. Ambiguous or punitive pricing models, especially those with uncapped overages, create anxiety and destroy trust. A developer who gets a surprise bill is unlikely to remain a long-term, happy customer. Predictable, transparent, and startup-friendly pricing is a massive competitive advantage.

Conclusion

QuickNode has rightfully earned its reputation as a top-tier infrastructure provider. It delivers on its promise of high performance, exceptional reliability, and a stellar developer experience. However, its pricing model creates significant friction, particularly for the startups and independent developers who are the lifeblood of Web3 innovation.

This user feedback serves as a powerful reminder that building a successful platform isn't just about technical excellence; it's about aligning your business model with the needs and trust of your users. The infrastructure provider that can match QuickNode's performance while offering a more transparent and predictable pricing structure will be incredibly well-positioned for the future.

Web3 DevEx Toolchain Innovation

· 4 min read
Dora Noda
Software Engineer

Here's a consolidated summary of the report on Web3 Developer Experience (DevEx) innovations.

Executive Summary

The Web3 developer experience has significantly advanced in 2024-2025, driven by innovations in programming languages, toolchains, and deployment infrastructure. Developers are reporting higher productivity and satisfaction due to faster tools, safer languages, and streamlined workflows. This summary consolidates findings on five key toolchains (Solidity, Move, Sway, Foundry, and Cairo 1.0) and two major trends: “one-click” rollup deployment and smart contract hot-reloading.


Comparison of Web3 Developer Toolchains

Each toolchain offers distinct advantages, catering to different ecosystems and development philosophies.

  • Solidity (EVM): Remains the most dominant language due to its massive ecosystem, extensive libraries (e.g., OpenZeppelin), and mature frameworks like Hardhat and Foundry. While it lacks native features like macros, its widespread adoption and strong community support make it the default choice for Ethereum and most EVM-compatible L2s.
  • Move (Aptos/Sui): Prioritizes safety and formal verification. Its resource-based model and the Move Prover tool help prevent common bugs like reentrancy by design. This makes it ideal for high-security financial applications, though its ecosystem is smaller and centered on the Aptos and Sui blockchains.
  • Sway (FuelVM): Designed for maximum developer productivity by allowing developers to write contracts, scripts, and tests in a single Rust-like language. It leverages the high-throughput, UTXO-based architecture of the Fuel Virtual Machine, making it a powerful choice for performance-intensive applications on the Fuel network.
  • Foundry (EVM Toolkit): A transformative toolkit for Solidity that has revolutionized EVM development. It offers extremely fast compilation and testing, allowing developers to write tests directly in Solidity. Features like fuzz testing, mainnet forking, and "cheatcodes" have made it the primary choice for over half of Ethereum developers.
  • Cairo 1.0 (Starknet): Represents a major DevEx improvement for the Starknet ecosystem. The transition to a high-level, Rust-inspired syntax and modern tooling (like the Scarb package manager and Starknet Foundry) has made developing for ZK-rollups significantly faster and more intuitive. While some tools like debuggers are still maturing, developer satisfaction has soared.

Key DevEx Innovations

Two major trends are changing how developers build and deploy decentralized applications.

"One-Click" Rollup Deployment

Launching a custom blockchain (L2/appchain) has become radically simpler.

  • Foundation: Frameworks like Optimism’s OP Stack provide a modular, open-source blueprint for building rollups.
  • Platforms: Services like Caldera and Conduit have created Rollup-as-a-Service (RaaS) platforms. They offer web dashboards that allow developers to deploy a customized mainnet or testnet rollup in minutes, with minimal blockchain engineering expertise.
  • Impact: This enables rapid experimentation, lowers the barrier to creating app-specific chains, and simplifies DevOps, allowing teams to focus on their application instead of infrastructure.

Hot-Reloading for Smart Contracts

This innovation brings the instant feedback loop of modern web development to the blockchain space.

  • Concept: Tools like Scaffold-ETH 2 automate the development cycle. When a developer saves a change to a smart contract, the tool automatically recompiles, redeploys to a local network, and updates the front-end to reflect the new logic.
  • Impact: Hot-reloading eliminates repetitive manual steps and dramatically shortens the iteration loop. This makes the development process more engaging, lowers the learning curve for new developers, and encourages frequent testing, leading to higher-quality code.

Conclusion

The Web3 development landscape is maturing at a rapid pace. The convergence of safer languages, faster tooling like Foundry, and simplified infrastructure deployment via RaaS platforms is closing the gap between blockchain and traditional software development. These DevEx improvements are as critical as protocol-level innovations, as they empower developers to build more complex and secure applications faster. This, in turn, fuels the growth and adoption of the entire blockchain ecosystem.

Sources:

  • Solidity Developer Survey 2024 – Soliditylang (2025)
  • Moncayo Labs on Aptos Move vs Solidity (2024)
  • Aptos Move Prover intro – Monethic (2025)
  • Fuel Labs – Fuel & Sway Documentation (2024); Fuel Book (2024)
  • Spearmanrigoberto – Foundry vs Hardhat (2023)
  • Medium (Rosario Borgesi) – Building Dapps with Scaffold-ETH 2 (2024)
  • Starknet/Cairo developer survey – Cairo-lang.org (2024)
  • Starknet Dev Updates – Starknet.io (2024–2025)
  • Solidity forum – Macro preprocessor discussion (2023)
  • Optimism OP Stack overview – CoinDesk (2025)
  • Caldera rollup platform overview – Medium (2024)
  • Conduit platform recap – Conduit Blog (2025)
  • Blockchain DevEx literature review – arXiv (2025)