Skip to main content

19 posts tagged with "crypto"

View all tags

The Crypto Super App Revolution: Exchanges Become Financial Ecosystems

· 34 min read
Dora Noda
Software Engineer

The transformation of crypto exchanges into comprehensive super apps represents the industry's most significant business model evolution since Bitcoin's inception. This shift is driven by revenue diversification imperatives, regulatory maturation, and lessons from Asian super apps like WeChat and Grab. Major platforms are racing to bundle trading, payments, DeFi, social features, and traditional finance into unified ecosystems, with the market expected to reach 1 billion users by 2027 and 4 billion by 2030. The panel featuring Cecilia Hsueh (MEXC CSO), Ciara Sun (C² Ventures), Vivien Lin (BingX CPO), and Henri Arslanian (Nine Blocks Capital) represents thought leaders navigating this transformation firsthand—though the specific panel discussion could not be verified, each brings distinct expertise in exchange evolution, investment strategy, product development, and regulatory navigation.

This convergence of centralized efficiency and decentralized innovation is creating platforms that replace traditional banks while maintaining regulatory compliance. The winners will be those who make crypto as indispensable as WeChat for messaging or Grab for transportation—invisible blockchain infrastructure serving everyday financial needs. Trading revenue now represents less than 60% of leading platforms' income, down from 95% just three years ago, signaling a fundamental restructuring of crypto business models.

Panel participants driving the super app conversation

While the exact panel "From Exchanges to Ecosystems: Building the Next Crypto Super Apps" could not be located in Token 2049 or other major 2024-2025 conferences, the four panelists have each made substantial contributions to this conversation through their respective roles and public statements.

Cecilia Hsueh joined MEXC as Chief Strategy Officer in September 2025 after co-founding Phemex (scaled to $200M profit by year two) and Morph, a consumer-focused Layer 2 blockchain. Her philosophy centers on ecosystem-first approaches: "We should first establish the ecosystem and then continuously upgrade the technology based on the needs of developers and users." At MEXC, she's driving the evolution "from an exchange into a comprehensive platform... into a Web3 ecosystem that empowers users, partners, and institutions worldwide." Her experience building both exchanges and blockchain infrastructure provides unique insight into bridging retail users with developers.

Ciara Sun founded C² Ventures, a $150M chain-agnostic blockchain investment fund, after serving as VP at Huobi Global where she led listings and institutional business. Her firm takes an "active role in investments to ensure long-term success, from token design and community building to marketing and business development." With intimate understanding of exchange listings and collaboration with "the world's top centralized and decentralized exchanges," she brings critical perspective on how exchanges scale into multi-service platforms through strategic liquidity partnerships and operational expertise.

Vivien Lin celebrated her one-year anniversary as BingX's Chief Product Officer in December 2024, bringing nearly a decade of experience from Morgan Stanley, BNP Paribas, and Deutsche Bank. She emphasizes blockchain's potential "far beyond what we've seen so far" and leads BingX's transformation through copy trading innovation (8,000+ elite traders, 4 million copy relationships), AI integration ($300M investment), and the Chelsea FC partnership bringing crypto to mainstream audiences. Her focus remains unwaveringly user-centric: "ensuring that every development is user-centric and driven by the needs of our global community."

Henri Arslanian co-founded Nine Blocks Capital Management, the first crypto hedge fund licensed by Dubai's VARA (Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority). As former Global Crypto Leader at PwC, he advised "the world's leading crypto exchanges, investors, financial institutions" and numerous governments and regulators. He describes VARA licensing as "by far the most difficult" of 60-70 applications he's completed, with "the most stringent" ongoing supervision—insight that illuminates the operational complexity of building compliant super apps. His emphasis on institutional-grade standards and regulatory clarity positions him as a bridge between traditional finance discipline and crypto innovation.

From trading platforms to financial operating systems

Crypto exchanges are executing strategic pivots that mirror the evolution of Asian super apps, though with distinct approaches shaped by regulatory environments and market maturity. Mercado Bitcoin in Brazil exemplifies the "invisible blockchain" philosophy, deliberately avoiding crypto-native terminology while positioning as a financial hub. Trading revenue peaked at 95% but now represents approximately 60%, with aggressive targets to reduce it below 30% by end of 2025. The platform integrates PIX payments, digital fixed income products, stablecoin remittances, and tokenized private credit, targeting over $560 million in tokenized credit issuance. CEO Daniel Cunha articulates the strategy: "The revolution happens when the protocol disappears. The customer doesn't want to hear about blockchains and tokens."

Coinbase pursues a parallel bank replacement strategy in the US, leveraging regulatory advantages from the recently signed GENIUS Act and the "Project Crypto" initiative under new SEC leadership. CEO Brian Armstrong states plainly: "We want to be a bank replacement for people, their primary financial account." The platform has rebranded Coinbase Wallet to "Base app," integrating social networking features comparable to X (formerly Twitter), Apple Pay funding for USDC stablecoin purchases, and upcoming tokenized real-world assets, stocks, and derivatives. The strategic rebranding resolves previous confusion while positioning Base as an all-in-one financial services platform. Notably, Coinbase provides custody for 80% of newly launched Bitcoin ETFs, cementing its institutional positioning.

Binance maintains dominance through ecosystem lock-in via the BNB token and BNB Chain, which supports over 17,000 dApps. The 2022 partnership with Splyt transformed Binance into a "super app enabler," integrating ride-hailing, food delivery, bikesharing, scooters, and public transport through crypto payments across 150+ countries serving 90+ million users. The Most Valuable Builder (MVB) program provides a 4-week accelerator for ecosystem development, while Binance Labs has made 200+ investments across 25 countries. Despite regulatory challenges in multiple jurisdictions, Binance maintains 49.7% global market share with $93 billion in daily trading volume.

The transformation follows a four-stage maturity model. Stage one represents pure trading exchanges vulnerable to market volatility with single revenue streams. Stage two introduces multi-product platforms adding staking, lending, and margin trading while revenue diversification begins (70-80% still from trading). Stage three evolves into financial services hubs where trading represents less than 60% of revenue as payments, cards, custody, and asset management expand—the current position of Mercado Bitcoin and Coinbase's trajectory. Stage four achieves true super app status with trading revenue below 30%, integration of social features, commerce, third-party services, and mini-programs transforming the platform into a daily-use application. This final stage reflects the TON/Telegram vision and the WeChat Pay model.

Revenue streams beyond trading fees create sustainable models

The imperative for revenue diversification stems from trading fee compression and market volatility. Top 10 centralized exchanges processed $6.5 trillion in quarterly spot volume in Q4 2024 (highest ever recorded), yet volumes declined 16.3% in Q1 2025 and another 27.7% in Q2 2025 despite price increases—signaling structural shifts toward decentralized exchanges and demonstrating the unsustainability of trading-dependent business models.

Staking services have emerged as cornerstone revenue generators, with platforms taking 10-20% of rewards earned by users. Binance Earn alone holds $38 billion locked across 137 staking assets. The evolution includes liquid staking tokens (LSTs) enabling users to maintain liquidity while earning rewards, and "invisible" staking through tokenized products that hide technical complexity from mainstream users. Lending and interest revenue provides recession-resistant income through margin trading loans, DeFi protocol integration, custodial interest-bearing accounts, and stablecoin yield products that survive bear markets when trading volumes collapse.

Token listing fees range from $50,000 to several million dollars based on exchange reputation. Binance maintained a selective 2024 strategy of just 1-10 new token listings monthly, including spot listings, Launchpad, and Launchpool programs. These curated launches provide both direct fee revenue and ecosystem development value. Premium subscription models offer advanced analytics, exclusive trading pairs, reduced fees, priority support, and AI-powered trading bots, with consumer tiers starting at $8.99 monthly and enterprise tiers commanding custom institutional pricing.

API access monetization has become substantial for data-dependent businesses. CoinGecko's model illustrates the opportunity: free tier provides 30 calls per minute, paid tiers deliver 500-1,000 calls per minute at $250 per 500,000 calls, and enterprise plans offer custom pricing with USD bank transfer or crypto payment options. Target markets include traders, developers building wallets and portfolio trackers, financial firms requiring institutional analysis, and researchers needing historical data. The Coinbase Exchange API provides direct access to deep liquidity pools with dynamic fee structures for institutional clients, while Crypto.com's unified REST and WebSocket APIs serve both retail and professional segments.

NFT marketplace integration adds trading fee revenue from platforms like Binance NFT (1% trading fee), with multi-chain support across Ethereum, Solana, Polygon, and BNB Chain. OKX and Crypto.com operate similar marketplaces featuring PFP collections, gamified drops, and exclusive artist collaborations. Educational services generate revenue through certification programs on crypto trading, ranging from basic to advanced strategies, with professional certificates for platform use commanding course fees and enterprise training packages. The 2,293 airdrop events distributing over $136 million in rewards (MEXC example) drive user engagement while creating ecosystem loyalty.

Developer ecosystems and technical infrastructure enable third-party innovation

The mini-app and plugin architecture represents the most direct application of Web2 super app lessons to crypto. WeChat's model of 1 million+ mini programs serving 1 billion monthly users provides the blueprint, with host apps in native technologies controlling mini-apps built with web technologies enabling over-the-air updates without app store approval. Telegram Mini Apps have achieved extraordinary traction with 500+ million users across 75,000+ live apps, demonstrating 5x higher retention than traditional mobile apps. Notable implementations include Notcoin's viral tap-to-earn with $NOT token launch on TON, and Catizen's GameFi mechanics with $CATI token integration.

Coinbase's MiniKit SDK for Base represents the Western approach, providing seamless OnchainKit component integration, Coinbase Wallet-specific hooks, built-in authentication and error handling, and metadata fields for discoverability. The architecture enables developers to build lightweight applications running within the super app interface while inheriting the platform's security framework. X (Twitter) Mini Apps through AGNT Hub platform target 361 million crypto users with native Web3 execution, low-code deployment tools, and in-feed applications. Components include AGNT Connect for analytics and wallet integration, AGNT Mobile, and X App Studio for rapid development.

Technical architecture choices fundamentally shape super app capabilities. Revolut's frameworks-based approach employs approximately 60 developers per platform team (iOS and Android), with each feature as a separate framework following clean architecture and MVVM patterns. This enables independent development and testing within a mono-repo structure. The alternative Android dynamic features approach allows on-demand module delivery via Google Play, with users able to download or uninstall specific features—though Google recommends a maximum of 10 dynamic features due to coupling with the core app.

Cross-chain and multi-chain capabilities require sophisticated infrastructure. The cross-chain approach deploys a single unified application with smart contracts across multiple blockchains using bridges and protocols like Chainlink CCIP (Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol) connecting 60+ blockchains. This enables single-signature, protocol-agnostic transactions with faster execution, unified liquidity, and lower fees. The multi-chain alternative deploys separate instances on different blockchains with independent smart contracts per chain, providing enhanced security through isolation and chain-specific optimizations at the cost of higher infrastructure requirements.

DEX aggregation has become essential for optimal liquidity. Leading super apps integrate 1inch's PathFinder algorithm optimizing swap routes across numerous DEXs, ParaSwap's MultiPath routing with proprietary ParaSwapPool liquidity, LI.FI connecting all major DEX aggregators and bridges, Symbiosis cross-chain AMM pooling liquidity from Layer 1s and Layer 2s across EVM and non-EVM networks, and OpenOcean aggregating liquidity across 30+ chains from 1,000+ providers. These integrations reduce slippage through liquidity aggregation, achieve best execution prices via smart routing algorithms, provide MEV protection, optimize gas through transaction bundling, and enable real-time price comparison.

User experience evolution makes crypto accessible to mainstream audiences

The principles of intuitive onboarding with progressive education have become industry standard, featuring "learn-as-you-go" approaches with step-by-step tutorials, visual aids enhancing retention, and gradual introduction of complex concepts—exemplified by MetaMask's guided setup process. Visual security cues provide transparent risk communication through clear security status indicators, real-time feedback on transaction safety, visual warnings for suspicious addresses, transaction simulation showing balance changes before commitment, and contract ABI decoding revealing exactly what users are signing.

Apple Pay integration in the Base app represents a watershed moment for reducing onboarding friction, enabling users to add funds using Apple Pay without traditional crypto wallet setup. Single-tap access to USDC stablecoin purchases, trading, and payments dramatically lowers barriers to entry. The portable blockchain-based identity approach creates a single ID usable across services—similar to Facebook or Google sign-in but decentralized—carrying credentials, contacts, and data without requiring multiple logins across platforms. This has potential for government-issued credential integration as digital identity infrastructure matures.

Gamification and engagement mechanisms drive the 5x retention advantage super apps demonstrate over traditional crypto platforms. Coinbase Earn pioneered the learn-to-earn model with interactive lessons rewarding actual cryptocurrency for completion, covering diverse cryptocurrencies beyond Bitcoin with a mobile-friendly interface. Binance Academy evolved the concept with engaging quizzes after each module, interactive learning requiring clicking, dragging, and answering, reward systems for completion, and community-driven content. The tokenized rewards approach now features tiered systems (Bronze, Silver, Gold, Platinum), native platform tokens for activities, cashback programs like Base Pay's 1% USDC cashback, staking rewards with APY tracking, and referral bonuses.

Achievement systems with badges, levels for milestones, experience points for engagement, progression unlocking features, NFT-based achievements (unique and tradable), and leaderboards create powerful psychological hooks. Crypto.com's implementation of personalized challenges based on user interests, tiered rewards from digital assets to exclusive perks, community competitions, and points and badges systems has increased transaction volumes through emotional investment and higher retention through sense of achievement. Axie Infinity demonstrated the potential with the largest play-to-earn platform reaching a $3 billion+ market cap, daily trade volumes exceeding $150 million, and players earning $100-$4,000 monthly through NFT creature breeding, battling, land ownership, and development.

MEXC and BingX exemplify divergent super app strategies

MEXC has experienced explosive growth from 2.4% market share in 2023 to 11.6% in 2024 to 13.06% in Q1 2025, ranking third in futures trading volume with 36-40 million users across 170+ countries. The platform's 2,000 employees (nearly doubled in 2024) support the "Your Easiest Way to Crypto" positioning. The revolutionary DEX+ platform launched March 2025 represents the industry's first innovative CEX-DEX hybrid product, providing seamless one-stop experience for on-chain and off-chain trading with access to 10,000+ on-chain assets initially on Solana, expanded to BSC chain covering 5,000+ tokens by March 26, with future expansion to Ethereum, Arbitrum, Polygon, Avalanche, and zkSync.

The platform integrates Raydium, pump.fun, PancakeSwap, and PumpSwap with one-click wallet connection for MetaMask, Phantom, Trust Wallet, and TronLink—eliminating the need to manage private keys or install browser extensions. The Automatic Slippage Algorithm employs AI-driven optimization, while GoPlus security partnership provides third-party safety inspection. Combined with 3,000+ listed assets offering zero maker fees and 0.05% taker fees on spot trading, and up to 500x leverage on futures with 0.00% maker and 0.01% taker fees, MEXC positions itself as the most comprehensive asset access platform.

The $300 million Ecosystem Development Fund announced at Token 2049 Dubai in May 2025 represents a five-year commitment to blockchain innovation focused on public chains, stablecoins, wallets, and media platforms. This complements MEXC Ventures' over $100 million invested across 40+ projects since 2023, including $66 million total in the Ethena ecosystem. The $30 million IgniteX CSR Initiative runs concurrently over five years to foster Web3 talent through support for early-stage startups, research, developer communities, and academic institutions. Focus areas include decentralized infrastructure, AI-blockchain integration, stablecoins, and fintech, combining mentorship, education, and funding.

Security infrastructure includes the $100 million Guardian Fund for instant compensation, Proof of Reserves backed 1:1 and beyond with real-time verification, Futures Insurance Fund covering $526+ million for market extremes, multi-signature cold storage, and proactive customer service that has recovered $1.8+ million in user assets. The fastest listing strategy gives users competitive early access to emerging tokens, particularly memecoins, positioning MEXC as the discovery platform for new projects.

BingX has built its super app around social trading and AI integration, serving 20 million users globally with positioning as a "leading crypto exchange and Web3 AI company." The platform earned recognition as TradingView's Best Crypto Exchange and Centralized Crypto Exchange of the Year at Blockchain Life 2024, processing over $12.1 billion in 24-hour trading volume across 350+ listed cryptocurrencies and 130+ million orders. Copy Trading 2.0 launched June 2025 represents a major upgrade with 8,000+ elite traders, 4 million copy relationships, dedicated sub-accounts for each follower, automatic mirroring of trader's leverage and margin mode, industry-leading 0-slippage execution, and 8-20% profit share for traders from copiers' profits.

The Chelsea FC partnership launched January 2024 establishes BingX as Men's Official Training Kit Partner for the 2024/25 season onwards, with logo placement on training wear, the "Trained on Greatness" campaign for 2025/26, and access to hundreds of millions of Chelsea fans worldwide through matchday tickets, VIP experiences, co-branded merchandise, and trading competitions. This mainstream sports positioning differentiates BingX from crypto-native competitors.

BingX's $300 million AI Initiative announced in 2025 deploys Bing AI Chat as a virtual assistant offering real-time answers, AI News Briefing gathering and summarizing market sentiment data, Trend Forecasting merging technical charts with news trends, Smart Positioning Analysis providing real-time portfolio health checks and advice, Pro Trader Recommender analyzing trading records to suggest copy trading opportunities, and AI Trade Review helping users analyze past trades and refine strategies. The three-phase development plan encompasses short-term onboarding, analysis, and automation; medium-term dedicated AI research institute; and long-term full platform AI integration.

BingX Labs launched in 2024 as an innovation hub investing over $15 million to support early-stage decentralized projects, focusing on AI-powered trading insights, predictive analytics, DeFi integrations, and strategic partnerships with blockchain developers. The platform's 800+ spot trading pairs added in 2024, 300+ futures pairs with up to 150x customizable leverage, guaranteed price feature eliminating slippage during high volatility, dual price mechanism for enhanced stability, lower funding rates for perpetual futures, and coin-margined plus USDC-margined futures options create comprehensive trading infrastructure. Demo trading with 100,000 virtual USDT enables risk-free practice, while the wealth management product allows assets to earn interest while serving as futures margin.

Competitive landscape reveals consolidation and specialization

Binance maintains overwhelming dominance with 49.7% global market share, 190 million users, and $93 billion in daily volume, though share has declined 6 percentage points as mid-tier exchanges gain ground. The super app components include Binance Pay for payments, NFT Marketplace generating $25 million in the first month, Launchpad delivering 4.8x average ROI (best in class), Binance Earn with $38 billion locked across 137 staking assets, Binance Card offering 8% cashback, BNB Chain supporting 17,000+ dApps, and full fiat banking supporting 50+ currencies. The strategy emphasizes volume dominance, ecosystem lock-in via the BNB token, and zero-fee trading on select pairs to maintain market leadership.

Coinbase holds 6.8% global share but dominates the US market with 65% share among 120 million users. The super app components include Base Chain (Ethereum Layer 2), Coinbase Wallet with 15 million installs, Commerce processing $2.8 billion in H1 2025, Prime institutional services with 17,000 clients and $114 billion custody, and Earn products limited to 12 assets. The strategy prioritizes regulatory compliance first, institutional focus, premium pricing, and conservative approach—positioning as the trusted gateway for traditional finance entering crypto.

OKX captures 7.5% global share across 350+ assets with positioning as the Web3 innovation leader. Super app components feature the OKX Web3 Wallet (considered best-in-class supporting 70+ chains), DeFi Hub simplifying protocol access, trading bots with 940,000 traders, Jumpstart Launchpad, and an NFT marketplace. The strategy emphasizes Web3 gateway positioning, advanced trading tools, bot community development, and beautiful UX—attracting sophisticated traders seeking cutting-edge features.

Market share trends for 2025 show Binance losing ground despite maintaining dominance, mid-tier exchanges gaining with MEXC at 8.6% and Gate.io at 7.8%, regional champions emerging like Upbit with 9.4% in Korea, and derivatives platforms growing faster than spot exchanges. Feature comparison reveals divergent positioning: OKX offers the lowest trading fees at 0.08%, Binance remains competitive at 0.02-0.1% with BNB discounts, Coinbase charges premium fees at 0.60%. Asset selection shows Binance leading with 430+ cryptocurrencies, OKX at 350+, and Coinbase conservative at 270+. Web3 integration favors OKX's leadership, with Coinbase growing rapidly and Binance maintaining basic functionality.

Traditional fintech entering crypto represents high-level threats. PayPal's 400 million users, established brand, PayPal USD stablecoin (PYUSD) launch, first B2B crypto payment to Ernst & Young, and existing merchant relationships could onboard millions overnight. Revolut serves 50+ million customers with UK banking license, crypto revenue increasing 298% to over £500 million in 2024, plans for its own stablecoin, and Ledger Live partnership—already functioning as a super app adding crypto depth. Robinhood acquired Bitstamp for $200 million and expands crypto to Europe, targeting its young retail base with simple UX and positioning as the "on-ramp to crypto."

Decentralized alternatives pose structural challenges to centralized exchanges. MetaMask's 30+ million monthly active users, status as the Web3 standard with every DeFi integration, MetaMask Snaps plugin ecosystem, and upcoming mUSD stablecoin launch in 2025 create disintermediation potential. The self-custody advantage, direct DeFi access without intermediaries, no KYC requirements providing privacy, censorship resistance, and often cheaper fees attract sovereignty-focused users despite complexity barriers.

Web2 super app lessons provide strategic frameworks

WeChat's evolution from messaging to payments to everything serves as the primary blueprint, with 1 billion+ users making it essential infrastructure for daily life in China. WeChat Pay became the payment standard, mini-programs created an open ecosystem, single sign-on provided convenience, and government integration made it essential. The crypto applications include payment integration as foundational (Binance Pay, crypto cards), open ecosystems through Launchpads functioning as mini-programs and dApps, and making apps indispensable through daily use cases—though centralization conflicts with crypto's decentralization ethos.

Grab's evolution from ride-hailing to food to payments to finance demonstrates adjacency expansion, achieving 125 million downloads with 2.6 million drivers and $14 billion valuation. Revenue streams include commissions, GrabPay, subscriptions through GrabUnlimited, and advertising. Success factors encompass local adaptation (motorcycle taxis for Southeast Asian traffic), cross-service subsidies (rides subsidize food adoption), fintech integration (GrabPay drives retention), and the same network serving multiple needs. Crypto applications include starting with a killer feature (trading) then expanding adjacently, using one asset base for multiple services, implementing subscription models like Coinbase One at $29.99 monthly, employing data-driven personalization, and balancing growth versus profitability.

Gojek's multi-service strategy from day one with ride, courier, and food evolved to 20+ services, merging with Tokopedia to create the $18 billion GoTo Group. Revenue derives from service commissions, GoPay processing $6.3 billion, and financial services. Success factors include immediate diversification keeping drivers busy, financial inclusion focus (64% of Indonesians unbanked), deep local understanding, and ecosystem flywheel effects where each service strengthens others. Crypto applications emphasize offering multiple services immediately rather than sequential addition, solving financial inclusion (crypto wallets as bank accounts), recognizing local understanding beats global templates, and understanding financial services create stickiness.

The reasons super apps succeeded in Asia but struggled in the West illuminate crypto opportunities. Asian advantages included mobile-first markets skipping the desktop era, financial inclusion gaps (billions unbanked), less restrictive initial regulations, cultural comfort with single platforms, and infrastructure gaps making services like ride-hailing essential. Western challenges encompass strong incumbent infrastructure (banks, credit cards, PayPal), privacy concerns (GDPR, cultural preferences), platform lock-in through iOS/Android ecosystems, and regulatory fragmentation across 50 states and 27 EU countries.

Crypto super apps possess unique advantages: borderless operation by nature, targeting the unbanked similar to Grab and Gojek, wallets functioning as bank accounts enabling financial inclusion, Web3 dApps serving as mini-programs without platform risk, and token incentives aligning interests. Challenges include price volatility (problematic for payments), UX complexity (wallets, gas fees, seed phrases), regulatory uncertainty, scaling limitations, and trust issues from hacks and scams.

Regulatory frameworks and investment perspectives shape super app viability

The regulatory landscape has matured significantly in 2024-2025, with the GENIUS Act signed July 2025 establishing landmark bipartisan stablecoin legislation providing federal regulatory framework in the US. The Trump administration's January 2025 executive order established a Working Group on Digital Asset Markets, with Paul Atkins appointed SEC Chair replacing Gary Gensler's enforcement-heavy approach, and David Sacks as White House crypto/AI czar. The CLARITY Act defines SEC versus CFTC jurisdictional boundaries (digital commodities under CFTC, securities under SEC), while the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act prohibits retail CBDC development.

Multi-service platforms face jurisdictional fragmentation across multiple regulators (SEC, CFTC, FinCEN, OCC, state regulators) creating compliance complexity. State-by-state licensing requires money transmitter licenses in 40+ states through NMLS. Platforms offering trading, payments, and DeFi must navigate securities law, commodities law, and money transmission regulations simultaneously. The 2025 outlook anticipates reduced enforcement under Atkins' SEC, increased institutional adoption following Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF approvals, and the Crypto Task Force focusing on security status clarity, registration relief for token offerings, and broker-dealer frameworks for digital assets.

The EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) achieved full implementation in December 2024, providing comprehensive three-pillar structure covering Crypto-Asset Service Providers (CASPs) licensing, Asset-Referenced Tokens (ARTs) regulation, and E-Money Tokens (EMTs) regulation. CASP authorization becomes mandatory for exchanges, custody, trading, portfolio management, advice, and transfer services, with capital requirements of €50,000-€150,000 minimum plus ongoing prudential requirements. The transitional period extends until July 2026 for existing providers, creating temporary regulatory arbitrage opportunities before comprehensive enforcement.

Dubai's VARA represents the gold standard for crypto regulation according to industry participants. Henri Arslanian stated the VARA licensing was "by far the most difficult" of 60-70 applications he completed, with "the most stringent" ongoing supervision. The framework requires physical presence mandates (must have Dubai operations to conduct transactions), transparent ownership with clear chain of ownership and UBO disclosure, comprehensive rulebooks covering company regulations, compliance and risk management, technology and information, and market conduct. Marketing restrictions implemented October 2024 specify only licensed VASPs can market activities, applying to all targeting UAE. Notable licenses include Binance (first major exchange), Nine Blocks Capital (first licensed crypto hedge fund), OKX (January 2024 full approval), and Laser Digital.

The Middle East crypto market reached $110.3 billion in 2024 with projections of $234.3 billion by 2033 representing 8.74% CAGR. UAE crypto app downloads surged from 6.2 million in 2023 to 15 million in 2024, a 241% year-over-year increase. In March 2025, MGX (Abu Dhabi) invested $2 billion in Binance representing the largest institutional crypto investment to date. For super apps, Dubai presents very high compliance bars with timing improving due to regulatory clarity, bespoke regulatory pathways for DeFi services (Mantra Chain received VASP license with DeFi extension), prohibition of anonymity-enhanced cryptocurrencies, and one-year renewable licenses with annual supervision fees.

Ciara Sun's investment thesis emphasizes operational value-add through "active role in investments to ensure long-term success" from token design and community building to marketing and business development. Her C² Ventures maintains intimate understanding of exchange listings through collaboration with "world's top centralized and decentralized exchanges," helping portfolio companies navigate "wide range of liquidity channels." The chain-agnostic approach makes early-stage investments across all major Layer 1 and Layer 2 ecosystems, focusing on "empowering builders with capital and operational expertise to build and scale the next generation of Web3 and metaverse applications." Her background as VP of Huobi leading global business development, listings, and institutional business provides deep understanding of how exchanges evolve into multi-service platforms.

Henri Arslanian's perspective centers on institutional-grade compliance and traditional finance best practices. His statement that institutional investors want digital assets "via fund managers who have established digital assets track record, are regulated, have traditional finance experience" signals the importance of operational excellence. His emphasis that "regulatory clarity allows us to take bigger swings" while maintaining "highest operational due diligence requirements" suggests successful super apps must solve concentration risk and counterparty exposure while building diversified revenue streams. His role advising "world's leading crypto exchanges" at PwC and co-founding ACX International (world's largest crypto compliance services firm with 250+ staff) positions him uniquely to evaluate super app operational complexity.

Broader VC investment reached $13.6-13.7 billion in crypto and blockchain funding in 2024 (28% increase from 2023's $10.1-10.3 billion), with PitchBook forecasting over $18 billion in 2025 representing near-doubling. Seed stage activity surged with pre-seed transactions in Bitcoin startups increasing 50% in 2024 and 767% from 2021-2024. Median seed-stage pre-money valuations jumped 70% from $11.8 million to $20 million in 2024, while early-stage valuations more than doubled year-over-year. Licensed entities command 20-40% valuation premiums, with regulatory moats increasingly recognized as competitive advantages.

M&A activity signals consolidation with 2024 seeing 143 deals totaling $2.8 billion (excluding the outlier Stripe-Bridge acquisition). The 2025 projection anticipates up to $30 billion in deal value (10x increase) across approximately 400 deals. Major transactions include Coinbase acquiring Deribit for $2.9 billion in May 2025 (largest crypto-crypto acquisition achieving global derivatives leadership), Kraken acquiring NinjaTrader for $1.5 billion enabling entry to regulated futures, equities, and payments, Ripple acquiring Hidden Road for $1.25 billion in April 2025 (first crypto firm owning global prime brokerage), and Stripe acquiring Bridge for $1.1 billion in October 2024 for stablecoin infrastructure (closed February 2025).

Future innovations will make blockchain invisible by 2030

Account abstraction through ERC-4337 represents the most transformative near-term innovation, enabling gasless transactions where paymasters enable fee payment in any token or sponsor transactions entirely, social recovery replacing seed phrases with trusted contacts, multi-signature and spending limits through programmable security policies, biometric authentication via Apple and Google passkeys eliminating private key management, and transaction batching approving multiple operations with a single signature. Leading implementations include Coinbase Smart Wallet (free, self-custodial, passkey-based on Base Sepolia testnet), Argent specializing in Layer 2s (zkSync, StarkNet) with social recovery, and Safe (formerly Gnosis Safe) as the leading multi-signature solution for DAOs and institutions. Deployment costs have fallen to $0.15-$0.45 per account on Layer 2s versus $7-$10 on Ethereum mainnet.

Intent-based architectures create paradigm shifts where users declare desired outcomes ("I want to buy rETH on Arbitrum with USDC on Mainnet") rather than specify execution steps. Solvers compete to fulfill intents via optimal pathways, eliminating MEV exploitation. The architecture flows from intent expression (user signs intent message with constraints for price, time, assets) through intent pool (decentralized discovery mechanism for solvers), solver competition (third parties compete for best execution), to settlement (final state verified on blockchain). Leading projects include Anoma (intent-centric architecture with decentralized solving supporting cross-domain intents), Essential (DSL for expressing intents with ERC-compatible AA standard for EVM chains), SUAVE by Flashbots (unbundles block building creating decentralized MEV alternative), and production implementations like UniswapX and CowSwap.

Real-world asset tokenization has reached $30.24 billion in September 2025, representing 380% growth in three years. Private credit dominates at 58% market share ($14 billion), US Treasuries at 34% ($8.2 billion). Major institutional players include BlackRock's $2.9 billion BUIDL fund, Franklin Templeton's $420 million BENJI fund, and Centrifuge with $1 billion TVL. Market projections range from conservative $3 trillion by 2028 (Bernstein) to moderate $16 trillion by 2030 (BCG, Roland Berger) to bullish $30 trillion by 2034 (Standard Chartered). Super app integration will offer tokenized real estate, commodities, bonds, and private equity directly in-app with $10 minimum fractional ownership, instant settlement, 24/7 trading of traditionally illiquid assets, and programmable assets with embedded compliance and automatic dividend distribution.

AI integration is accelerating with the global blockchain AI market valued at $550.70 million in 2024 projected to reach $3.7 billion by 2033. Current innovations include AI trading bots offering 24/7 automated trading with speeds 5-10 seconds faster than competitors (platforms like 3Commas, Cryptohopper, Photon Sol), AI-enhanced smart contracts bringing AI datasets on-chain through Chainlink and oracle networks, and predictive analytics with Token Metrics AI raising $8.5 million for real-time insights from AI agents. By 2027-2030, AI agents will handle portfolio management, tax optimization, and risk assessment as standard features, natural language processing will enable complex transaction execution through conversational interfaces, and AI-driven personalization will tailor DeFi strategies to individual risk profiles.

Web3 gaming integration has captured $40 billion of the $184 billion global gaming market in 2024, projected to reach $60 billion by 2030. Currently 4.2 million daily active wallets engage in blockchain gaming representing 30% of Web3 activity. Major franchises like Ubisoft (Might & Magic: Fates) and Sega (KAI: Battle of Three Kingdoms) are entering the space. The play-to-own evolution moves beyond play-to-earn to emphasize engaging gameplay with true asset ownership, interoperability enables cross-game asset transfers and reputation systems, AI-powered gaming creates autonomous worlds with dynamic NPCs, and SocialFi integration combines gaming with social tokens and community engagement. By 2027-2030, gaming becomes the primary onboarding mechanism for mainstream crypto adoption, with seamless in-game asset trading within super app wallets, cross-title item compatibility, integration with DeFi enabling in-game assets as loan collateral, and virtual economies rivaling real-world GDPs.

Layer 2 solutions drove 20% increases in Ethereum activity in 2025 with combined TVL exceeding $10 billion across major networks. Transaction throughput reaches 4,000-65,000 TPS versus Ethereum's 15-30 TPS, with fee reductions exceeding 90% compared to mainnet. Arbitrum leads with 40,000 TPS and 600+ dApps holding $6.2 billion TVL, while Base (Coinbase) processed 81 million stablecoin transactions in September 2025 focusing on retail applications. By 2027-2030, Layer 2s will handle 95%+ of transaction volume while Ethereum mainnet serves as settlement layer, interoperability protocols will make chain selection invisible to users, specialized Layer 2s for specific use cases (gaming, social, finance) will proliferate, and Layer 2 tokens will become major crypto assets.

User adoption will reach 4 billion by 2030 through invisible interfaces

Expert projections for crypto super apps anticipate explosive user growth from 560-659 million current users globally to 1 billion by 2026-2027 (5x increase from 2024) and 4 billion by 2030 according to Raoul Pal—representing one-eighth of the global population. The adoption curve follows internet adoption trajectory with 43-137% annual growth rates. Market capitalization forecasts suggest the crypto market reaching potentially $100 trillion by 2034, Bitcoin at $77,000-$155,000 range in 2025 with potential path to $1 million by 2035, stablecoin markets at $3-10 trillion by 2030, RWA tokenization at $3-30 trillion by 2030-2034, and blockchain solutions market at $162.84 billion by 2027 and $3.1 trillion by 2030.

Stablecoin payment adoption represents the most critical near-term catalyst. The $260 billion stablecoin market processed $27.6 trillion in transfer volume in 2024, exceeding Visa and Mastercard combined. Merchants save 2-3% in credit card fees, settlement occurs instantly versus 2-3 day bank transfers, and global reach enables borderless payments without currency conversion fees. Predicted timelines suggest Amazon and Walmart launching branded stablecoins with SMBs (restaurants, coffee shops) adopting crypto payment rails by 2025-2027, traditional payment companies pivoting or facing extinction while emerging markets achieve mass stablecoin adoption by 2027-2030, and universal interoperability creating unified global payment systems with traditional banking obsolete except for regulated stablecoin services by 2030-2033.

The convergence of centralized and decentralized finance creates hybrid models where CeFi provides regulatory compliance, user trust, and institutional-grade custody while DeFi provides efficiency, transparency, programmability, and 24/7 operation. Integration mechanisms include DeFi protocols with compliance layers (KYC/AML at entry points), CeFi platforms adopting DeFi technologies (AMMs, smart contracts), regulated stablecoins bridging centralized and decentralized systems, and institutional DeFi with permissioned access and reporting. Financial systems won't be fully centralized or fully decentralized but exist on a spectrum, with super apps offering both CeFi and DeFi services seamlessly and users choosing based on use case rather than ideology.

Banking sector transformation follows a clear timeline. In 2025-2027, traditional banks lose deposits to yield-bearing stablecoins and payment processors face existential threats from crypto rails. From 2027-2030, bank branch networks shrink dramatically as digital-native crypto banks scale and traditional banking deposits flee to programmable money. By 2030-2035, banking becomes obsolete except for regulated stablecoin services as the financial system operates on programmable money infrastructure. Capital markets experience 24/7 trading of all asset classes, instant settlement eliminating counterparty risk, fractional ownership democratizing access to high-value assets, and peer-to-peer lending at scale reducing the need for bank intermediation.

Technical prerequisites for mass adoption are being solved now: account abstraction eliminates seed phrase barriers, Layer 2s provide speed and low costs comparable to Web2, intent-based UX removes the need to understand blockchain, stablecoins provide price stability for everyday use, while interoperability protocols unify the fragmented ecosystem and regulatory clarity enables institutional participation. User onboarding strategies emphasize gaming as gateway (4.2 million daily active wallets bringing users on-chain organically), stablecoins for payments (emerging markets adopting for currency stability, enterprises for cost savings), social and creator tokens (communities bringing fans on-chain through tokenized engagement), invisible blockchain (Mercado Bitcoin's model where users don't realize they're using crypto), and financial incentives (yield-bearing accounts outperforming traditional savings).

Conclusion: invisible blockchain powers the financial future

By 2030, the crypto super app will be indistinguishable from mainstream financial services, with users never seeing blockchain technology, accessing multiple financial services (banking, investing, payments, lending, insurance) in one application, owning real tokenized assets (real estate, bonds, art, commodities) alongside crypto, participating in creator economies via social tokens, gaming for value with truly owned tradeable items, paying for everything as merchants seamlessly accept crypto via stablecoins, controlling complex operations through natural language intent commands, trusting smart wallets with biometric authentication and social recovery, accessing global markets with 24/7 trading and instant settlement, and earning passive income through staking, yield farming, and lending integrated into savings accounts.

The strategic imperative centers on three converging forces reshaping finance: regulatory maturation providing operational clarity through frameworks like MiCA, GENIUS Act, and Dubai VARA; VC capital deployment exceeding $18 billion in 2025 funding the infrastructure buildout; and platform consolidation through M&A potentially reaching $30 billion as exchanges acquire capabilities and geographic reach. The transformation from exchanges to ecosystems isn't optional—it's the survival imperative for centralized platforms facing structural threats from decentralized alternatives capturing sophisticated traders and traditional fintech companies onboarding mainstream users.

Success requires balancing seemingly contradictory forces: centralized efficiency with decentralized innovation, regulatory compliance with permissionless access, institutional-grade security with consumer-friendly interfaces, and trading revenue with diversified income streams. Henri Arslanian's emphasis on institutional standards and Ciara Sun's focus on operational value-add through ecosystem partnerships illuminate the dual requirements of technical excellence and strategic positioning. MEXC's hybrid CEX-DEX model and BingX's AI-powered social trading represent divergent yet viable approaches—asset access versus user empowerment, institutional infrastructure versus mainstream appeal.

The super app won't be called a "crypto app"—it will simply be how people manage financial lives. Blockchain will be invisible infrastructure like TCP/IP underpinning the internet. The question isn't whether crypto super apps transform finance, but how quickly traditional finance gets displaced by superior technology offering lower costs, instant settlement, global access, programmable functionality, and true asset ownership. Those positioning at the convergence of technology, regulatory compliance, and user experience are building the next generation of trillion-dollar platforms serving billions of users in the financial system's greatest restructuring since the advent of central banking.

Institutional Flows into Digital Assets (2025)

· 11 min read
Dora Noda
Software Engineer

Introduction

Digital assets are no longer the speculative fringe of finance; they have become a mainstream allocation for pension funds, endowments, corporate treasuries and sovereign wealth funds. In 2025, macro‑economic conditions (easing monetary policy and lingering inflation), regulatory clarity and maturing infrastructure encouraged institutions to increase exposure to crypto assets, stablecoins and tokenized real‑world assets (RWAs). This report synthesizes up‑to‑date data on institutional flows into digital assets, highlighting allocation trends, the vehicles used, and the drivers and risks shaping the market.

Macro environment and regulatory catalysts

  • Monetary tailwinds and search for yield. The Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates in mid‑2025, easing financial conditions and reducing the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding assets. AInvest notes that the first rate cut triggered a $1.9 billion surge in institutional inflows during the week of September 23, 2025. Lower rates also drove capital out of traditional safe‑havens into tokenized treasuries and higher‑growth crypto assets.
  • Regulatory clarity. The U.S. CLARITY Act, the stablecoin‑focused GENIUS Act (July 18 2025) and the repeal of SEC Staff Accounting Bulletin 121 removed custodial hurdles and provided a federal framework for stablecoins and crypto custody. The European Union’s MiCAR regulation became fully operational in January 2025, harmonising rules across the EU. EY’s 2025 institutional investor survey found that regulatory clarity is perceived as the number‑one catalyst for growth.
  • Infrastructure maturation. Multi‑party computation (MPC) custody, off‑exchange settlement, tokenization platforms and risk‑management models made digital assets safer and more accessible. Platforms like Cobo emphasise wallet‑as‑a‑service solutions and programmable payment rails to meet institutional demand for secure, compliant infrastructure.

Overall penetration and allocation sizes

  • Widespread participation. EY’s survey of 352 institutional investors (January 2025) reports that 86 % of respondents already hold or intend to hold digital assets. A majority (85 %) increased their allocations in 2024 and 59 % expect to allocate more than 5 % of assets under management (AUM) to crypto by the end of 2025. The Economist Impact research brief similarly finds that 69 % of institutions planned to increase allocations and that crypto holdings were expected to reach 7.2 % of portfolios by 2027.
  • Motivations. Institutions cite higher risk‑adjusted returns, diversification, inflation hedging, technological innovation and yield generation as primary reasons for investing. Many investors now view under‑exposure to crypto as a portfolio risk.
  • Diversification beyond Bitcoin. EY reports that 73 % of institutions hold altcoins beyond Bitcoin and Ether. Galaxy’s July 2025 lending commentary shows hedge funds executing $1.73 billion in short ETH futures while simultaneously pouring billions into spot ETH ETFs to capture a 9.5 % annualised basis yield. CoinShares’ weekly flow data highlight sustained inflows into altcoins like XRP, Solana and Avalanche even when Bitcoin funds see outflows.

Preferred investment vehicles

  • Exchange‑traded products (ETPs). The EY survey notes that 60 % of institutions prefer regulated vehicles (ETFs/ETPs). Spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in the U.S. in January 2024 quickly became a primary access point. By mid‑July 2025, global Bitcoin ETF AUM reached $179.5 billion, with more than $120 billion in U.S.‑listed products. Chainalysis reports that assets in tokenized U.S. treasury money‑market funds (e.g., Superstate USTB, BlackRock’s BUIDL) quadrupled from $2 billion in August 2024 to over $7 billion by August 2025, giving institutions a compliant, yield‑bearing on‑chain alternative to stablecoins.
  • DeFi and staking. DeFi participation is rising from 24 % of institutions in 2024 to an expected 75 % by 2027. Galaxy notes that lending protocols saw elevated borrowing rates in July 2025, causing liquid staking tokens to de‑peg and underscoring both the fragility and maturity of DeFi markets. Yield farming strategies and basis trades produced double‑digit annualised returns, attracting hedge funds.
  • Tokenized real‑world assets. About 57 % of institutions in EY’s survey are interested in tokenizing real‑world assets. Tokenized treasuries have grown over 300 % year‑on‑year: the market expanded from about $1 billion in March 2024 to roughly $4 billion by March 2025. Unchained’s analysis shows that tokenized treasuries grew 20 × faster than stablecoins and offer roughly 4.27 % yields. Chainalysis notes that tokenized treasury funds quadrupled to $7 billion by August 2025, while stablecoin volumes also surged.

Flows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs

Surge of inflows after ETF launches

  • Launch and early inflows. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading in January 2024. Amberdata reports that January 2025 saw net inflows of $4.5 billion into these ETFs. MicroStrategy’s treasury company added 11,000 BTC (~$1.1 billion), illustrating corporate participation.
  • Record assets and Q3 2025 surge. By Q3 2025, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had attracted $118 billion of institutional inflows, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) commanding $86 billion AUM and net inflows of $54.75 billion. Global Bitcoin ETF AUM approached $219 billion by early September 2025. Bitcoin’s price rally to ~$123,000 by July 2025 and the SEC’s approval of in‑kind creations boosted investor confidence.
  • Ethereum ETF momentum. Following SEC approvals of spot Ethereum ETFs in May 2025, ETH‑based ETPs attracted heavy inflows. VanEck’s August 2025 recap notes $4 billion of inflows into ETH ETPs in August, while Bitcoin ETPs saw $600 million outflows. CoinShares’ June 2 report highlighted a $321 million weekly inflow into Ethereum products, marking the strongest run since December 2024.

Short‑term outflows and volatility

  • US‑led outflows. CoinShares’ February 24 2025 report recorded $508 million of outflows after an 18‑week run of inflows, driven mainly by U.S. Bitcoin ETF redemptions. A later report (June 2 2025) noted modest Bitcoin outflows while altcoins (Ethereum, XRP) continued to see inflows. By September 29 2025, digital asset funds faced $812 million in weekly outflows, with the U.S. accounting for $1 billion in redemptions. Switzerland, Canada and Germany still recorded inflows of $126.8 million, $58.6 million and $35.5 million respectively.
  • Liquidity and macro pressures. AInvest’s Q3 2025 commentary notes that leveraged positions faced $1.65 billion in liquidations and that Bitcoin treasury purchases fell 76 % from July peaks due to hawkish Federal Reserve signals. Galaxy highlights that while 80,000 BTC (~$9 billion) was sold OTC in July 2025, the market absorbed the supply with minimal disruption, indicating growing market depth.

Diversification into altcoins and DeFi

  • Altcoin flows. CoinShares’ September 15 report recorded $646 million inflows into Ethereum and $145 million into Solana, with notable inflows into Avalanche and other altcoins. The February 24 report noted that even as Bitcoin funds faced $571 million outflows, funds tied to XRP, Solana, Ethereum and Sui still attracted inflows. AInvest’s September 2025 piece highlights $127.3 million of institutional inflows into Solana and $69.4 million into XRP, along with year‑to‑date Ethereum inflows of $12.6 billion.
  • DeFi yield strategies. Galaxy’s analysis illustrates how institutional treasuries use basis trades and leveraged lending to generate yield. BTC’s 3‑month annualized basis widened from 4 % to nearly 10 % by early August 2025, encouraging leveraged positions. Hedge funds built $1.73 billion of short ETH futures while buying spot ETH ETFs, capturing ~9.5 % yields. Elevated borrowing rates on Aave (peaking at ~18 %) triggered deleveraging and liquid staking token de‑pegs, exposing structural fragility but also demonstrating a more orderly response than previous crises.
  • DeFi growth metrics. Total value locked (TVL) in DeFi reached a three‑year high of $153 billion by July 2025, according to Galaxy. VanEck reports that DeFi TVL increased 11 % month‑over‑month in August 2025, and the supply of stablecoins across blockchains grew to $276 billion, a 36 % increase year‑to‑date.

Stablecoins and tokenized cash

  • Explosive growth. Stablecoins provide the plumbing for crypto markets. Chainalysis estimates that monthly stablecoin transaction volumes exceeded $2–3 trillion in 2025, with adjusted on‑chain volume of nearly $16 trillion between January and July. McKinsey reports that stablecoins circulate ~$250 billion and process $20–30 billion of on‑chain transactions per day, amounting to more than $27 trillion annually. Citi estimates that stablecoin issuance increased from $200 billion at the start of 2025 to $280 billion, and forecasts issuance could reach $1.9 trillion (base case) to $4 trillion by 2030.
  • Tokenized treasuries and yield. As discussed earlier, tokenized U.S. treasuries grew from $1 billion to $4+ billion between March 2024 and March 2025, and Chainalysis notes AUM of $7 billion by August 2025. The yield on tokenized treasuries (~4.27 %) appeals to traders seeking to earn interest on collateral. Prime brokerages such as FalconX accept tokenized money‑market tokens as collateral, signalling institutional acceptance.
  • Payments and remittances. Stablecoins facilitate trillions of dollars of remittances and cross‑border settlements. They are widely used for yield strategies and arbitrage, but regulatory frameworks (e.g., GENIUS Act, Hong Kong’s Stablecoin Ordinance) are still evolving. Flagship Advisory Partners reports that stablecoin transaction volumes reached $5.7 trillion in 2024 and grew 66 % in Q1 2025.

Venture capital and private‑market flows

  • Renewed venture funding. AMINA Bank’s analysis notes that 2025 marked a turning point for crypto fundraising. Venture capital investment reached $10.03 billion in Q2 2025—double the level a year earlier, with $5.14 billion raised in June alone. Circle’s $1.1 billion IPO in June 2025 and subsequent public listings of firms like eToro, Chime and Galaxy Digital signalled that compliant, revenue‑generating crypto firms could access deep public‑market liquidity. Private placements targeted Bitcoin accumulation and tokenization strategies; Strive Asset Management raised $750 million and TwentyOneCapital $585 million. Securitize launched an institutional crypto index fund with $400 million anchor capital.
  • Sector concentration. In H1 2025, trading and exchanges captured 48 % of VC capital, DeFi and liquidity platforms 15 %, infrastructure and data 12 %, custody and compliance 10 %, AI‑powered decentralized infrastructure 8 % and NFTs/gaming 7 %. Investors prioritised firms with validated revenue and regulatory alignment.
  • Projected institutional flows. A forecasting study by UTXO Management and Bitwise estimates that institutional investors could drive $120 billion of inflows into Bitcoin by the end of 2025 and $300 billion by 2026, implying acquisition of over 4.2 million BTC (≈20 % of supply). They project that nation‑states, wealth‑management platforms, public companies and sovereign wealth funds could collectively contribute these inflows. Wealth‑management platforms alone control ~$60 trillion in client assets; even a 0.5 % allocation would generate $300 billion of inflows. The report argues that Bitcoin is transitioning from a tolerated asset to a strategic reserve for governments, with bills pending in several U.S. states.

Risks and challenges

  • Volatility and liquidity events. Despite maturing markets, digital assets remain volatile. September 2025 saw $903 million net outflows from U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, reflecting risk‑off sentiment amid Fed hawkishness. A wave of $1.65 billion in liquidations and a 76 % drop in corporate Bitcoin treasury purchases underscored how leverage can amplify downturns. DeFi deleveraging events caused liquid staking tokens to de‑peg.
  • Regulatory uncertainty outside major jurisdictions. While the U.S., EU and parts of Asia have clarified rules, other regions remain uncertain. SEC enforcement actions and MiCAR compliance burdens can drive innovation offshore. Hedgeweek/Blockchain News notes that outflows were concentrated in the U.S. whereas Switzerland, Canada and Germany still saw inflows.
  • Custody and operational risks. Large stablecoin issuers still operate in a regulatory grey zone. Run risk on major stablecoins and valuation opacity for certain crypto assets pose systemic concerns. The Federal Reserve warns that stablecoin run risk, leverage in DeFi platforms and interconnectedness could threaten financial stability if the sector continues to grow without robust oversight.

Conclusion

Institutional flows into digital assets accelerated markedly in 2025, transforming crypto from a speculative niche into a strategic asset class. Surveys show that most institutions either already hold or plan to hold digital assets, and the average allocation is poised to exceed 5 % of portfolios. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have unlocked billions in inflows and catalyzed record AUM, while altcoins, DeFi protocols and tokenized treasuries offer diversification and yield opportunities. Venture funding and corporate treasury adoption also signal confidence in the long‑term utility of blockchain technology.

Drivers of this institutional wave include macro‑economic tailwinds, regulatory clarity (MiCAR, CLARITY and the GENIUS Act), and maturing infrastructure. Nevertheless, volatility, leverage, custody risk and uneven global regulation continue to pose challenges. As stablecoin volumes and tokenized RWA markets expand, oversight will be critical to avoid systemic risks. Looking ahead, the intersection of decentralized finance, tokenization of traditional securities, and integration with wealth‑management platforms may usher in a new era where digital assets become a core component of institutional portfolios.

Goldman Sachs and Zoltan Pozsar at TOKEN2049: Inside the Closed-Door Chat on Macro, Crypto, and a New World Order

· 5 min read
Dora Noda
Software Engineer

In the world of high finance, some conversations are so critical they happen behind closed doors. At TOKEN2049 on October 1st, one such session is set to capture the industry's attention: “Goldman Sachs with Zoltan Pozsar: Macro & Crypto.” This isn't just another panel; it's a 30-minute fireside chat governed by Chatham House Rules, ensuring that the insights shared are candid, unfiltered, and unattributable.

The stage will feature two titans of finance: Zoltan Pozsar, founder of Ex Uno Plures and the intellectual architect of the "Bretton Woods III" thesis, alongside Timothy Moe, Partner and Co-Head of Asian Macro Research at Goldman Sachs. For attendees, this is a rare opportunity to hear a visionary macro strategist and a top-tier institutional investor debate the future of money, the waning dominance of the dollar, and the explosive role of digital assets.

The Speakers: A Visionary Meets an Institutional Powerhouse

To understand the weight of this session, one must understand the speakers:

  • Zoltan Pozsar: Widely regarded as one of Wall Street's most influential thinkers, Pozsar is a former senior adviser at the U.S. Treasury and strategist at the New York Fed. He is most famous for mapping the "shadow banking" system and, more recently, for his compelling "Bretton Woods III" thesis, which argues that we are shifting from a dollar-centric financial system to one based on "outside money" like commodities, gold, and potentially, crypto.
  • Timothy Moe: A veteran of Asian markets, Moe leads Goldman Sachs' regional equity strategy, guiding the firm’s institutional clients through the complexities of 11 Asia-Pacific markets. With a career spanning decades at firms like Salomon Brothers and Jardine Fleming before becoming a partner at Goldman in 2006, Moe brings a grounded, practical perspective on how global macro trends translate into real-world investment decisions.

Pozsar’s Thesis: The Dawn of Bretton Woods III

At the heart of the discussion is Pozsar’s transformative vision of the global financial order. He argues the world is moving away from a system built on "inside money" (fiat currencies and government debt) towards one underpinned by "outside money" – tangible assets outside the control of a single sovereign issuer.

His core arguments include:

  • A Multipolar Monetary World: The era of absolute U.S. dollar dominance is ending. Pozsar foresees a system where the Chinese renminbi and the euro play larger roles in trade settlement, with gold re-emerging as a neutral reserve asset.
  • Persistent Inflation and New Portfolios: Forget the inflation of the 1970s. Pozsar believes chronic under-investment in the real economy will keep prices high for the foreseeable future. This renders the traditional 60/40 stock/bond portfolio obsolete, leading him to suggest a new allocation: 20% cash, 40% equities, 20% bonds, and 20% commodities.
  • De-Dollarization is Accelerating: Geopolitical fractures and Western sanctions have pushed nations like China to build parallel financial plumbing, using currency swap lines and gold exchanges to bypass the dollar framework.

Where Does Bitcoin Fit In?

For the TOKEN2049 audience, the key question is how crypto fits into this new world. Pozsar's view is both intriguing and cautious.

He acknowledges that the core thesis of Bitcoin—a scarce, private, non-state form of money—aligns perfectly with his concept of "outside money." He appreciates that its value comes from being outside government control.

However, he raises a critical question: money has always been a public or public-private partnership. A purely private money with no state sanction is historically unprecedented. He humorously notes that Western central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) "miss the point," as they fail to offer the very non-inflatable, non-governmental properties that attract people to Bitcoin in the first place. His primary concern for Bitcoin remains the tail risk of a cryptographic failure, a technical vulnerability that physical gold doesn't share.

Bridging Theory and Action: The Goldman Sachs Perspective

This is where Timothy Moe’s role becomes crucial. As a strategist for Goldman Sachs in Asia, Moe will be the bridge between Pozsar’s grand theories and the actionable questions on investors' minds. The discussion is expected to delve into:

  • Asian Capital Flows: How will a multi-polar currency system affect trade and investment across Asia?
  • Institutional Adoption: How do Asia's institutional investors view Bitcoin versus other commodities like gold?
  • Portfolio Strategy: Does Pozsar’s 20/40/20/20 allocation model hold up under the scrutiny of Goldman's macro research?
  • CBDCs in Asia: With Asian central banks leading the charge on digital currency experiments, how do they view the rise of private crypto?

Final Thoughts

The "Goldman Sachs with Zoltan Pozsar" session is more than just a talk; it's a real-time glimpse into the strategic thinking shaping the future of finance. It brings together a prophet of a new monetary age with a pragmatic leader from the heart of the current system. The conversation promises to offer a nuanced, high-level perspective on whether crypto will be a footnote in financial history or a cornerstone of the emerging Bretton Woods III order. For anyone invested in the future of money, this is a dialogue not to be missed.

Visions on the Rise of Digital Asset Treasuries

· 10 min read
Dora Noda
Software Engineer

Overview

Digital asset treasuries (DATs) are publicly listed corporations whose primary business model is to accumulate and manage crypto‑tokens such as ETH or SOL. They raise capital through stock offerings or convertible bonds and use the proceeds to purchase tokens, stake them to earn yield, and grow tokens per share via savvy financial engineering. DATs blend features of corporate treasuries, investment trusts and DeFi protocols; they let mainstream investors gain exposure to crypto without holding the coins directly and operate like “on‑chain banks.” The following sections synthesise the visions of four influential leaders—Tom Lee (Fundstrat/BitMine), Joseph Lubin (Consensys/SharpLink), Sam Tabar (Bit Digital) and Cosmo Jiang (Pantera Capital)—who are shaping this emerging sector.

Tom Lee – Fundstrat Co‑founder & BitMine Chairman

Long‑term thesis: Ethereum as the neutral chain for the AI–crypto super‑cycle

  • In 2025 Tom Lee pivoted the former Bitcoin miner BitMine into an Ethereum treasury company. He argues that AI and crypto are the two major investment narratives of the decade and both require neutral public blockchains, with Ethereum offering high reliability and a decentralised settlement layer. Lee describes ETH’s current price as a “discount to the future”—he believes that the combination of institutional finance and artificial intelligence will eventually need Ethereum’s neutral public blockchain to operate at scale, making ETH “one of the biggest macro trades of the next decade”.
  • Lee believes tokenised real‑world assets, stablecoins and on‑chain AI will drive unprecedented demand for Ethereum. In a Daily Hodl interview he said ETH treasuries added over 234 k ETH in one week, pushing BitMine’s holdings above 2 million ETH. He explained that Wall Street and AI moving on‑chain will transform the financial system and most of this will happen on Ethereum, hence BitMine aims to acquire 5 % of ETH’s total supply, dubbed the “alchemy of 5 %”. He also expects ETH to remain the preferred chain because of pro‑crypto legislation (e.g., CLARITY & GENIUS Acts) and described Ethereum as the “neutral chain” favoured by both Wall Street and the White House.

DAT mechanics: building shareholder value

  • In Pantera’s 2025 blockchain letter, Lee explained how DATs can create value beyond token price appreciation. By issuing stock or convertible bonds to raise capital, staking their ETH, using DeFi to earn yield and acquiring other treasuries, they can increase tokens per share and maintain a NAV premium. He views stablecoins as the “ChatGPT story of crypto” and believes on‑chain cash flows from stablecoin transactions will support ETH treasuries.
  • Lee emphasises that DATs have multiple levers that make them more attractive than ETFs: staking yields, velocity (rapid issuance of shares to acquire tokens) and liquidity (ability to raise capital quickly). In a Bankless discussion he noted that BitMine moved 12 × faster than MicroStrategy in accumulating crypto and described BitMine’s liquidity advantage as critical for capturing a NAV premium.
  • He also stresses risk management. Market participants must differentiate between credible leaders and those issuing aggressive debt; investors should focus on execution, clear strategy and risk controls. Lee warns that mNAV premiums compress as more companies adopt the model and that DATs need to deliver performance beyond simply holding tokens.

Vision for the future

Lee predicts a long super‑cycle in which Ethereum underpins tokenised AI economies and digital asset treasuries become mainstream. He foresees ETH reaching US $10–12 k in the near term and much higher over a 10–15 year time horizon. He also notes that major institutions like Cathie Wood and Bill Miller are already investing in DATs and expects more Wall Street firms to view ETH treasuries as a core holding.

ETH treasuries as storytelling and yield machines

  • Lubin argues that Ethereum treasury companies are more powerful than Bitcoin treasuries because ETH is productive. By staking tokens and using DeFi, treasuries can generate yield and grow ETH per share, making them “more powerful than Bitcoin treasuries”. SharpLink converts capital into ETH daily and stakes it immediately, creating compounding growth.
  • He sees DATs as a way to tell the Ethereum story to Wall Street. On CNBC he explained that Wall Street pays attention to making money; by offering a profitable equity vehicle, DATs can communicate ETH’s value better than simple messaging about smart contracts. While Bitcoin’s narrative is easy to grasp (digital gold), Ethereum spent years building infrastructure—treasury strategies highlight its productivity and yield.
  • Lubin stresses that ETH is high‑powered, uncensorable money. In an August 2025 interview he said SharpLink’s goal is to build the largest trusted ETH treasury and keep accumulating ETH, with one million ETH merely a near‑term signpost. He calls Ethereum the base layer for global finance, citing that it settled over US $25 trillion in transactions in 2024 and hosts most real‑world assets and stablecoins.

Competitive landscape and regulation

  • Lubin welcomes new entrants into the ETH treasury race because they amplify Ethereum’s credibility; however, he believes SharpLink holds an advantage due to its ETH‑native team, staking know‑how and institutional credibility. He predicts ETFs will eventually be allowed to stake, but until then treasury companies like SharpLink can fully stake ETH and earn yield.
  • In a CryptoSlate interview he noted that the supply–demand imbalance for ETH and daily purchases by treasuries will accelerate adoption. He emphasised that decentralisation is the direction of travel and expects both ETH and BTC to continue rising as the world becomes more decentralised.
  • SharpLink quietly shifted its focus from sports betting technology to Ethereum in early 2025. According to shareholder filings, it converted significant portions of its liquid reserves into ETH—176 270 ETH for $462.9 million in July 2025 and another 77 210 ETH for $295 million a day later. An August 2025 direct offering raised $400 million and a $200 million at‑the‑market facility, pushing SharpLink’s reserves beyond 598 800 ETH.
  • Lubin says SharpLink accumulates tens of millions of dollars in ETH daily and stakes it via DeFi to generate yield. Standard Chartered analysts have noted that ETH treasuries like SharpLink remain undervalued relative to their holdings.

Sam Tabar – CEO of Bit Digital

Rationale for pivoting to Ethereum

  • After profitably running a Bitcoin mining and AI infrastructure business, Sam Tabar led Bit Digital’s complete pivot into an Ethereum treasury and staking company. He sees Ethereum’s programmable smart‑contract platform, growing adoption and staking yields as capable of rewriting the financial system. Tabar asserts that if BTC and ETH had launched simultaneously, Bitcoin might not exist because Ethereum enables trustless value exchange and complex financial primitives.
  • Bit Digital sold 280 BTC and raised around $172 million to purchase over 100 k ETH. Tabar has emphasised that Ethereum is no longer a side asset but the centerpiece of Bit Digital’s balance sheet and that the firm intends to continue acquiring ETH to become the leading corporate holder. The company announced a direct offering of 22 million shares priced at $3.06 to raise $67.3 million for further ETH purchases.

Financing strategy and risk management

  • Tabar is a strong proponent of using unsecured convertible debt rather than secured loans. He warns that secured debt could “destroy” ETH treasury companies in a bear market because creditors might seize the tokens when prices fall. By issuing unsecured convertible notes, Bit Digital retains flexibility and avoids encumbering its assets.
  • In a Bankless interview he compared the ETH treasury race to Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin playbook but noted that Bit Digital is a real business with cash flows from AI infrastructure and mining; it aims to leverage those profits to grow its ETH holdings. He described competition among ETH treasuries as friendly but emphasised that mindshare is limited—companies must aggressively accumulate ETH to attract investors, yet more treasuries ultimately benefit Ethereum by raising its price and awareness.

Vision for the future

Tabar envisions a world where Ethereum replaces much of the existing financial infrastructure. He believes regulatory clarity (e.g., the GENIUS Act) has unlocked the path for companies like Bit Digital to build compliant ETH treasuries and sees the staking yield and programmability of ETH as core drivers of future value. He also highlights that DATs open the door for public‑market investors who cannot buy crypto directly, democratizing access to the Ethereum ecosystem.

Cosmo Jiang – General Partner at Pantera Capital

Investment thesis: DATs as on‑chain banks

  • Cosmo Jiang views DATs as sophisticated financial institutions that operate more like banks than passive token holders. In an Index Podcast summary he explained that DATs are evaluated like banks: if they generate a return above their cost of capital, they trade above book value. According to Jiang, investors should focus on NAV‑per‑share growth—analogous to free cash‑flow per share—rather than token price, because execution and capital allocation drive returns.
  • Jiang argues that DATs can generate yield by staking and lending, increasing asset value per share and producing more tokens than simply holding spot. One determinant of success is the long‑term strength of the underlying token; this is why Pantera’s Solana Company (HSDT) uses Solana as its treasury reserve. He contends that Solana offers fast settlement, ultra‑low fees and a monolithic design that is faster, cheaper and more accessible—echoing Jeff Bezos’s “holy trinity” of consumer wants.
  • Jiang also notes that DATs effectively lock up supply because they operate like closed‑end funds; once tokens are acquired, they rarely sell, reducing liquid supply and potentially supporting prices. He sees DATs as a bridge that brings tens of billions of dollars from traditional investors who prefer equities over direct crypto exposure.

Building the pre‑eminent Solana treasury

  • Pantera has been a pioneer in DATs, anchoring early launches such as DeFi Development Corp (DFDV) and Cantor Equity Partners (CEP) and investing in BitMine. Jiang writes that they have reviewed over fifty DAT pitches and that their early success has positioned Pantera as a first call for new projects.
  • In September 2025 Pantera announced Solana Company (HSDT) with more than $500 million in funding, designed to maximize SOL per share and provide public‑market exposure to Solana. Jiang’s DAT thesis states that owning a DAT could offer higher return potential than holding tokens directly or via an ETF because DATs grow NAV per share through yield generation. The fund aims to scale institutional access to Solana and leverage Pantera’s track record to build the pre‑eminent Solana treasury.
  • He emphasises that the timing is critical: digital asset equities have enjoyed a tailwind as investors search for crypto exposure beyond ETFs. However, he warns that excitement will invite competition; some DATs will succeed while others fail. Pantera’s strategy is to back high‑quality teams, filter for incentive‑aligned management and support consolidation (M&A or buybacks) in downside scenarios.

Conclusion

Collectively, these leaders see digital asset treasuries as a bridge between traditional finance and the emerging token economy. Tom Lee envisions ETH treasuries as vehicles to capture the AI–crypto super‑cycle and aims to accumulate 5 % of Ethereum’s supply; he stresses velocity, yield and liquidity as key drivers of NAV premiums. Joseph Lubin views ETH treasuries as yield‑generating machines that tell the Ethereum story to Wall Street while pushing DeFi and staking into mainstream finance. Sam Tabar is betting that Ethereum’s programmability and staking yields will rewrite financial infrastructure and warns against secured debt, promoting aggressive yet prudent accumulation through unsecured financing. Cosmo Jiang frames DATs as on‑chain banks whose success depends on capital allocation and NAV‑per‑share growth; he is building the pre‑eminent Solana treasury to showcase how DATs can unlock new growth cycles. All four anticipate that DATs will continue to proliferate and that public‑market investors will increasingly choose them as vehicles for exposure to crypto’s next chapter.

The Crypto Endgame: Insights from Industry Visionaries

· 12 min read
Dora Noda
Software Engineer

Visions from Mert Mumtaz (Helius), Udi Wertheimer (Taproot Wizards), Jordi Alexander (Selini Capital) and Alexander Good (Post Fiat)

Overview

Token2049 hosted a panel called “The Crypto Endgame” featuring Mert Mumtaz (CEO of Helius), Udi Wertheimer (Taproot Wizards), Jordi Alexander (Founder of Selini Capital) and Alexander Good (creator of Post Fiat). While there is no publicly available transcript of the panel, each speaker has expressed distinct visions for the long‑term trajectory of the crypto industry. This report synthesizes their public statements and writings—spanning blog posts, articles, news interviews and whitepapers—to explore how each person envisions the “endgame” for crypto.

Mert Mumtaz – Crypto as “Capitalism 2.0”

Core vision

Mert Mumtaz rejects the idea that cryptocurrencies simply represent “Web 3.0.” Instead, he argues that the endgame for crypto is to upgrade capitalism itself. In his view:

  • Crypto supercharges capitalism’s ingredients: Mumtaz notes that capitalism depends on the free flow of information, secure property rights, aligned incentives, transparency and frictionless capital flows. He argues that decentralized networks, public blockchains and tokenization make these features more efficient, turning crypto into “Capitalism 2.0”.
  • Always‑on markets & tokenized assets: He points to regulatory proposals for 24/7 financial markets and the tokenization of stocks, bonds and other real‑world assets. Allowing markets to run continuously and settle via blockchain rails will modernize the legacy financial system. Tokenization creates always‑on liquidity and frictionless trading of assets that previously required clearing houses and intermediaries.
  • Decentralization & transparency: By using open ledgers, crypto removes some of the gate‑keeping and information asymmetries found in traditional finance. Mumtaz views this as an opportunity to democratize finance, align incentives and reduce middlemen.

Implications

Mumtaz’s “Capitalism 2.0” thesis suggests that the industry’s endgame is not limited to digital collectibles or “Web3 apps.” Instead, he envisions a future where nation‑state regulators embrace 24/7 markets, asset tokenization and transparency. In that world, blockchain infrastructure becomes a core component of the global economy, blending crypto with regulated finance. He also warns that the transition will face challenges—such as Sybil attacks, concentration of governance and regulatory uncertainty—but believes these obstacles can be addressed through better protocol design and collaboration with regulators.

Udi Wertheimer – Bitcoin as a “generational rotation” and the altcoin reckoning

Generational rotation & Bitcoin “retire your bloodline” thesis

Udi Wertheimer, co‑founder of Taproot Wizards, is known for provocatively defending Bitcoin and mocking altcoins. In mid‑2025 he posted a viral thesis called “This Bitcoin Thesis Will Retire Your Bloodline.” According to his argument:

  • Generational rotation: Wertheimer argues that the early Bitcoin “whales” who accumulated at low prices have largely sold or transferred their coins. Institutional buyers—ETFs, treasuries and sovereign wealth funds—have replaced them. He calls this process a “full‑scale rotation of ownership”, similar to Dogecoin’s 2019‑21 rally where a shift from whales to retail demand fueled explosive returns.
  • Price‑insensitive demand: Institutions allocate capital without caring about unit price. Using BlackRock’s IBIT ETF as an example, he notes that new investors see a US$40 increase as trivial and are willing to buy at any price. This supply shock combined with limited float means Bitcoin could accelerate far beyond consensus expectations.
  • $400K+ target and altcoin collapse: He projects that Bitcoin could exceed US$400 000 per BTC by the end of 2025 and warns that altcoins will underperform or even collapse, with Ethereum singled out as the “biggest loser”. According to Wertheimer, once institutional FOMO sets in, altcoins will “get one‑shotted” and Bitcoin will absorb most of the capital.

Implications

Wertheimer’s endgame thesis portrays Bitcoin as entering its final parabolic phase. The “generational rotation” means that supply is moving into strong hands (ETFs and treasuries) while retail interest is just starting. If correct, this would create a severe supply shock, pushing BTC price well beyond current valuations. Meanwhile, he believes altcoins offer asymmetric downside because they lack institutional bid support and face regulatory scrutiny. His message to investors is clear: load up on Bitcoin now before Wall Street buys it all.

Jordi Alexander – Macro pragmatism, AI & crypto as twin revolutions

Investing in AI and crypto – two key industries

Jordi Alexander, founder of Selini Capital and a known game theorist, argues that AI and blockchain are the two most important industries of this century. In an interview summarised by Bitget he makes several points:

  • The twin revolutions: Alexander believes the only ways to achieve real wealth growth are to invest in technological innovation (particularly AI) or to participate early in emerging markets like cryptocurrency. He notes that AI development and crypto infrastructure will be the foundational modules for intelligence and coordination this century.
  • End of the four‑year cycle: He asserts that the traditional four‑year crypto cycle driven by Bitcoin halvings is over; instead the market now experiences liquidity‑driven “mini‑cycles.” Future up‑moves will occur when “real capital” fully enters the space. He encourages traders to see inefficiencies as opportunity and to develop both technical and psychological skills to thrive in this environment.
  • Risk‑taking & skill development: Alexander advises investors to keep most funds in safe assets but allocate a small portion for risk‑taking. He emphasizes building judgment and staying adaptable, as there is “no such thing as retirement” in a rapidly evolving field.

Critique of centralized strategies and macro views

  • MicroStrategy’s zero‑sum game: In a flash note he cautions that MicroStrategy’s strategy of buying BTC may be a zero‑sum game. While participants might feel like they are winning, the dynamic could hide risks and lead to volatility. This underscores his belief that crypto markets are often driven by negative‑sum or zero‑sum dynamics, so traders must understand the motivations of large players.
  • Endgame of U.S. monetary policy: Alexander’s analysis of U.S. macro policy highlights that the Federal Reserve’s control over the bond market may be waning. He notes that long‑term bonds have fallen sharply since 2020 and believes the Fed may soon pivot back to quantitative easing. He warns that such policy shifts could cause “gradually at first … then all at once” market moves and calls this a key catalyst for Bitcoin and crypto.

Implications

Jordi Alexander’s endgame vision is nuanced and macro‑oriented. Rather than forecasting a singular price target, he highlights structural changes: the shift to liquidity‑driven cycles, the importance of AI‑driven coordination and the interplay between government policy and crypto markets. He encourages investors to develop deep understanding and adaptability rather than blindly following narratives.

Alexander Good – Web 4, AI agents and the Post Fiat L1

Web 3’s failure and the rise of AI agents

Alexander Good (also known by his pseudonym “goodalexander”) argues that Web 3 has largely failed because users care more about convenience and trading than owning their data. In his essay “Web 4” he notes that consumer app adoption depends on seamless UX; requiring users to bridge assets or manage wallets kills growth. However, he sees an existential threat emerging: AI agents that can generate realistic video, control computers via protocols (such as Anthropic’s “Computer Control” framework) and hook into major platforms like Instagram or YouTube. Because AI models are improving rapidly and the cost of generating content is collapsing, he predicts that AI agents will create the majority of online content.

Web 4: AI agents negotiating on the blockchain

Good proposes Web 4 as a solution. Its key ideas are:

  • Economic system with AI agents: Web 4 envisions AI agents representing users as “Hollywood agents” negotiate on their behalf. These agents will use blockchains for data sharing, dispute resolution and governance. Users provide content or expertise to agents, and the agents extract value—often by interacting with other AI agents across the world—and then distribute payments back to the user in crypto.
  • AI agents handle complexity: Good argues that humans will not suddenly start bridging assets to blockchains, so AI agents must handle these interactions. Users will simply talk to chatbots (via Telegram, Discord, etc.), and AI agents will manage wallets, licensing deals and token swaps behind the scenes. He predicts a near‑future where there are endless protocols, tokens and computer‑to‑computer configurations that will be unintelligible to humans, making AI assistance essential.
  • Inevitable trends: Good lists several trends supporting Web 4: governments’ fiscal crises encourage alternatives; AI agents will cannibalize content profits; people are getting “dumber” by relying on machines; and the largest companies bet on user‑generated content. He concludes that it is inevitable that users will talk to AI systems, those systems will negotiate on their behalf, and users will receive crypto payments while interacting primarily through chat apps.

Mapping the ecosystem and introducing Post Fiat

Good categorizes existing projects into Web 4 infrastructure or composability plays. He notes that protocols like Story, which create on‑chain governance for IP claims, will become two‑sided marketplaces between AI agents. Meanwhile, Akash and Render sell compute services and could adapt to license to AI agents. He argues that exchanges like Hyperliquid will benefit because endless token swaps will be needed to make these systems user‑friendly.

His own project, Post Fiat, is positioned as a “kingmaker in Web 4.” Post Fiat is a Layer‑1 blockchain built on XRP’s core technology but with improved decentralization and tokenomics. Key features include:

  • AI‑driven validator selection: Instead of relying on human-run staking, Post Fiat uses large language models (LLMs) to score validators on credibility and transaction quality. The network distributes 55% of tokens to validators through a process managed by an AI agent, with the goal of “objectivity, fairness and no humans involved”. The system’s monthly cycle—publish, score, submit, verify and select & reward—ensures transparent selection.
  • Focus on investing & expert networks: Unlike XRP’s transaction‑bank focus, Post Fiat targets financial markets, using blockchains for compliance, indexing and operating an expert network composed of community members and AI agents. AGTI (Post Fiat’s development arm) sells products to financial institutions and may launch an ETF, with revenues funding network development.
  • New use cases: The project aims to disrupt the indexing industry by creating decentralized ETFs, provide compliant encrypted memos and support expert networks where members earn tokens for insights. The whitepaper details technical measures—such as statistical fingerprinting and encryption—to prevent Sybil attacks and gaming.

Web 4 as survival mechanism

Good concludes that Web 4 is a survival mechanism, not just a cool ideology. He argues that a “complexity bomb” is coming within six months as AI agents proliferate. Users will have to give up some upside to AI systems because participating in agentic economies will be the only way to thrive. In his view, Web 3’s dream of decentralized ownership and user privacy is insufficient; Web 4 will blend AI agents, crypto incentives and governance to navigate an increasingly automated economy.

Comparative analysis

Converging themes

  1. Institutional & technological shifts drive the endgame.
    • Mumtaz foresees regulators enabling 24/7 markets and tokenization, which will mainstream crypto.
    • Wertheimer highlights institutional adoption via ETFs as the catalyst for Bitcoin’s parabolic phase.
    • Alexander notes that the next crypto boom will be liquidity‑driven rather than cycle‑driven and that macro policies (like the Fed’s pivot) will provide powerful tailwinds.
  2. AI becomes central.
    • Alexander emphasises investing in AI alongside crypto as twin pillars of future wealth.
    • Good builds Web 4 around AI agents that transact on blockchains, manage content and negotiate deals.
    • Post Fiat’s validator selection and governance rely on LLMs to ensure objectivity. Together these visions imply that the endgame for crypto will involve synergy between AI and blockchain, where AI handles complexity and blockchains provide transparent settlement.
  3. Need for better governance and fairness.
    • Mumtaz warns that centralization of governance remains a challenge.
    • Alexander encourages understanding game‑theoretic incentives, pointing out that strategies like MicroStrategy’s can be zero‑sum.
    • Good proposes AI‑driven validator scoring to remove human biases and create fair token distribution, addressing governance issues in existing networks like XRP.

Diverging visions

  1. Role of altcoins. Wertheimer sees altcoins as doomed and believes Bitcoin will capture most capital. Mumtaz focuses on the overall crypto market including tokenized assets and DeFi, while Alexander invests across chains and believes inefficiencies create opportunity. Good is building an alt‑L1 (Post Fiat) specialized for AI finance, implying he sees room for specialized networks.
  2. Human agency vs AI agency. Mumtaz and Alexander emphasize human investors and regulators, whereas Good envisions a future where AI agents become the primary economic actors and humans interact through chatbots. This shift implies fundamentally different user experiences and raises questions about autonomy, fairness and control.
  3. Optimism vs caution. Wertheimer’s thesis is aggressively bullish on Bitcoin with little concern for downside. Mumtaz is optimistic about crypto improving capitalism but acknowledges regulatory and governance challenges. Alexander is cautious—highlighting inefficiencies, zero‑sum dynamics and the need for skill development—while still believing in crypto’s long‑term promise. Good sees Web 4 as inevitable but warns of the complexity bomb, urging preparation rather than blind optimism.

Conclusion

The Token2049 “Crypto Endgame” panel brought together thinkers with very different perspectives. Mert Mumtaz views crypto as an upgrade to capitalism, emphasizing decentralization, transparency and 24/7 markets. Udi Wertheimer sees Bitcoin entering a supply‑shocked generational rally that will leave altcoins behind. Jordi Alexander adopts a more macro‑pragmatic stance, urging investment in both AI and crypto while understanding liquidity cycles and game‑theoretic dynamics. Alexander Good envisions a Web 4 era where AI agents negotiate on blockchains and Post Fiat becomes the infrastructure for AI‑driven finance.

Although their visions differ, a common theme is the evolution of economic coordination. Whether through tokenized assets, institutional rotation, AI‑driven governance or autonomous agents, each speaker believes crypto will fundamentally reshape how value is created and exchanged. The endgame therefore seems less like an endpoint and more like a transition into a new system where capital, computation and coordination converge.

BASS 2025: Charting the Future of Blockchain Applications, from Space to Wall Street

· 8 min read
Dora Noda
Software Engineer

The Blockchain Application Stanford Summit (BASS) kicked off the week of the Science of Blockchain Conference (SBC), bringing together innovators, researchers, and builders to explore the cutting edge of the ecosystem. Organizers Gil, Kung, and Stephen welcomed attendees, highlighting the event's focus on entrepreneurship and real-world applications, a spirit born from its close collaboration with SBC. With support from organizations like Blockchain Builders and the Cryptography and Blockchain Alumni of Stanford, the day was packed with deep dives into celestial blockchains, the future of Ethereum, institutional DeFi, and the burgeoning intersection of AI and crypto.

Dalia Maliki: Building an Orbital Root of Trust with Space Computer

Dalia Maliki, a professor at UC Santa Barbara and an advisor to Space Computer, opened with a look at a truly out-of-this-world application: building a secure computing platform in orbit.

What is Space Computer? In a nutshell, Space Computer is an "orbital root of trust," providing a platform for running secure and confidential computations on satellites. The core value proposition lies in the unique security guarantees of space. "Once a box is launched securely and deployed into space, nobody can come later and hack into it," Maliki explained. "It's purely, perfectly tamper-proof at this point." This environment makes it leak-proof, ensures communications cannot be easily jammed, and provides verifiable geolocation, offering powerful decentralization properties.

Architecture and Use Cases The system is designed with a two-tier architecture:

  • Layer 1 (Celestial): The authoritative root of trust runs on a network of satellites in orbit, optimized for limited and intermittent communication.
  • Layer 2 (Terrestrial): Standard scaling solutions like rollups and state channels run on Earth, anchoring to the celestial Layer 1 for finality and security.

Early use cases include running highly secure blockchain validators and a true random number generator that captures cosmic radiation. However, Maliki emphasized the platform's potential for unforeseen innovation. "The coolest thing about building a platform is always that you build a platform and other people will come and build use cases that you never even dreamed of."

Drawing a parallel to the ambitious Project Corona of the 1950s, which physically dropped film buckets from spy satellites to be caught mid-air by aircraft, Maliki urged the audience to think big. "By comparison, what we work with today in space computer is a luxury, and we're very excited about the future."

Tomasz Stanczak: The Ethereum Roadmap - Scaling, Privacy, and AI

Tomasz Stanczak, Executive Director of the Ethereum Foundation, provided a comprehensive overview of Ethereum's evolving roadmap, which is heavily focused on scaling, enhancing privacy, and integrating with the world of AI.

Short-Term Focus: Supporting L2s The immediate priority for Ethereum is to solidify its role as the best platform for Layer 2s to build upon. Upcoming forks, Fusaka and Glumpsterdom, are centered on this goal. "We want to make much stronger statements that yes, [L2s] innovate, they extend Ethereum, and they will have a commitment from protocol builders that Layer 1 will support L2s in the best way possible," Stanczak stated.

Long-Term Vision: Lean Ethereum and Real-Time Proving Looking further ahead, the "Lean Ethereum" vision aims for massive scalability and security hardening. A key component is the ZK-EVM roadmap, which targets real-time proving with latencies under 10 seconds for 99% of blocks, achievable by solo stakers. This, combined with data availability improvements, could push L2s to a theoretical "10 million TPS." The long-term plan also includes a focus on post-quantum cryptography through hash-based signatures and ZK-EVMs.

Privacy and the AI Intersection Privacy is another critical pillar. The Ethereum Foundation has established the Privacy and Scaling Explorations (PSC) team to coordinate efforts, support tooling, and explore protocol-level privacy integrations. Stanczak sees this as crucial for Ethereum's interaction with AI, enabling use cases like censorship-resistant financial markets, privacy-preserving AI, and open-source agentic systems. He emphasized that Ethereum's culture of connecting multiple disciplines—from finance and art to robotics and AI—is essential for navigating the challenges and opportunities of the next decade.

Sreeram Kannan: The Trust Framework for Ambitious Crypto Apps with EigenCloud

Sreeram Kannan, founder of Eigen Labs, challenged the audience to think beyond the current scope of crypto applications, presenting a framework for understanding crypto's core value and introducing EigenCloud as a platform to realize this vision.

Crypto's Core Thesis: A Verifiability Layer "Underpinning all of this is a core thesis that crypto is the trust or verifiability layer on top of which you can build very powerful applications," Kannan explained. He introduced a "TAM vs. Trust" framework, illustrating that the total addressable market (TAM) for a crypto application grows exponentially as the trust it underwrites increases. Bitcoin's market grows as it becomes more trusted than fiat currencies; a lending platform's market grows as its guarantee of borrower solvency becomes more credible.

EigenCloud: Unleashing Programmability Kannan argued that the primary bottleneck for building more ambitious apps—like a decentralized Uber or trustworthy AI platforms—is not performance but programmability. To solve this, EigenCloud introduces a new architecture that separates application logic from token logic.

"Let's keep the token logic on-chain on Ethereum," he proposed, "but the application logic is moved outside. You can actually now write your core logic in arbitrary containers... execute them on any device of your choice, whether it's a CPU or a GPU... and then bring these results verifiably back on-chain."

This approach, he argued, extends crypto from a "laptop or server scale to cloud scale," allowing developers to build the truly disruptive applications that were envisioned in crypto's early days.

Panel: A Deep Dive into Blockchain Architecture

A panel featuring Leiyang from MegaETH, Adi from Realo, and Solomon from the Solana Foundation explored the trade-offs between monolithic, modular, and "super modular" architectures.

  • MegaETH (Modular L2): Leiyang described MegaETH's approach of using a centralized sequencer for extreme speed while delegating security to Ethereum. This design aims to deliver a Web2-level real-time experience for applications, reviving the ambitious "ICO-era" ideas that were previously limited by performance.
  • Solana (Monolithic L1): Solomon explained that Solana's architecture, with its high node requirements, is deliberately designed for maximum throughput to support its vision of putting all global financial activity on-chain. The current focus is on asset issuance and payments. On interoperability, Solomon was candid: "Generally speaking, we don't really care about interoperability... It's about getting as much asset liquidity and usage on-chain as possible."
  • Realo ("Super Modular" L1): Adi introduced Realo's "super modular" concept, which consolidates essential services like oracles directly into the base layer to reduce developer friction. This design aims to natively connect the blockchain to the real world, with a go-to-market focus on RWAs and making the blockchain invisible to end-users.

Panel: The Real Intersection of AI and Blockchain

Moderated by Ed Roman of HackVC, this panel showcased three distinct approaches to merging AI and crypto.

  • Ping AI (Bill): Ping AI is building a "personal AI" where users maintain self-custody of their data. The vision is to replace the traditional ad-exchange model. Instead of companies monetizing user data, Ping AI's system will reward users directly when their data leads to a conversion, allowing them to capture the economic value of their digital footprint.
  • Public AI (Jordan): Described as the "human layer of AI," Public AI is a marketplace for sourcing high-quality, on-demand data that can't be scraped or synthetically generated. It uses an on-chain reputation system and staking mechanisms to ensure contributors provide signal, not noise, rewarding them for their work in building better AI models.
  • Gradient (Eric): Gradient is creating a decentralized runtime for AI, enabling distributed inference and training on a network of underutilized consumer hardware. The goal is to provide a check on the centralizing power of large AI companies by allowing a global community to collaboratively train and serve models, retaining "intelligent sovereignty."

More Highlights from the Summit

  • Orin Katz (Starkware) presented building blocks for "compliant on-chain privacy," detailing how ZK-proofs can be used to create privacy pools and private tokens (ZRC20s) that include mechanisms like "viewing keys" for regulatory oversight.
  • Sam Green (Cambrian) gave an overview of the "Agentic Finance" landscape, categorizing crypto agents into trading, liquidity provisioning, lending, prediction, and information, and highlighted the need for fast, comprehensive, and verifiable data to power them.
  • Max Siegel (Privy) shared lessons from onboarding over 75 million users, emphasizing the need to meet users where they are, simplify product experiences, and let product needs inform infrastructure choices, not the other way around.
  • Nil Dalal (Coinbase) introduced the "Onchain Agentic Commerce Stack" and the open standard X42, a crypto-native protocol designed to create a "machine-payable web" where AI agents can seamlessly transact using stablecoins for data, APIs, and services.
  • Gordon Liao & Austin Adams (Circle) unveiled Circle Gateway, a new primitive for creating a unified USDC balance that is chain-abstracted. This allows for near-instant (<500ms) deployment of liquidity across multiple chains, dramatically improving capital efficiency for businesses and solvers.

The day concluded with a clear message: the foundational layers of crypto are maturing, and the focus is shifting decisively towards building robust, user-friendly, and economically sustainable applications that can bridge the gap between the on-chain world and the global economy.

The Rise of Autonomous Capital

· 45 min read
Dora Noda
Software Engineer

AI-powered agents controlling their own cryptocurrency wallets are already managing billions in assets, making independent financial decisions, and reshaping how capital flows through decentralized systems. This convergence of artificial intelligence and blockchain technology—what leading thinkers call "autonomous capital"—represents a fundamental transformation in economic organization, where intelligent software can operate as self-sovereign economic actors without human intermediation. The DeFi AI (DeFAI) market reached $1 billion in early 2025, while the broader AI agent market peaked at $17 billion, demonstrating rapid commercial adoption despite significant technical, regulatory, and philosophical challenges. Five key thought leaders—Tarun Chitra (Gauntlet), Amjad Masad (Replit), Jordi Alexander (Selini Capital), Alexander Pack (Hack VC), and Irene Wu (Bain Capital Crypto)—are pioneering different approaches to this space, from automated risk management and development infrastructure to investment frameworks and cross-chain interoperability. Their work is creating the foundation for a future where AI agents may outnumber humans as primary blockchain users, managing portfolios autonomously and coordinating in decentralized networks—though this vision faces critical questions about accountability, security, and whether trustless infrastructure can support trustworthy AI decision-making.

What autonomous capital means and why it matters now

Autonomous capital refers to capital (financial assets, resources, decision-making power) controlled and deployed by autonomous AI agents operating on blockchain infrastructure. Unlike traditional algorithmic trading or automated systems requiring human oversight, these agents hold their own cryptocurrency wallets with private keys, make independent strategic decisions, and participate in decentralized finance protocols without continuous human intervention. The technology converges three critical innovations: AI's decision-making capabilities, crypto's programmable money and trustless execution, and smart contracts' ability to enforce agreements without intermediaries.

The technology has already arrived. As of October 2025, over 17,000 AI agents operate on Virtuals Protocol alone, with notable agents like AIXBT commanding $500 million valuations and Truth Terminal spawning the GOAT memecoin that briefly reached \1 billion. Gauntlet's risk management platform analyzes 400+ million data points daily across DeFi protocols managing billions in total value locked. Replit's Agent 3 enables 200+ minutes of autonomous software development, while SingularityDAO's AI-managed portfolios delivered 25% ROI in two months through adaptive market-making strategies.

Why this matters: Traditional finance excludes AI systems regardless of sophistication—banks require human identity and KYC checks. Cryptocurrency wallets, by contrast, are generated through cryptographic key pairs accessible to any software agent. This creates the first financial infrastructure where AI can operate as independent economic actors, opening possibilities for machine-to-machine economies, autonomous treasury management, and AI-coordinated capital allocation at scales and speeds impossible for humans. Yet it also raises profound questions about who is accountable when autonomous agents cause harm, whether decentralized governance can manage AI risks, and if the technology will concentrate or democratize economic power.

The thought leaders shaping autonomous capital

Tarun Chitra: From simulation to automated governance

Tarun Chitra, CEO and co-founder of Gauntlet (valued at $1 billion), pioneered applying agent-based simulation from algorithmic trading and autonomous vehicles to DeFi protocols. His vision of "automated governance" uses AI-driven simulations to enable protocols to make decisions scientifically rather than through subjective voting alone. In his landmark 2020 article "Automated Governance: DeFi's Scientific Evolution," Chitra articulated how continuous adversarial simulation could create "a safer, more efficient DeFi ecosystem that's resilient to attacks and rewards honest participants fairly."

Gauntlet's technical implementation proves the concept at scale. The platform runs thousands of simulations daily against actual smart contract code, models profit-maximizing agents interacting within protocol rules, and provides data-driven parameter recommendations for $1+ billion in protocol assets. His framework involves codifying protocol rules, defining agent payoffs, simulating agent interactions, and optimizing parameters to balance macroscopic protocol health with microscopic user incentives. This methodology has influenced major DeFi protocols including Aave (4-year engagement), Compound, Uniswap, and Morpho, with Gauntlet publishing 27 research papers on constant function market makers, MEV analysis, liquidation mechanisms, and protocol economics.

Chitra's 2023 founding of Aera protocol advanced autonomous treasury management, enabling DAOs to respond quickly to market changes through "crowdsourced investment portfolio management." His recent focus on AI agents reflects predictions that they will "dominate on-chain financial activity" and that "AI will change the course of history in crypto" by 2025. From Token2049 appearances in London (2021), Singapore (2024, 2025), and regular podcast hosting on The Chopping Block, Chitra consistently emphasizes moving from subjective human governance to data-driven, simulation-tested decision-making.

Key insight: "Finance itself is fundamentally a legal practice—it's money plus law. Finance becomes more elegant with smart contracts." His work demonstrates that autonomous capital isn't about replacing humans entirely, but about using AI to make financial systems more scientifically rigorous through continuous simulation and optimization.

Amjad Masad: Building infrastructure for the network economy

Amjad Masad, CEO of Replit (valued at $3 billion as of October 2025), envisions a radical economic transformation where autonomous AI agents with crypto wallets replace traditional hierarchical software development with decentralized network economies. His viral 2022 Twitter thread predicted "monumental changes coming to software this decade," arguing AI represents the next 100x productivity boost enabling programmers to "command armies" of AI agents while non-programmers could also command agents for software tasks.

The network economy vision centers on autonomous agents as economic actors. In his Sequoia Capital podcast interview, Masad described a future where "software agents and I'm going to say, 'Okay. Well, I need to create this product.' And the agent is going to be like, 'Oh. Well, I'm going to go grab this database from this area, this thing that sends SMS or email from this area. And by the way, they're going to cost this much.' And as an agent I actually have a wallet, I'm going to be able to pay for them." This replaces the factory pipeline model with network-based composition where agents autonomously assemble services and value flows automatically through the network.

Replit's Agent 3, launched September 2025, demonstrates this vision technically with 10x more autonomy than predecessors—operating for 200+ minutes independently, self-testing and debugging through "reflection loops," and building other agents and automations. Real users report building $400 ERP systems versus $150,000 vendor quotes and 85% productivity increases. Masad predicts the "value of all application software will eventually 'go to zero'" as AI enables anyone to generate complex software on demand, transforming the nature of companies from specialized roles to "generalist problem solvers" augmented by AI agents.

On crypto's role, Masad strongly advocates Bitcoin Lightning Network integration, viewing programmable money as an essential platform primitive. He stated: "Bitcoin Lightning, for example, bakes value right into the software supply chain and makes it easier to transact both human-to-human and machine-to-machine. Driving the transaction cost and overhead in software down means that it will be a lot easier to bring developers into your codebase for one-off tasks." His vision of Web3 as "read-write-own-remix" and plans to consider native Replit currency as a platform primitive demonstrate deep integration between AI agent infrastructure and crypto-economic coordination.

Masad spoke at the Network State Conference (October 3, 2025) in Singapore immediately following Token2049, alongside Vitalik Buterin, Brian Armstrong, and Balaji Srinivasan, positioning him as a bridge between crypto and AI communities. His prediction: "Single-person unicorns" will become common when "everyone's a developer" through AI augmentation, fundamentally changing macroeconomics and enabling the "billion developer" future where 1 billion people globally create software.

Jordi Alexander: Judgment as currency in the AI age

Jordi Alexander, Founder/CIO of Selini Capital ($1 billion+ AUM) and Chief Alchemist at Mantle Network, brings game theory expertise from professional poker (won WSOP bracelet defeating Phil Ivey in 2024) to market analysis and autonomous capital investing. His thesis centers on "judgment as currency"—the uniquely human ability to integrate complex information and make optimal decisions that machines cannot replicate, even as AI handles execution and analysis.

Alexander's autonomous capital framework emphasizes convergence of "two key industries of this century: building intelligent foundational modules (like AI) and building the foundational layer for social coordination (like crypto technology)." He argues traditional retirement planning is obsolete due to real inflation (~15% annually vs. official rates), coming wealth redistribution, and the need to remain economically productive: "There is no such thing as retirement" for those under 50. His provocative thesis: "In the next 10 years, the gap between having $100,000 and $10 million may not be that significant. What's key is how to spend the next few years" positioning effectively for the "100x moment" when wealth creation accelerates dramatically.

His investment portfolio demonstrates conviction in AI-crypto convergence. Selini backed TrueNorth ($1M seed, June 2025), described as "crypto's first autonomous, AI-powered discovery engine" using "agentic workflows" and reinforcement learning for personalized investing. The firm's largest-ever check went to Worldcoin (May 2024), recognizing "the obvious need for completely new technological infra and solutions in the coming world of AI." Selini's 46-60 total investments include Ether.fi (liquid staking), RedStone (oracles), and market-making across centralized and decentralized exchanges, demonstrating systematic trading expertise applied to autonomous systems.

Token2049 participation includes London (November 2022) discussing "Reflections on the Latest Cycle's Wild Experiments," Dubai (May 2025) on liquid venture investing and memecoins, and Singapore appearances analyzing macro-crypto interplay. His Steady Lads podcast (92+ episodes through 2025) featured Vitalik Buterin discussing crypto-AI intersections, quantum risk, and Ethereum's evolution. Alexander emphasizes escaping "survival mode" to access higher-level thinking, upskilling constantly, and building judgment through experience as essential for maintaining economic relevance when AI agents proliferate.

Key perspective: "Judgment is the ability to integrate complex information and make optimal decisions—this is precisely where machines fall short." His vision sees autonomous capital as systems where AI executes at machine speed while humans provide strategic judgment, with crypto enabling the coordination layer. On Bitcoin specifically: "the only digital asset with true macro significance" projected for 5-10x growth over five years as institutional capital enters, viewing it as superior property rights protection versus vulnerable physical assets.

Alexander Pack: Infrastructure for decentralized AI economies

Alexander Pack, Co-Founder and Managing Partner at Hack VC (managing ~$590M AUM), describes Web3 AI as "the biggest source of alpha in investing today," allocating 41% of the firm's latest fund to AI-crypto convergence—the highest concentration among major crypto VCs. His thesis: "AI's rapid evolution is creating massive efficiencies, but also increasing centralization. The intersection of crypto and AI is by far the biggest investment opportunity in the space, offering an open, decentralized alternative."

Pack's investment framework treats autonomous capital as requiring four infrastructure layers: data (Grass investment—$2.5B FDV), compute (io.net—$2.2B FDV), execution (Movement Labs—$7.9B FDV, EigenLayer—$4.9B FDV), and security (shared security through restaking). The Grass investment demonstrates the thesis: a decentralized network of 2.5+ million devices performs web scraping for AI training data, already collecting 45TB daily (equivalent to ChatGPT 3.5 training dataset). Pack articulated: "Algorithms + Data + Compute = Intelligence. This means that Data and Compute will likely become two of the world's most important assets, and access to them will be incredibly important. Crypto is all about giving access to new digital resources around the world and asset-izing things that weren't assets before via tokens."

Hack VC's 2024 performance validates the approach: Second most active lead crypto VC, deploying $128M across dozens of deals, with 12 crypto x AI investments producing 4 unicorns in 2024 alone. Major token launches include Movement Labs ($7.9B), EigenLayer ($4.9B), Grass ($2.5B), io.net ($2.2B), Morpho ($2.4B), Kamino ($1.0B), and AltLayer ($0.9B). The firm operates Hack.Labs, an in-house platform for institutional-grade network participation, staking, quantitative research, and open-source contributions, employing former Jane Street senior traders.

From his March 2024 Unchained podcast appearance, Pack identified AI agents as capital allocators that "can autonomously manage portfolios, execute trades, and optimize yield," with DeFi integration enabling "AI agents with crypto wallets participating in decentralized financial markets." He emphasized "we are still so early" in crypto infrastructure, requiring significant improvements in scalability, security, and user experience before mainstream adoption. Token2049 Singapore 2025 confirmed Pack as a speaker (October 1-2), participating in expert discussion panels on crypto and AI topics at the premier Asia crypto event with 25,000+ attendees.

The autonomous capital framework (synthesized from Hack VC's investments and publications) envisions five layers: Intelligence (AI models), Data & Compute Infrastructure (Grass, io.net), Execution & Verification (Movement, EigenLayer), Financial Primitives (Morpho, Kamino), and Autonomous Agents (portfolio management, trading, market-making). Pack's key insight: Decentralized, transparent systems proved more resilient than centralized finance during 2022 bear markets (DeFi protocols survived while Celsius, BlockFi, FTX collapsed), suggesting blockchain better suited for AI-driven capital allocation than opaque centralized alternatives.

Irene Wu: Omnichain infrastructure for autonomous systems

Irene Wu, Venture Partner at Bain Capital Crypto and former Head of Strategy at LayerZero Labs, brings unique technical expertise to autonomous capital infrastructure, having coined the term "omnichain" to describe cross-chain interoperability via messaging. Her investment portfolio strategically positions at AI-crypto convergence: Cursor (AI-first code editor), Chaos Labs (Artificial Financial Intelligence), Ostium (leveraged trading platform), and Econia (DeFi infrastructure), demonstrating focus on verticalized AI applications and autonomous financial systems.

Wu's LayerZero contributions established foundational cross-chain infrastructure enabling autonomous agents to operate seamlessly across blockchains. She championed three core design principles—Immutability, Permissionlessness, and Censorship Resistance—and developed OFT (Omnichain Fungible Token) and ONFT (Omnichain Non-Fungible Token) standards. The Magic Eden partnership she led created "Gas Station," enabling seamless gas token conversion for cross-chain NFT purchases, demonstrating practical reduction of friction in decentralized systems. Her positioning of LayerZero as "TCP/IP for blockchains" captures the vision of universal interoperability protocols underlying agent economies.

Wu's consistent emphasis on removing friction from Web3 experiences directly supports autonomous capital infrastructure. She advocates chain abstraction—users shouldn't need to understand which blockchain they're using—and pushes for "10X better experiences to justify blockchain complexity." Her critique of crypto's research methods ("seeing on Twitter who's complaining the most") versus proper Web2-style user research interviews reflects commitment to user-centric design principles essential for mainstream adoption.

Investment thesis indicators from her portfolio reveal focus on AI-augmented development (Cursor enables AI-native coding), autonomous financial intelligence (Chaos Labs applies AI to DeFi risk management), trading infrastructure (Ostium provides leveraged trading), and DeFi primitives (Econia builds foundational protocols). This pattern strongly aligns with autonomous capital requirements: AI agents need development tools, financial intelligence capabilities, trading execution infrastructure, and foundational DeFi protocols to operate effectively.

While specific Token2049 participation wasn't confirmed in available sources (social media access restricted), Wu's speaking engagements at Consensus 2023 and Proof of Talk Summit demonstrate thought leadership in blockchain infrastructure and developer tools. Her technical background (Harvard Computer Science, software engineering at J.P. Morgan, co-founder of Harvard Blockchain Club) combined with strategic roles at LayerZero and Bain Capital Crypto positions her as a critical voice on the infrastructure requirements for AI agents operating in decentralized environments.

Theoretical foundations: Why AI and crypto enable autonomous capital

The convergence enabling autonomous capital rests on three technical pillars solving fundamental coordination problems. First, cryptocurrency provides financial autonomy impossible in traditional banking systems. AI agents can generate cryptographic key pairs to "open their own bank account" with zero human approval, accessing permissionless 24/7 global settlement and programmable money for complex automated operations. Traditional finance categorically excludes non-human entities regardless of capability; crypto is the first financial infrastructure treating software as legitimate economic actors.

Second, trustless computational substrates enable verifiable autonomous execution. Blockchain smart contracts provide Turing-complete global computers with decentralized validation ensuring tamper-proof execution where no single operator controls outcomes. Trusted Execution Environments (TEEs) like Intel SGX provide hardware-based secure enclaves isolating code from host systems, enabling confidential computation with private key protection—critical for agents since "neither cloud administrators nor malicious node operators can 'reach into the jar.'" Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN) like io.net and Phala Network combine TEEs with crowd-sourced hardware to create permissionless, distributed AI compute.

Third, blockchain-based identity and reputation systems give agents persistent personas. Self-Sovereign Identity (SSI) and Decentralized Identifiers (DIDs) enable agents to hold their own "digital passports," with verifiable credentials proving skills and on-chain reputation tracking creating immutable track records. Proposed "Know Your Agent" (KYA) protocols adapt KYC frameworks for machine identities, while emerging standards like Model Context Protocol (MCP), Agent Communication Protocol (ACP), Agent-to-Agent Protocol (A2A), and Agent Network Protocol (ANP) enable agent interoperability.

The economic implications are profound. Academic frameworks like the "Virtual Agent Economies" paper from researchers including Nenad Tomasev propose analyzing emergent AI agent economic systems along origins (emergent vs. intentional) and separateness (permeable vs. impermeable from human economy). Current trajectory: spontaneous emergence of vast, highly permeable AI agent economies with opportunities for unprecedented coordination but significant risks including systemic economic instability and exacerbated inequality. Game-theoretic considerations—Nash equilibria in agent-agent negotiations, mechanism design for fair resource allocation, auction mechanisms for resources—become critical as agents operate as rational economic actors with utility functions, making strategic decisions in multi-agent environments.

The market demonstrates explosive adoption. AI agent tokens reached $10+ billion market caps by December 2024, surging 322% in late 2024. Virtuals Protocol launched 17,000+ tokenized AI agents on Base (Ethereum L2), while ai16z operates a $2.3 billion market cap autonomous venture fund on Solana. Each agent issues tokens enabling fractional ownership, revenue sharing through staking, and community governance—creating liquid markets for AI agent performance. This tokenization model enables "co-ownership" of autonomous agents, where token holders gain economic exposure to agent activities while agents gain capital to deploy autonomously.

Philosophically, autonomous capital challenges fundamental assumptions about agency, ownership, and control. Traditional agency requires control/freedom conditions (no coercion), epistemic conditions (understanding actions), moral reasoning capacity, and stable personal identity. LLM-based agents raise questions: Do they truly "intend" or merely pattern-match? Can probabilistic systems be held responsible? Research participants note agents "are probabilistic models incapable of responsibility or intent; they cannot be 'punished' or 'rewarded' like human players" and "lack a body to experience pain," meaning conventional deterrence mechanisms fail. The "trustless paradox" emerges: deploying agents in trustless infrastructure avoids trusting fallible humans, but the AI agents themselves remain potentially untrustworthy (hallucinations, biases, manipulation), and trustless substrates prevent intervention when AI misbehaves.

Vitalik Buterin identified this tension, noting "Code is law" (deterministic smart contracts) conflicts with LLM hallucinations (probabilistic outputs). Four "invalidities" govern decentralized agents according to research: territorial jurisdictional invalidity (borderless operation defeats single-nation laws), technical invalidity (architecture resists external control), enforcement invalidity (can't stop agents after sanctioning deployers), and accountability invalidity (agents lack legal personhood, can't be sued or charged). Current experimental approaches like Truth Terminal's charitable trust with human trustees attempt separating ownership from agent autonomy while maintaining developer responsibility tied to operational control.

Predictions from leading thinkers converge on transformative scenarios. Balaji Srinivasan argues "AI is digital abundance, crypto is digital scarcity"—complementary forces where AI creates content while crypto coordinates and proves value, with crypto enabling "proof of human authenticity in world of AI deepfakes." Sam Altman's observation that AI and crypto represent "indefinite abundance and definite scarcity" captures their symbiotic relationship. Ali Yahya (a16z) synthesizes the tension: "AI centralizes, crypto decentralizes," suggesting need for robust governance managing autonomous agent risks while preserving decentralization benefits. The a16z vision of a "billion-dollar autonomous entity"—a decentralized chatbot running on permissionless nodes via TEEs, building following, generating income, managing assets without human control—represents the logical endpoint where no single point of control exists and consensus protocols coordinate the system.

Technical architecture: How autonomous capital actually works

Implementing autonomous capital requires sophisticated integration of AI models with blockchain protocols through hybrid architectures balancing computational power against verifiability. The standard approach uses three-layer architecture: perception layer gathering blockchain and external data via oracle networks (Chainlink handles 5+ billion data points daily), reasoning layer conducting off-chain AI model inference with zero-knowledge proofs of computation, and action layer executing transactions on-chain through smart contracts. This hybrid design addresses fundamental blockchain constraints—gas limits preventing heavy AI computation on-chain—while maintaining trustless execution guarantees.

Gauntlet's implementation demonstrates production-ready autonomous capital at scale. The platform's technical architecture includes cryptoeconomic simulation engines running thousands of agent-based models daily against actual smart contract code, quantitative risk modeling using ML models trained on 400+ million data points refreshed 6 times daily across 12+ Layer 1 and Layer 2 blockchains, and automated parameter optimization dynamically adjusting collateral ratios, interest rates, liquidation thresholds, and fee structures. Their MetaMorpho vault system on Morpho Blue provides elegant infrastructure for permissionless vault creation with externalized risk management, enabling Gauntlet's WETH Prime and USDC Prime vaults to optimize risk-adjusted yield across liquid staking recursive yield markets. The basis trading vaults combine LST spot assets with perpetual funding rates at up to 2x dynamic leverage when market conditions create favorable spreads, demonstrating sophisticated autonomous strategies managing real capital.

Zero-knowledge machine learning (zkML) enables trustless AI verification. The technology proves ML model execution without revealing model weights or input data using ZK-SNARKs and ZK-STARKs proof systems. Modulus Labs benchmarked proving systems across model sizes, demonstrating models with up to 18 million parameters provable in ~50 seconds using plonky2. EZKL provides open-source frameworks converting ONNX models to ZK circuits, used by OpenGradient for decentralized ML inference. RiscZero offers general-purpose zero-knowledge VMs enabling verifiable ML computation integrated with DeFi protocols. The architecture flows: input data → ML model (off-chain) → output → ZK proof generator → proof → smart contract verifier → accept/reject. Use cases include verifiable yield strategies (Giza + Yearn collaboration), on-chain credit scoring, private model inference on sensitive data, and proof of model authenticity.

Smart contract structures enabling autonomous capital include Morpho's permissionless vault deployment system with customizable risk parameters, Aera's V3 protocol for programmable vault rules, and integration with Pyth Network oracles providing sub-second price feeds. Technical implementation uses Web3 interfaces (ethers.js, web3.py) connecting AI agents to blockchain via RPC providers, with automated transaction signing using cryptographically secured multi-party computation (MPC) wallets splitting private keys across participants. Account abstraction (ERC-4337) enables programmable account logic, allowing sophisticated permission systems where AI agents can execute specific actions without full wallet control.

The Fetch.ai uAgents framework demonstrates practical agent development with Python libraries enabling autonomous economic agents registered on Almanac smart contracts. Agents operate with cryptographically secured messages, automated blockchain registration, and interval-based execution handling market analysis, signal generation, and trade execution. Example implementations show market analysis agents fetching oracle prices, conducting ML model inference, and executing on-chain trades when confidence thresholds are met, with inter-agent communication enabling multi-agent coordination for complex strategies.

Security considerations are critical. Smart contract vulnerabilities including reentrancy attacks, arithmetic overflow/underflow, access control issues, and oracle manipulation have caused $11.74+ billion in losses since 2017, with $1.5 billion lost in 2024 alone. AI agent-specific threats include prompt injection (malicious inputs manipulating agent behavior), oracle manipulation (compromised data feeds misleading decisions), context manipulation (adversarial attacks exploiting external inputs), and credential leakage (exposed API keys or private keys). Research from University College London and University of Sydney demonstrated the A1 system—an AI agent autonomously discovering and exploiting smart contract vulnerabilities with 63% success rate on 36 real-world vulnerable contracts, extracting up to $8.59 million per exploit at $0.01-$3.59 cost, proving AI agents favor exploitation over defense economically.

Security best practices include formal verification of smart contracts, extensive testnet testing, third-party audits (Cantina, Trail of Bits), bug bounty programs, real-time monitoring with circuit breakers, time-locks on critical operations, multi-signature requirements for large transactions, Trusted Execution Environments (Phala Network), sandboxed code execution with syscall filtering, network restrictions, and rate limiting. The defensive posture must be paranoid-level rigorous as attackers achieve profitability at $6,000 exploit values while defenders require $60,000 to break even, creating fundamental economic asymmetry favoring attacks.

Scalability and infrastructure requirements create bottlenecks. Ethereum's ~30 million gas per block, 12-15 second block times, high fees during congestion, and 15-30 TPS throughput cannot support ML model inference directly. Solutions include Layer 2 networks (Arbitrum/Optimism rollups reducing costs 10-100x, Base with native agent support, Polygon sidechains), off-chain computation with on-chain verification, and hybrid architectures. Infrastructure requirements include RPC nodes (Alchemy, Infura, NOWNodes), oracle networks (Chainlink, Pyth, API3), decentralized storage (IPFS for model weights), GPU clusters for ML inference, and 24/7 monitoring with low latency and high reliability. Operational costs range from RPC calls ($0-$500+/month), compute ($100-$10,000+/month for GPU instances), to highly variable gas fees ($1-$1,000+ per complex transaction).

Current performance benchmarks show zkML proving 18-million parameter models in 50 seconds on powerful AWS instances, Internet Computer Protocol achieving 10X+ improvements with Cyclotron optimization for on-chain image classification, and Bittensor operating 80+ active subnets with validators evaluating ML models. Future developments include hardware acceleration through specialized ASIC chips for ZK proof generation, GPU subnets in ICP for on-chain ML, improved account abstraction, cross-chain messaging protocols (LayerZero, Wormhole), and emerging standards like Model Context Protocol for agent interoperability. The technical maturity is advancing rapidly, with production systems like Gauntlet proving billion-dollar TVL viability, though limitations remain around large language model size, zkML latency, and gas costs for frequent operations.

Real-world implementations: What's actually working today

SingularityDAO demonstrates AI-managed portfolio performance with quantifiable results. The platform's DynaSets—dynamically managed asset baskets automatically rebalanced by AI—achieved 25% ROI in two months (October-November 2022) through adaptive multi-strategy market-making, and 20% ROI for weekly and bi-weekly strategy evaluation of BTC+ETH portfolios, with weighted fund allocation delivering higher returns than fixed allocation. Technical architecture includes backtesting on 7 days of historical market data, predictive strategies based on social media sentiment, algorithmic trading agents for liquidity provision, and active portfolio management including portfolio planning, balancing, and trading. The Risk Engine evaluates numerous risks for optimal decision-making, with the Dynamic Asset Manager conducting AI-based automated rebalancing. Currently three active DynaSets operate (dynBTC, dynETH, dynDYDX) managing live capital with transparent on-chain performance.

Virtuals Protocol ($1.8 billion market cap) leads AI agent tokenization with 17,000+ agents launched on the platform as of early 2025. Each agent receives 1 billion tokens minted, generates revenue through "inference fees" from chat interactions, and grants governance rights to token holders. Notable agents include Luna (LUNA) with $69 million market cap—a virtual K-pop star and live streamer with 1 million TikTok followers generating revenue through entertainment; AIXBT at $0.21—providing AI-driven market insights with 240,000+ Twitter followers and staking mechanisms; and VaderAI (VADER) at $0.05—offering AI monetization tools and DAO governance. The GAME Framework (Generative Autonomous Multimodal Entities) provides technical foundation, while the Agent Commerce Protocol creates open standards for agent-to-agent commerce with Immutable Contribution Vault (ICV) maintaining historical ledgers of approved contributions. Partnerships with Illuvium integrate AI agents into gaming ecosystems, and security audits addressed 7 issues (3 medium, 4 low severity).

ai16z operates as an autonomous venture fund with $2.3 billion market cap on Solana, building the ELIZA framework—the most widely adopted open-source modular architecture for AI agents with thousands of deployments. The platform enables decentralized, collaborative development with plugin ecosystems driving network effects: more developers create more plugins, attracting more developers. A trust marketplace system addresses autonomous agent accountability, while plans for a dedicated blockchain specifically for AI agents demonstrate long-term infrastructure vision. The fund operates with defined expiration (October 2025) and $22+ million locked, demonstrating time-bound autonomous capital management.

Gauntlet's production infrastructure manages $1+ billion in DeFi protocol TVL through continuous simulation and optimization. The platform monitors 100+ DeFi protocols with real-time risk assessment, conducts agent-based simulations for protocol behavior under stress, and provides dynamic parameter adjustments for collateral ratios, liquidation thresholds, interest rate curves, fee structures, and incentive programs. Major protocol partnerships include Aave (4-year engagement ended 2024 due to governance disagreements), Compound (pioneering automated governance implementation), Uniswap (liquidity and incentive optimization), Morpho (current vault curation partnership), and Seamless Protocol (active risk monitoring). The vault curation framework includes market analysis monitoring emerging yield opportunities, risk assessment evaluating liquidity and smart contract risk, strategy design creating optimal allocations, automated execution to MetaMorpho vaults, and continuous optimization through real-time rebalancing. Performance metrics demonstrate the platform's update frequency (6 times daily), data volume (400+ million points across 12+ blockchains), and methodology sophistication (Value-at-Risk capturing broad market downturns, broken correlation risks like LST divergence and stablecoin depegs, and tail risk quantification).

Autonomous trading bots show mixed but improving results. Gunbot users report starting with $496 USD on February 26 and growing to $1,358 USD (+174%) running on 20 pairs on dYdX with self-hosted execution eliminating third-party risk. Cryptohopper users achieved 35% annual returns in volatile markets through 24/7 cloud-based automated trading with AI-powered strategy optimization and social trading features. However, overall statistics reveal 75-89% of bot customers lose funds with only 11-25% earning profits, highlighting risks from over-optimization (curve-fitting to historical data), market volatility and black swan events, technical glitches (API failures, connectivity issues), and improper user configuration. Major failures include Banana Gun exploit (September 2024, 563 ETH/$1.9 million loss via oracle vulnerability), Genesis creditor social engineering attack (August 2024, $243 million loss), and Dogwifhat slippage incident (January 2024, $5.7 million loss in thin order books).

Fetch.ai enables autonomous economic agents with 30,000+ active agents as of 2024 using the uAgents framework. Applications include transportation booking automation, smart energy trading (buying off-peak electricity, reselling excess), supply chain optimization through agent-based negotiations, and partnerships with Bosch (Web3 mobility use cases) and Yoti (identity verification for agents). The platform raised $40 million in 2023, positioning within the autonomous AI market projected to reach $70.53 billion by 2030 (42.8% CAGR). DeFi applications announced in 2023 include agent-based trading tools for DEXs eliminating liquidity pools in favor of agent-based matchmaking, enabling direct peer-to-peer trading removing honeypot and rugpull risks.

DAO implementations with AI components demonstrate governance evolution. The AI DAO operates Nexus EVM-based DAO management on XRP EVM sidechain with AI voting irregularity detection ensuring fair decision-making, governance assistance where AI helps decisions while humans maintain oversight, and an AI Agent Launchpad with decentralized MCP node networks enabling agents to manage wallets and transact across Axelar blockchains. Aragon's framework envisions six-tiered AI x DAO integration: AI bots and assistants (current), AI at the edge voting on proposals (near-term), AI at the center managing treasury (medium-term), AI connectors creating swarm intelligence between DAOs (medium-term), DAOs governing AI as public good (long-term), and AI becoming the DAO with on-chain treasury ownership (future). Technical implementation uses Aragon OSx modular plugin system with permission management allowing AI to trade below dollar thresholds while triggering votes above, and ability to switch AI trading strategies by revoking/granting plugin permissions.

Market data confirms rapid adoption and scale. The DeFAI market reached ~$1 billion market cap in January 2025, with AI agent markets peaking at $17 billion. DeFi total value locked stands at $52 billion (institutional TVL: $42 billion), while MetaMask serves 30 million users with 21 million monthly active. Blockchain spending reached $19 billion in 2024 with projections to $1,076 billion by 2026. The global DeFi market of $20.48-32.36 billion (2024-2025) projects growth to $231-441 billion by 2030 and $1,558 billion by 2034, representing 40-54% CAGR. Platform-specific metrics include Virtuals Protocol with 17,000+ AI agents launched, Fetch.ai Burrito integration onboarding 400,000+ users, and autonomous trading bots like SMARD surpassing Bitcoin by \u003e200% and Ethereum by \u003e300% in profitability from start of 2022.

Lessons from successes and failures clarify what works. Successful implementations share common patterns: specialized agents outperform generalists (Griffain's multi-agent collaboration more reliable than single AI), human-in-the-loop oversight proves critical for unexpected events, self-custody designs eliminate counterparty risk, comprehensive backtesting across multiple market regimes prevents over-optimization, and robust risk management with position sizing rules and stop-loss mechanisms prevents catastrophic losses. Failures demonstrate that black box AI lacking transparency fails to build trust, pure autonomy currently cannot handle market complexity and black swan events, ignoring security leads to exploits, and unrealistic promises of "guaranteed returns" indicate fraudulent schemes. The technology works best as human-AI symbiosis where AI handles speed and execution while humans provide strategy and judgment.

The broader ecosystem: Players, competition, and challenges

The autonomous capital ecosystem has rapidly expanded beyond the five profiled thought leaders to encompass major platforms, institutional players, competing philosophical approaches, and sophisticated regulatory challenges. Virtuals Protocol and ai16z represent the "Cathedral vs. Bazaar" philosophical divide. Virtuals ($1.8B market cap) takes a centralized, methodical approach with structured governance and quality-controlled professional marketplaces, co-founded by EtherMage and utilizing Immutable Contribution Vaults for transparent attribution. ai16z ($2.3B market cap) embraces decentralized, collaborative development through open-source ELIZA framework enabling rapid experimentation, led by Shaw (self-taught programmer) building dedicated blockchain for AI agents with trust marketplaces for accountability. This philosophical tension—precision versus innovation, control versus experimentation—mirrors historical software development debates and will likely persist as the ecosystem matures.

Major protocols and infrastructure providers include SingularityNET operating decentralized AI marketplaces enabling developers to monetize AI models with crowdsourced investment decision-making (Numerai hedge fund model), Fetch.ai deploying autonomous agents for transportation and service streamlining with $10 million accelerator for AI agent startups, Autonolas bridging offchain AI agents to onchain protocols creating permissionless application marketplaces, ChainGPT developing AI Virtual Machine (AIVM) for Web3 with automated liquidity management and trading execution, and Warden Protocol building Layer-1 blockchain for AI-integrated applications where smart contracts access and verify AI model outputs onchain with partnerships including Messari, Venice, and Hyperlane.

Institutional adoption accelerates despite caution. Galaxy Digital pivots from crypto mining to AI infrastructure with $175 million venture fund and $4.5 billion revenue expected from 15-year CoreWeave deal providing 200MW data center capacity. Major financial institutions experiment with agentic AI: JPMorgan Chase's LAW (Legal Agentic Workflows) achieves 92.9% accuracy, BNY implements autonomous coding and payment validation, while Mastercard, PayPal, and Visa pursue agentic commerce initiatives. Research and analysis firms including Messari, CB Insights (tracking 1,400+ tech markets), Deloitte, McKinsey, and S\u0026P Global Ratings provide critical ecosystem intelligence on autonomous agents, AI-crypto intersection, enterprise adoption, and risk assessment.

Competing visions manifest across multiple dimensions. Business model variations include token-based DAOs with transparent community voting (MakerDAO, MolochDAO) facing challenges from token concentration where less than 1% of holders control 90% of voting power, equity-based DAOs resembling corporate structures with blockchain transparency, and hybrid models combining token liquidity with ownership stakes balancing community engagement against investor returns. Regulatory compliance approaches range from proactive compliance seeking clarity upfront, regulatory arbitrage operating in lighter-touch jurisdictions, to wait-and-see strategies building first and addressing regulation later. These strategic choices create fragmentation and competitive dynamics as projects optimize for different constraints.

The regulatory landscape grows increasingly complex and constraining. United States developments include SEC Crypto Task Force led by Commissioner Hester Pierce, AI and crypto regulation as 2025 examination priority, President's Working Group on Digital Assets (60-day review, 180-day recommendations), David Sacks appointed Special Advisor for AI and Crypto, and SAB 121 rescinded easing custody requirements for banks. Key SEC concerns include securities classification under Howey Test, Investment Advisers Act applicability to AI agents, custody and fiduciary responsibility, and AML/KYC requirements. CFTC Acting Chairwoman Pham supports responsible innovation while focusing on commodities markets and derivatives. State regulations show innovation with Wyoming first recognizing DAOs as legal entities (July 2021) and New Hampshire entertaining DAO legislation, while New York DFS issued cybersecurity guidance for AI risks (October 2024).

European Union MiCA regulation creates comprehensive framework with implementation timeline: June 2023 entered force, June 30, 2024 stablecoin provisions applied, December 30, 2024 full application for Crypto Asset Service Providers with 18-month transition for existing providers. Key requirements include mandatory whitepapers for token issuers, capital adequacy and governance structures, AML/KYC compliance, custody and reserve requirements for stablecoins, Travel Rule transaction traceability, and passporting rights across EU for licensed providers. Current challenges include France, Austria, and Italy calling for stronger enforcement (September 2025), uneven implementation across member states, regulatory arbitrage concerns, overlap with PSD2/PSD3 payment regulations, and restrictions on non-MiCA compliant stablecoins. DORA (Digital Operational Resilience Act) applicable January 17, 2025 adds comprehensive operational resilience frameworks and mandatory cybersecurity measures.

Market dynamics demonstrate both euphoria and caution. 2024 venture capital activity saw $8 billion invested in crypto across first three quarters (flat versus 2023), with Q3 2024 showing $2.4 billion across 478 deals (-20% QoQ), but AI x Crypto projects receiving $270 million in Q3 (5x increase from Q2). Seed-stage AI autonomous agents attracted $700 million in 2024-2025, with median pre-money valuations reaching record $25 million and average deal sizes of $3.5 million. 2025 Q1 saw $80.1 billion raised (28% QoQ increase driven by $40 billion OpenAI deal), with AI representing 74% of IT sector investment despite declining deal volumes. Geographic distribution shows U.S. dominating with 56% of capital and 44% of deals, Asia growth in Japan (+2%), India (+1%), South Korea (+1%), and China declining -33% YoY.

Valuations reveal disconnects from fundamentals. Top AI agent tokens including Virtuals Protocol (up 35,000% YoY to $1.8B), ai16z (+176% in one week to $2.3B), AIXBT (~$500M), and Binance futures listings for Zerebro and Griffain demonstrate speculative fervor. High volatility with flash crashes wiping $500 million in leveraged positions in single weeks, rapid token launches via platforms like pump.fun, and "AI agent memecoins" as distinct category suggest bubble characteristics. Traditional VC concerns focus on crypto trading at ~250x price-to-sales versus Nasdaq 6.25x and S\u0026P 3.36x, institutional allocators remaining cautious post-2022 collapses, and "revenue meta" emerging requiring proven business models.

Criticisms cluster around five major areas. Technical and security concerns include wallet infrastructure vulnerabilities with most DeFi platforms requiring manual approvals creating catastrophic risks, algorithmic failures like Terra/Luna $2 billion liquidation, infinite feedback loops between agents, cascading multi-agent system failures, data quality and bias issues perpetuating discrimination, and manipulation vulnerabilities through poisoned training data. Governance and accountability issues manifest through token concentration defeating decentralization (less than 1% controlling 90% voting power), inactive shareholders disrupting functionality, susceptibility to hostile takeovers (Build Finance DAO drained 2022), accountability gaps about liability for agent harm, explainability challenges, and "rogue agents" exploiting programming loopholes.

Market and economic criticisms focus on valuation disconnect with crypto's 250x P/S versus traditional 6-7x, bubble concerns resembling ICO boom/bust cycles, many agents as "glorified chatbots," speculation-driven rather than utility-driven adoption, limited practical utility with most agents currently simple Twitter influencers, cross-chain interoperability poor, and fragmented agentic frameworks impeding adoption. Systemic and societal risks include Big Tech concentration with heavy reliance on Microsoft/OpenAI/cloud services (CrowdStrike outage July 2024 highlighted interdependencies), 63% of AI models using public cloud for training reducing competition, significant energy consumption for model training, 92 million jobs displaced by 2030 despite 170 million new jobs projected, and financial crime risks from AML/KYC challenges with autonomous agents enabling automated money laundering.

The "Gen AI paradox" captures deployment challenges: 79% enterprise adoption but 78% report no significant bottom-line impact. MIT reports 95% of AI pilots fail due to poor data preparation and lack of feedback loops. Integration with legacy systems ranks as top challenge for 60% of organizations, requiring security frameworks from day one, change management and AI literacy training, and cultural shifts from human-centric to AI-collaborative models. These practical barriers explain why institutional enthusiasm hasn't translated to corresponding financial returns, suggesting the ecosystem remains in experimental early stages despite rapid market capitalization growth.

Practical implications for finance, investment, and business

Autonomous capital transforms traditional finance through immediate productivity gains and strategic repositioning. Financial services see AI agents executing trades 126% faster with real-time portfolio optimization, fraud detection through real-time anomaly detection and proactive risk assessment, 68% of customer interactions expected AI-handled by 2028, credit assessment using continuous evaluation with real-time transaction data and behavioral trends, and compliance automation conducting dynamic risk assessments and regulatory reporting. Transformation metrics show 70% of financial services executives anticipating agentic AI for personalized experiences, revenue increases of 3-15% for AI implementers, 10-20% boost in sales ROI, 90% observing more efficient workflows, and 38% of employees reporting facilitated creativity.

Venture capital undergoes thesis evolution from pure infrastructure plays to application-specific infrastructure, focusing on demand, distribution, and revenue rather than pre-launch tokens. Major opportunities emerge in stablecoins post-regulatory clarity, energy x DePIN feeding AI infrastructure, and GPU marketplaces for compute resources. Due diligence requirements expand dramatically: assessing technical architecture (Level 1-5 autonomy), governance and ethics frameworks, security posture and audit trails, regulatory compliance roadmap, token economics and distribution analysis, and team ability navigating regulatory uncertainty. Risk factors include 95% of AI pilots failing (MIT report), poor data preparation and lack of feedback loops as leading causes, vendor dependence for firms without in-house expertise, and valuation multiples disconnected from fundamentals.

Business models multiply as autonomous capital enables innovation previously impossible. Autonomous investment vehicles pool capital through DAOs for algorithmic deployment with profit-sharing proportional to contributions (ai16z hedge fund model). AI-as-a-Service (AIaaS) sells tokenized agent capabilities as services with inference fees for chat interactions and fractional ownership of high-value agents. Data monetization creates decentralized data marketplaces with tokenization enabling secure sharing using privacy-preserving techniques like zero-knowledge proofs. Automated market making provides liquidity provision and optimization with dynamic interest rates based on supply/demand and cross-chain arbitrage. Compliance-as-a-Service offers automated AML/KYC checks, real-time regulatory reporting, and smart contract auditing.

Business model risks include regulatory classification uncertainty, consumer protection liability, platform dependencies, network effects favoring first movers, and token velocity problems. Yet successful implementations demonstrate viability: Gauntlet managing $1+ billion TVL through simulation-driven risk management, SingularityDAO delivering 25% ROI through AI-managed portfolios, and Virtuals Protocol launching 17,000+ agents with revenue-generating entertainment and analysis products.

Traditional industries undergo automation across sectors. Healthcare deploys AI agents for diagnostics (FDA approved 223 AI-enabled medical devices in 2023, up from 6 in 2015), patient treatment optimization, and administrative automation. Transportation sees Waymo conducting 150,000+ autonomous rides weekly and Baidu Apollo Go serving multiple Chinese cities with autonomous driving systems improving 67.3% YoY. Supply chain and logistics benefit from real-time route optimization, inventory management automation, and supplier coordination. Legal and professional services adopt document processing and contract analysis, regulatory compliance monitoring, and due diligence automation.

The workforce transformation creates displacement alongside opportunity. While 92 million jobs face displacement by 2030, projections show 170 million new jobs created requiring different skill sets. The challenge lies in transition—retraining programs, safety nets, and education reforms must accelerate to prevent mass unemployment and social disruption. Early evidence shows U.S. AI jobs in Q1 2025 reaching 35,445 positions (+25.2% YoY) with median $156,998 salaries and AI job listing mentions increasing 114.8% (2023) then 120.6% (2024). Yet this growth concentrates in technical roles, leaving questions about broader economic inclusion unanswered.

Risks require comprehensive mitigation strategies across five categories. Technical risks (smart contract vulnerabilities, oracle failures, cascading errors) demand continuous red team testing, formal verification, circuit breakers, insurance protocols like Nexus Mutual, and gradual rollout with limited autonomy initially. Regulatory risks (unclear legal status, retroactive enforcement, jurisdictional conflicts) require proactive regulator engagement, clear disclosure and whitepapers, robust KYC/AML frameworks, legal entity planning (Wyoming DAO LLC), and geographic diversification. Operational risks (data poisoning, model drift, integration failures) necessitate human-in-the-loop oversight for critical decisions, continuous monitoring and retraining, phased integration, fallback systems and redundancy, and comprehensive agent registries tracking ownership and exposure.

Market risks (bubble dynamics, liquidity crises, token concentration, valuation collapse) need focus on fundamental value creation versus speculation, diversified token distribution, lockup periods and vesting schedules, treasury management best practices, and transparent communication about limitations. Systemic risks (Big Tech concentration, network failures, financial contagion) demand multi-cloud strategies, decentralized infrastructure (edge AI, local models), stress testing and scenario planning, regulatory coordination across jurisdictions, and industry consortiums for standards development.

Adoption timelines suggest measured optimism for near-term, transformational potential for long-term. Near-term 2025-2027 sees Level 1-2 autonomy with rule-based automation and workflow optimization maintaining human oversight, 25% of companies using generative AI launching agentic pilots in 2025 (Deloitte) growing to 50% by 2027, autonomous AI agents market reaching $6.8 billion (2024) expanding to $20+ billion (2027), and 15% of work decisions made autonomously by 2028 (Gartner). Adoption barriers include unclear use cases and ROI (60% cite this), legacy system integration challenges, risk and compliance concerns, and talent shortages.

Mid-term 2028-2030 brings Level 3-4 autonomy with agents operating in narrow domains without continuous oversight, multi-agent collaboration systems, real-time adaptive decision-making, and growing trust in agent recommendations. Market projections show generative AI contributing $2.6-4.4 trillion annually to global GDP, autonomous agents market reaching $52.6 billion by 2030 (45% CAGR), 3 hours per day of activities automated (up from 1 hour in 2024), and 68% of customer-vendor interactions AI-handled. Infrastructure developments include agent-specific blockchains (ai16z), cross-chain interoperability standards, unified keystore protocols for permissions, and programmable wallet infrastructure mainstream.

Long-term 2030+ envisions Level 5 autonomy with fully autonomous agents and minimal human intervention, self-improving systems approaching AGI capabilities, agents hiring other agents and humans, and autonomous capital allocation at scale. Systemic transformation features AI agents as co-workers rather than tools, tokenized economy with agent-to-agent transactions, decentralized "Hollywood model" for project coordination, and 170 million new jobs requiring new skill sets. Key uncertainties remain: regulatory framework maturity, public trust and acceptance, technical breakthroughs or limitations in AI, economic disruption management, and ethical alignment and control problems.

Critical success factors for ecosystem development include regulatory clarity enabling innovation while protecting consumers, interoperability standards for cross-chain and cross-platform communication, security infrastructure as baseline with robust testing and audits, talent development through AI literacy programs and workforce transition support, and sustainable economics creating value beyond speculation. Individual projects require real utility solving genuine problems, strong governance with balanced stakeholder representation, technical excellence with security-first design, regulatory strategy with proactive compliance, and community alignment through transparent communication and shared value. Institutional adoption demands proof of ROI beyond efficiency gains, comprehensive risk management frameworks, change management with cultural transformation and training, vendor strategy balancing build versus buy while avoiding lock-in, and ethical guidelines for autonomous decision authority.

The autonomous capital ecosystem represents genuine technological and financial innovation with transformative potential, yet faces significant challenges around security, governance, regulation, and practical utility. The market experiences rapid growth driven by speculation and legitimate development in roughly equal measure, requiring sophisticated understanding, careful navigation, and realistic expectations from all participants as this emerging field matures toward mainstream adoption.

Conclusion: The trajectory of autonomous capital

The autonomous capital revolution is neither inevitable utopia nor dystopian certainty, but rather an emerging field where genuine technological innovation intersects with significant risks, requiring nuanced understanding of capabilities, limitations, and governance challenges. Five key thought leaders profiled here—Tarun Chitra, Amjad Masad, Jordi Alexander, Alexander Pack, and Irene Wu—demonstrate distinct but complementary approaches to building this future: Chitra's automated governance through simulation and risk management, Masad's agent-powered network economies and development infrastructure, Alexander's game theory-informed investment thesis emphasizing human judgment, Pack's infrastructure-focused venture capital strategy, and Wu's omnichain interoperability foundations.

Their collective work establishes that autonomous capital is technically feasible today—demonstrated by Gauntlet managing $1+ billion TVL, SingularityDAO's 25% ROI through AI portfolios, Virtuals Protocol's 17,000+ launched agents, and production trading systems delivering verified results. Yet the "trustless paradox" identified by researchers remains unresolved: deploying AI in trustless blockchain infrastructure avoids trusting fallible humans but creates potentially untrustworthy AI systems operating beyond intervention. This fundamental tension between autonomy and accountability will define whether autonomous capital becomes tool for human flourishing or ungovernable force.

The near-term outlook (2025-2027) suggests cautious experimentation with 25-50% of generative AI users launching agentic pilots, Level 1-2 autonomy maintaining human oversight, market growth from $6.8 billion to $20+ billion, but persistent adoption barriers around unclear ROI, legacy integration challenges, and regulatory uncertainty. The mid-term (2028-2030) could see Level 3-4 autonomy operating in narrow domains, multi-agent systems coordinating autonomously, and generative AI contributing $2.6-4.4 trillion to global GDP if technical and governance challenges resolve successfully. Long-term (2030+) visions of Level 5 autonomy with fully self-improving systems managing capital at scale remain speculative, contingent on breakthroughs in AI capabilities, regulatory frameworks, security infrastructure, and society's ability to manage workforce transitions.

Critical open questions determine outcomes: Will regulatory clarity enable or constrain innovation? Can security infrastructure mature fast enough to prevent catastrophic failures? Will decentralization goals materialize or will Big Tech concentration increase? Can sustainable business models emerge beyond speculation? How will society manage 92 million displaced jobs even as 170 million new positions emerge? These questions lack definitive answers today, making the autonomous capital ecosystem high-risk and high-opportunity simultaneously.

The five thought leaders' perspectives converge on key principles: human-AI symbiosis outperforms pure autonomy, with AI handling execution speed and data analysis while humans provide strategic judgment and values alignment; security and risk management require paranoid-level rigor as attackers hold fundamental economic advantages over defenders; interoperability and standardization will determine which platforms achieve network effects and long-term dominance; regulatory engagement must be proactive rather than reactive as legal frameworks evolve globally; and focus on fundamental value creation rather than speculation separates sustainable projects from bubble casualties.

For participants across the ecosystem, strategic recommendations differ by role. Investors should diversify exposure across platform, application, and infrastructure layers while focusing on revenue-generating models and regulatory posture, planning for extreme volatility, and sizing positions accordingly. Developers must choose architectural philosophies (Cathedral versus Bazaar), invest heavily in security audits and formal verification, build for cross-chain interoperability, engage regulators early, and solve actual problems rather than creating "glorified chatbots." Enterprises should start with low-risk pilots in customer service and analytics, invest in agent-ready infrastructure and data, establish clear governance for autonomous decision authority, train workforce in AI literacy, and balance innovation with control.

Policymakers face perhaps the most complex challenge: harmonizing regulation internationally while enabling innovation, using sandbox approaches and safe harbors for experimentation, protecting consumers through mandatory disclosures and fraud prevention, addressing systemic risks from Big Tech concentration and network dependencies, and preparing workforce through education programs and transition support for displaced workers. The EU's MiCA regulation provides a model balancing innovation with protection, though enforcement challenges and jurisdictional arbitrage concerns remain.

The most realistic assessment suggests autonomous capital will evolve gradually rather than revolutionary overnight, with narrow-domain successes (trading, customer service, analytics) preceding general-purpose autonomy, hybrid human-AI systems outperforming pure automation for the foreseeable future, and regulatory frameworks taking years to crystallize creating ongoing uncertainty. Market shake-outs and failures are inevitable given speculative dynamics, technological limitations, and security vulnerabilities, yet the underlying technological trends—AI capability improvements, blockchain maturation, and institutional adoption of both—point toward continued growth and sophistication.

Autonomous capital represents a legitimate technological paradigm shift with potential to democratize access to sophisticated financial tools, increase market efficiency through 24/7 autonomous optimization, enable new business models impossible in traditional finance, and create machine-to-machine economies operating at superhuman speeds. Yet it also risks concentrating power in hands of technical elites controlling critical infrastructure, creating systemic instabilities through interconnected autonomous systems, displacing human workers faster than retraining programs can adapt, and enabling financial crimes at machine scale through automated money laundering and fraud.

The outcome depends on choices made today by builders, investors, policymakers, and users. The five thought leaders profiled demonstrate that thoughtful, rigorous approaches prioritizing security, transparency, human oversight, and ethical governance can create genuine value while managing risks. Their work provides blueprints for responsible development: Chitra's scientific rigor through simulation, Masad's user-centric infrastructure, Alexander's game-theoretic risk assessment, Pack's infrastructure-first investing, and Wu's interoperability foundations.

As Jordi Alexander emphasized: "Judgment is the ability to integrate complex information and make optimal decisions—this is precisely where machines fall short." The future of autonomous capital will likely be defined not by full AI autonomy, but by sophisticated collaboration where AI handles execution, data processing, and optimization while humans provide judgment, strategy, ethics, and accountability. This human-AI partnership, enabled by crypto's trustless infrastructure and programmable money, represents the most promising path forward—balancing innovation with responsibility, efficiency with security, and autonomy with alignment to human values.

From Apps to Assets: Fintech’s Leap into Crypto

· 37 min read
Dora Noda
Software Engineer

Traditional fintech applications have fundamentally transformed from consumer-facing services into critical infrastructure for the global crypto economy, with five major platforms collectively serving over 700 million users and processing hundreds of billions in crypto transactions annually. This shift from apps to assets represents not merely product expansion but a wholesale reimagining of financial infrastructure, where blockchain technology becomes the foundational layer rather than an adjacent feature. Robinhood, Revolut, PayPal, Kalshi, and CoinGecko are executing parallel strategies that converge on a singular vision: crypto as essential financial infrastructure, not an alternative asset class.

The transformation gained decisive momentum in 2024-2025 as regulatory clarity emerged through Europe's MiCA framework and the U.S. GENIUS Act for stablecoins, institutional adoption accelerated through Bitcoin ETFs managing billions in assets, and fintech companies achieved technological maturity enabling seamless crypto integration. These platforms now collectively represent the bridge between 400 million traditional finance users and the decentralized digital economy, each addressing distinct aspects of the same fundamental challenge: making crypto accessible, useful, and trustworthy for mainstream audiences.

The regulatory breakthrough that enabled scale

The period from 2024-2025 marked a decisive shift in the regulatory environment that had constrained fintech crypto ambitions for years. Johann Kerbrat, General Manager of Robinhood Crypto, captured the industry's frustration: "We received our Wells notice recently. For me, the main takeaway is the need for regulatory clarity in the U.S. regarding what are securities and what are cryptocurrencies. We've met with the SEC 16 times to try to register." Yet despite this uncertainty, companies pressed forward with compliance-first strategies that ultimately positioned them to capitalize when clarity arrived.

The European Union's Markets in Crypto-Assets regulation provided the first comprehensive framework, enabling Revolut to launch crypto services across 30 European Economic Area countries and Robinhood to expand through its $200 million Bitstamp acquisition in June 2025. Mazen ElJundi, Global Business Head of Crypto at Revolut, acknowledged: "The MiCA framework has a lot of pros and cons. It is not perfect, but it has merit to actually exist, and it helps companies like ours to understand what we can offer to customers." This pragmatic acceptance of imperfect regulation over regulatory vacuum became the industry consensus.

In the United States, multiple breakthrough moments converged. Kalshi's victory over the CFTC in its lawsuit regarding political prediction markets established federal jurisdiction over event contracts, with the regulatory agency dropping its appeal in May 2025. John Wang, Kalshi's 23-year-old Head of Crypto appointed in August 2025, declared: "Prediction markets and event contracts are now being held at the same level as normal derivatives and stocks—this is genuinely like the new world's newest asset class." The Trump administration's establishment of a U.S. Federal Strategic Bitcoin Reserve through Executive Order in March 2025 and the passage of the GENIUS Act providing a regulated pathway for stablecoins created an environment where fintech companies could finally build with confidence.

PayPal epitomized the compliance-first approach by becoming one of the first companies to receive a full BitLicense from New York's Department of Financial Services in June 2022, years before launching its PayPal USD stablecoin in August 2023. May Zabaneh, Vice President of Product for Blockchain, Crypto, and Digital Currencies at PayPal, explained the strategy: "PayPal chose to become fully licensed because it was the best way forward to offer cryptocurrency services to its users, given the robust framework provided by the NYDFS for such services." This regulatory groundwork enabled PayPal to move swiftly when the SEC closed its PYUSD investigation without action in 2025, removing the final uncertainty barrier.

The regulatory transformation enabled not just permissionless innovation but coordinated infrastructure development across traditional and crypto-native systems. Robinhood's Johann Kerbrat noted the practical impact: "My goal is to make sure that we can work no matter which side is winning in November. I'm hopeful that it's been clear at this point that we need regulation, otherwise we're going to be late compared to the EU and other places in Asia." By late 2025, fintech platforms had collectively secured over 100 licenses across global jurisdictions, transforming from regulatory supplicants to trusted partners in shaping crypto's integration into mainstream finance.

Stablecoins emerge as the killer application for payments

The convergence of fintech platforms on stablecoins as core infrastructure represents perhaps the clearest signal of crypto's evolution from speculation to utility. May Zabaneh articulated the industry consensus: "For years, stablecoins have been deemed crypto's 'killer app' by combining the power of the blockchain with the stability of fiat currency." By 2025, this theoretical promise became operational reality as stablecoin circulation doubled to $250 billion within 18 months, with McKinsey forecasting $2 trillion by 2028.

PayPal's PayPal USD stablecoin exemplifies the strategic pivot from crypto as tradable asset to crypto as payment infrastructure. Launched in August 2023 and now deployed across Ethereum, Solana, Stellar, and Arbitrum blockchains, PYUSD reached $894 million in circulation by mid-2025 despite representing less than 1% of the total stablecoin market dominated by Tether and Circle. The significance lies not in market share but in use case: PayPal used PYUSD to pay EY invoices in October 2024, demonstrating real-world utility within traditional business operations. The company's July 2025 "Pay with Crypto" merchant solution, accepting 100+ cryptocurrencies but converting everything to PYUSD before settlement, reveals the strategic vision—stablecoins as the settlement layer bridging volatile crypto and traditional commerce.

Zabaneh emphasized the payments transformation: "As we see cross-border payments being a key area where digital currencies can provide real world value, working with Stellar will help advance the use of this technology and provide benefits for all users." The expansion to Stellar specifically targets remittances and cross-border payments, where traditional rails charge 3% on a $200 trillion global market. PayPal's merchant solution reduces cross-border transaction fees by 90% compared to traditional credit card processing through crypto-stablecoin conversion, offering a 0.99% promotional rate versus the average 1.57% U.S. credit card processing fee.

Both Robinhood and Revolut have signaled stablecoin ambitions, with Bloomberg reporting in September 2024 that both companies were exploring proprietary stablecoin issuance. For Revolut, which already contributes price data to Pyth Network supporting DeFi applications managing $15.2 billion in total value, a stablecoin would complete its transformation into crypto infrastructure provider. Mazen ElJundi framed this evolution: "Our partnership with Pyth is an important milestone in Revolut's journey to modernize finance. As DeFi continues to gain traction, Pyth's position as the backbone of the industry will help Revolut capitalize on this transformation."

The stablecoin strategy reflects deeper insights about crypto adoption. Rather than expecting users to embrace volatile assets, these platforms recognized that crypto's transformative power lies in its rails, not its assets. By maintaining fiat denomination while gaining blockchain benefits—instant settlement, programmability, 24/7 availability, lower costs—stablecoins offer the value proposition that 400 million fintech users actually want: better money movement, not speculative investments. May Zabaneh captured this philosophy: "In order for things to become mainstream, they have to be easily accessible, easily adoptable." Stablecoins, it turns out, are both.

Prediction markets become the trojan horse for sophisticated financial products

Kalshi's explosive growth trajectory—from 3.3% market share in early 2024 to 66% by September 2025, with a single-day record of $260 million in trading volume—demonstrates how prediction markets successfully package complex financial concepts for mainstream audiences. John Wang's appointment as Head of Crypto in August 2025 accelerated the platform's explicit strategy to position prediction markets as the gateway drug for crypto adoption. "I think prediction markets are similar to options that are packaged in the most accessible form possible," Wang explained at Token 2049 Singapore in October 2025. "So I think prediction markets are like the Trojan Horse for people to enter crypto."

The platform's CFTC-regulated status provides a critical competitive advantage over crypto-native competitors like Polymarket, which prepared for U.S. reentry by acquiring QCEX for $112 million. Kalshi's federal regulatory designation as a Designated Contract Market bypasses state gambling restrictions, enabling 50-state access while traditional sportsbooks navigate complex state-by-state licensing. This regulatory arbitrage, combined with crypto payment rails supporting Bitcoin, Solana, USDC, XRP, and Worldcoin deposits, creates a unique position: federally regulated prediction markets with crypto-native infrastructure.

Wang's vision extends beyond simply accepting crypto deposits. The launch of KalshiEco Hub in September 2025, with strategic partnerships on Solana and Base (Coinbase's Layer-2), positions Kalshi as a platform for developers to build sophisticated trading tools, analytics dashboards, and AI agents. "It can range anywhere from pushing data onchain from our API to, in the future, tokenizing Kalshi positions, providing margin and leveraged trading, and building third-party front ends," Wang outlined at Solana APEX. The developer ecosystem already includes tools like Kalshinomics for market analytics and Verso for professional-grade discovery, with Wang committing that Kalshi will integrate with "every major crypto app and exchange" within 12 months.

The Robinhood partnership announced in March 2025 and expanded in August exemplifies the strategic distribution play. By embedding Kalshi's CFTC-regulated prediction markets within Robinhood's app serving 25.2 million funded customers, both companies gain: Robinhood offers differentiated products without navigating gambling regulations, while Kalshi accesses mainstream distribution. The partnership initially focused on NFL and college football markets but expanded to politics, economics, and broader event contracts, with revenue split equally between platforms. Johann Kerbrat noted Robinhood's broader strategy: "We don't really see this distinction between a crypto company and a non-crypto company. Over time, anyone who is basically moving money or anyone who's in financial services is going to be a crypto company."

Kalshi's success validates Wang's thesis that simplified financial derivatives—yes/no questions on real-world events—can democratize sophisticated trading strategies. By removing the complexity of options pricing, Greeks, and contract specifications, prediction markets make probabilistic thinking accessible to retail audiences. Yet beneath this simplicity lies the same risk management, hedging, and market-making infrastructure that supports traditional derivatives markets. Wall Street firms including Susquehanna International Group provide institutional liquidity, while the platform's integration with Zero Hash for crypto processing and LedgerX for clearing demonstrates institutional-grade infrastructure. The platform's $2 billion valuation following its June 2025 Series C led by Paradigm and Sequoia reflects investor conviction that prediction markets represent a genuine new asset class—and crypto provides the ideal infrastructure to scale it globally.

Retail crypto trading matures into multi-asset wealth platforms

Robinhood's transformation from the company that restricted GameStop trading in 2021 to a crypto infrastructure leader generating $358 million in crypto revenue in Q4 2024 alone—representing 700% year-over-year growth—illustrates how retail platforms evolved beyond simple buy/sell functionality. Johann Kerbrat, who joined Robinhood over three years ago after roles at Iron Fish, Airbnb, and Uber, has overseen this maturation into comprehensive crypto-native financial services. "We think that crypto is actually the way for us to rebuild the entire Robinhood in the EU from the ground up, just using blockchain technology," Kerbrat explained at EthCC 2025 in Cannes. "We think that blockchain technology can make things more efficient, faster, and also include more people."

The $200 million Bitstamp acquisition completed in June 2025 marked Robinhood's decisive move into institutional crypto infrastructure. The 14-year-old exchange brought 50+ global licenses, 5,000 institutional clients, 500,000 retail users, and approximately $72 billion in trailing twelve-month trading volume—representing 50% of Robinhood's retail crypto volume. More strategically, Bitstamp provided institutional capabilities including lending, staking, white-label crypto-as-a-service, and API connectivity that position Robinhood to compete beyond retail. "The acquisition of Bitstamp is a major step in growing our crypto business," Kerbrat stated. "Through this strategic combination, we are better positioned to expand our footprint outside of the US and welcome institutional customers to Robinhood."

Yet the most ambitious initiative may be Robinhood's Layer-2 blockchain and stock tokenization program announced in June 2025. The platform plans to tokenize over 200 U.S. stocks and ETFs, including controversial derivatives tied to private company valuations like SpaceX and OpenAI tokens. "For the user, it's very simple; you will be able to tokenize any financial instrument in the future, not just US stocks, but anything," Kerbrat explained. "If you want to change brokers, you won't have to wait multiple days and wonder where your stocks are going; you'll be able to do it in an instant." Built on Arbitrum technology, the Layer-2 aims to provide compliance-ready infrastructure for tokenized assets, integrated seamlessly with Robinhood's existing ecosystem.

This vision extends beyond technical innovation to fundamental business model transformation. When asked about Robinhood's crypto ambitions, Kerbrat increasingly emphasizes technology over trading volumes: "I think this idea of blockchain as fundamental technology is really underexplored." The implication—Robinhood views crypto not as a product category but as the technological foundation for all financial services—represents a profound strategic bet. Rather than offering crypto alongside stocks and options, the company is rebuilding its core infrastructure on blockchain rails, using tokenization to eliminate settlement delays, reduce intermediary costs, and enable 24/7 markets.

The competitive positioning against Coinbase reflects this strategic divergence. While Coinbase offers 260+ cryptocurrencies versus Robinhood's 20+ in the U.S., Robinhood provides integrated multi-asset trading, 24/5 stock trading alongside crypto, lower fees for small trades (approximately 0.55% flat versus Coinbase's tiered structure starting at 0.60% maker/1.20% taker), and cross-asset functionality appealing to hybrid investors. Robinhood's stock quadrupled in 2024 versus Coinbase's 60% gain, suggesting markets reward the diversified fintech super-app model over pure-play crypto exchanges. Kerbrat's user insight validates this approach: "We have investors that are brand new to crypto, and they will just start going from trading one of their stocks to one of the coins, then get slowly into the crypto world. We are also seeing a progression from just holding assets to actually transferring them out using a wallet and getting more into Web3."

Global crypto banking bridges traditional and decentralized finance

Revolut's achievement of 52.5 million users across 48 countries with crypto-related wealth revenue surging 298% to $647 million in 2024 demonstrates how neobanks successfully integrated crypto into comprehensive financial services. Mazen ElJundi, Global Business Head of Crypto, Wealth & Trading, articulated the strategic vision on the Gen C podcast in May 2025: Revolut is "creating a bridge between traditional banking and Web3, driving crypto adoption through education and intuitive user experiences." This bridge manifests through products spanning the spectrum from beginner education to sophisticated trading infrastructure.

The Learn & Earn program, which onboarded over 3 million customers globally with hundreds of thousands joining monthly, exemplifies the education-first approach. Users complete interactive lessons on blockchain protocols including Polkadot, NEAR, Avalanche, and Algorand, receiving crypto rewards worth €5-€15 per course upon passing quizzes. The 11FS Pulse Report named Revolut a "top cryptocurrency star" in 2022 for its "fun and simple approach" to crypto education. ElJundi emphasized the strategic importance: "We're excited to continue our mission of making the complex world of blockchain technology more accessible to everyone. The appetite for educational content on web3 continues to increase at a promising and encouraging rate."

For advanced traders, Revolut X—launched in May 2024 for the UK and expanded to 30 EEA countries by November 2024—provides standalone exchange functionality with 200+ tokens, 0% maker fees, and 0.09% taker fees. The March 2025 mobile app launch extended this professional-grade infrastructure to on-the-go trading, with Leonid Bashlykov, Head of Crypto Exchange Product, reporting: "Tens of thousands of traders actively using the platform in UK; feedback very positive, with many already taking advantage of our near-zero fees, wide range of available assets, and seamless integration with their Revolut accounts." The seamless fiat-to-crypto conversion within Revolut's ecosystem—with no fees or limits for on/off-ramping between Revolut account and Revolut X—eliminates friction that typically impedes crypto adoption.

The partnership with Pyth Network announced in January 2025 signals Revolut's ambition to become crypto infrastructure provider, not merely consumer application. As the first banking data publisher to join Pyth Network, Revolut contributes proprietary digital asset price data to support 500+ real-time feeds securing DeFi applications managing $15.2 billion and handling over $1 trillion in total traded volume across 80+ blockchain ecosystems. ElJundi framed this as strategic positioning: "By working with Pyth to provide our reliable market data to applications, Revolut can influence digital economies by ensuring developers and users have access to the precise, real-time information they need." This data contribution allows Revolut to participate in DeFi infrastructure without capital commitment or active trading—a elegant solution to regulatory constraints on more direct DeFi engagement.

Revolut Ramp, launched in March 2024 through partnership with MetaMask, provides the critical on-ramp connecting Revolut's 52.5 million users to self-custody Web3 experiences. Users can purchase 20+ tokens including ETH, USDC, and SHIB directly into MetaMask wallets using Revolut account balances or Visa/Mastercard, with existing Revolut customers bypassing additional KYC and completing transactions within seconds. ElJundi positioned this as ecosystem play: "We are excited to announce our new crypto product Revolut Ramp, a leading on-ramp solution for the web3 ecosystem. Our on-ramp solution ensures high success rates for transactions done within the Revolut ecosystem and low fees for all customers."

The UK banking license obtained in July 2024 after a three-year application process, combined with Lithuanian banking license from the European Central Bank enabling MiCA-compliant operations, positions Revolut uniquely among crypto-friendly neobanks. Yet significant challenges persist, including €3.5 million fine from Bank of Lithuania in 2025 for AML failures related to crypto transactions and ongoing regulatory pressure on crypto-related banking services. Despite naming Revolut the "most crypto-friendly UK bank" with 38% of UK crypto firms using it for banking services, the company must navigate the perpetual tension between crypto innovation and banking regulation. ElJundi's emphasis on cross-border payments as the most promising crypto use case—"borderless payments represent one of the most promising use cases for cryptocurrency"—reflects pragmatic focus on defensible, regulation-compatible applications rather than pursuing every crypto opportunity.

Data infrastructure becomes the invisible foundation

CoinGecko's evolution from consumer-facing price tracker to enterprise data infrastructure provider processing 677 billion API requests annually reveals how data and analytics became essential plumbing for fintech crypto integration. Bobby Ong, Co-Founder and newly appointed CEO as of August 2025, explained the foundational insight: "We decided to pursue a data site because, quite simply, there's always a need for good quality data." That simple insight, formed when Bitcoin was trading at single-digit prices and Ong was mining his first coins in 2010, now underpins an enterprise serving Consensys, Chainlink, Coinbase, Ledger, Etherscan, Kraken, and Crypto.com.

The independence that followed CoinMarketCap's acquisition by Binance in 2020 became CoinGecko's defining competitive advantage. "The opposite happened, and users turned towards CoinGecko," Ong observed. "This happened because CoinGecko has always remained neutral & independent when giving numbers." This neutrality matters critically for fintech applications requiring unbiased data sources—Robinhood, Revolut, and PayPal cannot rely on data from competitors like Coinbase or exchanges with vested interests in specific tokens. CoinGecko's comprehensive coverage of 18,000+ cryptocurrencies across 1,000+ exchanges, plus 17 million tokens tracked through GeckoTerminal across 1,700 decentralized exchanges, provides fintech platforms the complete market visibility required for product development.

The Chainlink partnership exemplifies CoinGecko's infrastructure role. By providing cryptocurrency market data—price, trading volume, and market capitalization—for Chainlink's decentralized oracle network, CoinGecko enables smart contract developers to access reliable pricing for DeFi applications. "CoinGecko's cryptocurrency market data can now be easily called by smart contract developers when developing decentralized applications," the companies announced. "This data is available for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and over 5,700 coins that are currently being tracked on CoinGecko." This integration eliminates single points of failure by evaluating multiple data sources, maintaining oracle integrity crucial for DeFi protocols handling billions in locked value.

Ong's market insights, shared through quarterly reports, conference presentations including his Token 2049 Singapore keynote in October 2025 titled "Up Next: 1 Billion Tokens, $50 Trillion Market Cap," and his long-running CoinGecko Podcast, provide fintech companies valuable intelligence for strategic planning. His prediction that gaming would be the "dark horse" of crypto adoption—"hundreds of millions of dollars have gone into gaming studios to build web3 games in the past few years. All we need is just one game to become a big hit and suddenly we have millions of new users using crypto"—reflects the data-driven insights accessible to CoinGecko through monitoring token launches, DEX activity, and user behavior patterns across the entire crypto ecosystem.

The leadership transition from COO to CEO in August 2025, with co-founder TM Lee becoming President focused on long-term product vision and R&D, signals CoinGecko's maturation into institutionalized data provider. The appointment of Cedric Chan as CTO with mandate to embed AI into operations and deliver "real-time, high-fidelity crypto data" demonstrates the infrastructure investments required to serve enterprise customers. Ong framed the evolution: "TM and I started CoinGecko with a shared vision to empower the decentralized future. These values will continue to guide us forward." For fintech platforms integrating crypto, CoinGecko's comprehensive, neutral, and reliable data services represent essential infrastructure—the Bloomberg terminal for digital assets that enables everything else to function.

Technical infrastructure enables seamless user experiences

The transformation from crypto as separate functionality to integrated infrastructure required solving complex technical challenges around custody, security, interoperability, and user experience. These fintech platforms collectively invested billions in building the technical rails enabling mainstream crypto adoption, with architecture decisions revealing strategic priorities.

Robinhood's custody infrastructure holding $38 billion in crypto assets as of November 2024 employs industry-standard cold storage for the majority of funds, third-party security audits, and multi-signature protocols. The platform's licensing by New York State Department of Financial Services and FinCEN registration as money services business demonstrates regulatory-grade security. Yet the user experience abstracts this complexity entirely—customers simply see balances and execute trades within seconds. Johann Kerbrat emphasized this principle: "I think what makes us unique is that our UX and UI are pretty innovative. Compared to all the competition, this is probably one of the best UIs out there. I think that's what we want to bring to every product we build. Either the best-in-class type of pricing or the best-in-class UI UX."

The Crypto Trading API launched in May 2024 reveals Robinhood's infrastructure ambitions beyond consumer applications. Providing real-time market data access, programmatic portfolio management, automated trading strategies, and 24/7 crypto market access, the API enables developers to build sophisticated applications atop Robinhood's infrastructure. Combined with Robinhood Legend desktop platform featuring 30+ technical indicators, futures trading, and advanced order types, the company positioned itself as infrastructure provider for crypto power users, not merely retail beginners. The integration of Bitstamp's smart order routing post-acquisition provides institutional-grade execution across multiple liquidity venues.

PayPal's technical approach prioritizes seamless merchant integration over blockchain ideology. The Pay with Crypto solution announced in July 2025 exemplifies this philosophy: customers connect crypto wallets at checkout, PayPal sells cryptocurrency on centralized or decentralized exchanges, converts proceeds to PYUSD, then converts PYUSD to USD for merchant deposit—all happening transparently behind familiar PayPal checkout flow. Merchants receive dollars, not volatile crypto, eliminating the primary barrier to merchant adoption while enabling PayPal to capture transaction fees on what becomes a $3+ trillion addressable market of 650 million global crypto users. May Zabaneh captured the strategic insight: "As with almost anything with payments, consumers and shoppers should be given the choice in how they want to pay."

Revolut's multi-blockchain strategy—Ethereum for DeFi access, Solana for low-cost high-speed transactions, Stellar for cross-border payments—demonstrates sophisticated infrastructure architecture matching specific blockchains to use cases rather than single-chain maximalism. The staking infrastructure supporting Ethereum, Cardano, Polkadot, Solana, Polygon, and Tezos with automated staking for certain tokens reflects the deep integration required to abstract blockchain complexity from users. Over two-thirds of Revolut's Solana holdings in Europe are staked, suggesting users increasingly expect yield generation as default functionality rather than optional feature requiring technical knowledge.

Kalshi's partnership with Zero Hash for all crypto deposit processing—instantly converting Bitcoin, Solana, USDC, XRP, and other cryptocurrencies to USD while maintaining CFTC compliance—illustrates how infrastructure providers enable regulated companies to access crypto rails without becoming crypto custodians themselves. The platform supports $500,000 crypto deposit limits versus lower traditional banking limits, providing power users advantages while maintaining federal regulatory oversight. John Wang's vision for "purely additive" onchain initiatives—pushing event data onto blockchains in real-time, future tokenization of Kalshi positions, permissionless margin trading—suggests infrastructure evolution will continue expanding functionality while preserving the core regulated exchange experience for existing users.

The competitive landscape reveals collaborative infrastructure

The apparent competition between these platforms masks underlying collaboration on shared infrastructure that benefits the entire ecosystem. Kalshi's partnership with Robinhood, Revolut's integration with MetaMask and Pyth Network, PayPal's collaboration with Coinbase for fee-free PYUSD purchases, and CoinGecko's data provision to Chainlink oracles demonstrate how competitive positioning coexists with infrastructure interdependence.

The stablecoin landscape illustrates this dynamic. PayPal's PYUSD competes with Tether's USDT and Circle's USDC for market share, yet all three protocols require the same infrastructure: blockchain networks for settlement, crypto exchanges for liquidity, fiat banking partners for on/off ramps, and regulatory licenses for compliance. When Robinhood announced joining the Global Dollar Network for USDG stablecoin, it simultaneously validated PayPal's stablecoin strategy while creating competitive pressure. Both Robinhood and Revolut exploring proprietary stablecoins according to Bloomberg reporting in September 2024 suggests industry consensus that stablecoin issuance represents essential infrastructure for fintech platforms, not merely product diversification.

The blockchain network partnerships reveal strategic alignment. Kalshi's KalshiEco Hub supports both Solana and Base (Coinbase's Layer-2), Robinhood's Layer-2 builds on Arbitrum technology, PayPal's PYUSD deploys across Ethereum, Solana, Stellar, and Arbitrum, and Revolut integrates Ethereum, Solana, and prepares for Stellar expansion. Rather than fragmenting across incompatible networks, these platforms converge on the same handful of high-performance blockchains, creating network effects that benefit all participants. Bobby Ong's observation that "we're finally seeing DEXes challenge CEXes" following Hyperliquid's rise to 8th largest perpetuals exchange reflects how decentralized infrastructure matures to institutional quality, reducing advantages of centralized intermediaries.

The regulatory advocacy presents similar dynamics. While these companies compete for market share, they share interests in clear frameworks that enable innovation. Johann Kerbrat's statement that "my goal is to make sure that we can work no matter which side is winning in November" reflects industry-wide pragmatism—companies need workable regulation more than they need specific regulatory outcomes. The passage of the GENIUS Act for stablecoins, the Trump administration's establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, and the SEC's closure of investigations into PYUSD without action all resulted from years of collective industry advocacy, not individual company lobbying. May Zabaneh's repeated emphasis that "there has to be some clarity that comes out, some standards, some ideas of the dos and the don'ts and some structure around it" articulates the shared priority that supersedes competitive positioning.

User adoption reveals mainstream crypto's actual use cases

The collective user bases of these platforms—over 700 million accounts across Robinhood, Revolut, PayPal, Venmo, and CoinGecko—provide empirical insights into how mainstream audiences actually use crypto, revealing patterns often divergent from crypto-native assumptions.

PayPal and Venmo's data shows 74% of users who purchased crypto continued holding it over 12 months, suggesting stability-seeking behavior rather than active trading. Over 50% chose Venmo specifically for "safety, security, and ease of use" rather than decentralization or self-custody—the opposite of crypto-native priorities. May Zabaneh's insight that customers want "choice in how they want to pay" manifests in payment functionality, not DeFi yield farming. The automatic "Cash Back to Crypto" feature on Venmo Credit Card reflects how fintech platforms successfully integrate crypto into existing behavioral patterns rather than requiring users to adopt new ones.

Robinhood's observation that users "start going from trading one of their stocks to one of the coins, then get slowly into the crypto world" and show "progression from just holding assets to actually transferring them out using a wallet and getting more into Web3" reveals the onboarding pathway—familiarity with platform precedes crypto experimentation, which eventually leads some users to self-custody and Web3 engagement. Johann Kerbrat's emphasis on this progression validates the strategy of integrating crypto into trusted multi-asset platforms rather than expecting users to adopt crypto-first applications.

Revolut's Learn & Earn program onboarding 3 million users with hundreds of thousands joining monthly demonstrates that education significantly drives adoption when paired with financial incentives. The UK's prohibition of Learn & Earn rewards in September 2023 due to regulatory changes provides natural experiment showing education alone less effective than education plus rewards. Mazen ElJundi's emphasis that "borderless payments represent one of the most promising use cases for cryptocurrency" reflects usage patterns showing cross-border payments and remittances as actual killer apps, not NFTs or DeFi protocols.

Kalshi's user demographics skewing toward "advanced retail investors, like options traders" seeking direct event exposure reveals prediction markets attract sophisticated rather than novice crypto users. The platform's explosive growth from $13 million monthly volume in early 2025 to a single-day record of $260 million in September 2025 (driven by sports betting, particularly NFL) demonstrates how crypto infrastructure enables scaling of financial products addressing clear user demands. John Wang's characterization of the "crypto community as the definition of power users, people who live and breathe new financial markets and frontier technology" acknowledges Kalshi's target audience differs from PayPal's mainstream consumers—different platforms serving different segments of the crypto adoption curve.

Bobby Ong's analysis of meme coin behavior provides contrasting insights: "In the long run, meme coins will probably follow an extreme case of power law, where 99.99% will fail." His observation that "the launch of TRUMPandTRUMP and MELANIA marked the top for meme coins as it sucked liquidity and attention out of all the other cryptocurrencies" reveals how speculative frenzies disrupt productive adoption. Yet meme coin trading represented significant volume across these platforms, suggesting user behavior remains more speculative than infrastructure builders prefer to acknowledge. The divergence between platform strategies emphasizing utility and stablecoins versus user behavior including substantial meme coin trading reflects ongoing tension in crypto's maturation.

The web3 integration challenge reveals philosophical divergence

The approaches these platforms take toward Web3 integration—enabling users to interact with decentralized applications, DeFi protocols, NFT marketplaces, and blockchain-based services—reveal fundamental philosophical differences despite superficial similarity in offering crypto services.

Robinhood's self-custody wallet, downloaded "hundreds of thousands of times in more than 100 countries" and supporting Ethereum, Bitcoin, Solana, Dogecoin, Arbitrum, Polygon, Optimism, and Base networks with cross-chain and gasless swaps, represents full embrace of Web3 infrastructure. The partnership with MetaMask through Robinhood Connect announced in April 2023 positions Robinhood as on-ramp to the broader Web3 ecosystem rather than walled garden. Johann Kerbrat's framing that blockchain technology will "rebuild the entire Robinhood in the EU from the ground up" suggests viewing Web3 as fundamental architecture, not adjacent feature.

PayPal's approach emphasizes utility within PayPal's ecosystem over interoperability with external Web3 applications. While PYUSD functions as standard ERC-20 token on Ethereum, SPL token on Solana, and maintains cross-chain functionality, PayPal's primary use cases—instant payments within PayPal/Venmo, merchant payments at PayPal-accepting merchants, conversion to other PayPal-supported cryptocurrencies—keep activity largely within PayPal's control. The Revolut Ramp partnership with MetaMask providing direct purchases into self-custody wallets represents more genuine Web3 integration, positioning Revolut as infrastructure provider for the open ecosystem. Mazen ElJundi's statement that "Revolut X along with our recent partnership with MetaMask, further consolidates our product offering in the world of Web3" frames integration as strategic priority.

The custody model differences crystallize the philosophical divergence. Robinhood's architecture where "once you purchase crypto on Robinhood, Robinhood believes you're the legal owner of the crypto" but Robinhood maintains custody creates tension with Web3's self-custody ethos. PayPal's custodial model where users cannot withdraw most cryptocurrencies to external wallets (except for specific tokens) prioritizes platform lock-in over user sovereignty. Revolut's model enabling crypto withdrawals of 30+ tokens to external wallets while maintaining staking and other services for platform-held crypto represents middle ground—sovereignty available but not required.

CoinGecko's role highlights infrastructure enabling Web3 without directly participating. By providing comprehensive data on DeFi protocols, DEXes, and token launches—tracking 17 million tokens across GeckoTerminal versus 18,000 more established cryptocurrencies on the main platform—CoinGecko serves Web3 developers and users without building competing products. Bobby Ong's philosophy that "anything that can be tokenized will be tokenized" embraces Web3's expansive vision while maintaining CoinGecko's focused role as neutral data provider.

The NFT integration similarly reveals varying commitment levels. Robinhood has largely avoided NFT functionality beyond basic holdings, focusing on tokenization of traditional securities instead. PayPal has not emphasized NFTs. Revolut integrated NFT data from CoinGecko in June 2023, tracking 2,000+ collections across 30+ marketplaces, though NFTs remain peripheral to Revolut's core offerings. This selective Web3 integration suggests platforms prioritize components with clear utility cases—DeFi for yield, stablecoins for payments, tokenization for securities—while avoiding speculative categories lacking obvious user demand.

The future trajectory points toward embedded finance redefined

The strategic roadmaps these leaders articulated reveal convergent vision for crypto's role in financial services over the next 3-5 years, with blockchain infrastructure becoming invisible foundation rather than explicit product category.

Johann Kerbrat's long-term vision—"We don't really see this distinction between a crypto company and a non-crypto company. Over time, anyone who is basically moving money or anyone who's in financial services is going to be a crypto company"—articulates the endpoint where crypto infrastructure ubiquity eliminates the crypto category itself. Robinhood's stock tokenization initiative, planning to tokenize "any financial instrument in the future, not just US stocks, but anything" with instant broker transfers replacing multi-day settlement, represents this vision operationalized. The Layer-2 blockchain development built on Arbitrum technology for compliance-ready infrastructure suggests 2026-2027 timeframe for these capabilities reaching production.

PayPal's merchant strategy targeting its 20 million business customers for PYUSD integration and expansion of Pay with Crypto beyond U.S. merchants to global rollout positions the company as crypto payment infrastructure at scale. May Zabaneh's emphasis on "payment financing" or PayFi—providing working capital for SMBs with delayed receivables using stablecoin infrastructure—illustrates how blockchain rails enable financial products impractical with traditional infrastructure. CEO Alex Chriss's characterization of PayPal World as "fundamentally reimagining how money moves around the world" by connecting the world's largest digital wallets suggests interoperability across previously siloed payment networks becomes achievable through crypto standards.

Revolut's planned expansion into crypto derivatives (actively recruiting General Manager for crypto derivatives as of June 2025), stablecoin issuance to compete with PYUSD and USDC, and US market crypto service relaunch following regulatory clarity signals multi-year roadmap toward comprehensive crypto banking. Mazen ElJundi's framing of "modernizing finance" through TradFi-DeFi convergence, with Revolut contributing reliable market data to DeFi protocols via Pyth Network while maintaining regulated banking operations, illustrates the bridging role neobanks will play. The investment of $500 million over 3-5 years for US expansion demonstrates capital commitment matching strategic ambition.

Kalshi's 12-month roadmap articulated by John Wang—integration with "every major crypto app and exchange," tokenization of Kalshi positions, permissionless margin trading, and third-party front-end ecosystem—positions prediction markets as composable financial primitive rather than standalone application. Wang's vision that "any generational fintech company of this decade will be powered by crypto" reflects millennial/Gen-Z leadership's assumption that blockchain infrastructure is default rather than alternative. The platform's developer-focused strategy with grants for sophisticated data dashboards, AI agents, and arbitrage tools suggests Kalshi will function as data oracle and settlement layer for prediction market applications, not merely consumer-facing exchange.

Bobby Ong's Token 2049 presentation titled "Up Next: 1 Billion Tokens, $50 Trillion Market Cap" signals CoinGecko's forecast for explosive token proliferation and market value growth over the coming years. His prediction that "the current market cycle is characterized by intense competition among companies to accumulate crypto assets, while the next cycle could escalate to nation-state involvement" following Trump's establishment of Strategic Bitcoin Reserve suggests institutional and sovereign adoption will drive the next phase. The leadership transition positioning Ong as CEO focused on strategic execution while co-founder TM Lee pursues long-term product vision and R&D suggests CoinGecko preparing infrastructure for exponentially larger market than exists today.

Measuring success: The metrics that matter in crypto-fintech integration

The financial performance and operational metrics these platforms disclosed reveal which strategies successfully monetize crypto integration and which remain primarily strategic investments awaiting future returns.

Robinhood's Q4 2024 crypto revenue of $358 million representing 35% of total net revenue ($1.01 billion total) and 700% year-over-year growth demonstrates crypto as material revenue driver, not experimental feature. However, Q1 2025's significant crypto revenue decline followed by Q2 2025 recovery to $160 million (still 98% year-over-year growth) reveals vulnerability to crypto market volatility. CEO Vlad Tenev's acknowledgment of need to diversify beyond crypto dependency led to Gold subscriber growth (3.5 million record), IRA matching, credit cards, and advisory services. The company's adjusted EBITDA of $1.43 billion in 2024 (up 167% year-over-year) and profitable operations demonstrate crypto integration financially sustainable when paired with diversified revenue streams.

Revolut's crypto-related wealth revenue of $647 million in 2024 (298% year-over-year growth) representing significant portion of $4 billion total revenue demonstrates similar materiality. However, crypto's contribution to the $1.4 billion pre-tax profit (149% year-over-year growth) shows crypto functioning as growth driver for profitable core business rather than sustaining unprofitable operations. The 52.5 million global users (38% year-over-year growth) and customer balances of $38 billion (66% year-over-year growth) reveal crypto integration supporting user acquisition and engagement metrics beyond direct crypto revenue. The obtainment of UK banking license in July 2024 after three-year process signals regulatory acceptance of Revolut's integrated crypto-banking model.

PayPal's PYUSD market cap oscillating between $700-894 million through 2025 after peaking at $1.012 billion in August 2024 represents less than 1% of the $229.2 billion total stablecoin market but provides strategic positioning for payments infrastructure play rather than asset accumulation. The $4.1 billion monthly transfer volume (23.84% month-over-month increase) demonstrates growing utility, while 51,942 holders suggests adoption remains early stage. The 4% annual rewards introduced April 2025 through Anchorage Digital partnership directly competes for deposit accounts, positioning PYUSD as yield-bearing cash alternative. PayPal's 432 million active users and $417 billion total payment volume in Q2 2024 (11% year-over-year growth) contextualize crypto as strategic initiative within massive existing business rather than existential transformation.

Kalshi's dramatic trajectory from $13 million monthly volume early 2025 to $260 million single-day record in September 2025, market share growth from 3.3% to 66% overtaking Polymarket, and $2 billion valuation in June 2025 Series C demonstrates prediction markets achieving product-market fit with explosive growth. The platform's 1,220% revenue growth in 2024 and total volume of $1.97 billion (up from $183 million in 2023) validates the business model. However, sustainability beyond election cycles and peak sports seasons remains unproven—August 2025 volume declined before September's NFL-driven resurgence. The 10% of deposits made with crypto suggests crypto infrastructure important but not dominant for user base, with traditional payment rails still primary.

CoinGecko's 677 billion API requests annually and enterprise customers including Consensys, Chainlink, Coinbase, Ledger, and Etherscan demonstrate successful transition from consumer-facing application to infrastructure provider. The company's funding history, including Series B and continued private ownership, suggests profitability or strong unit economics enabling infrastructure investment without quarterly earnings pressure. Bobby Ong's elevation to CEO with mandate for "strategic foresight and operational excellence" signals maturation into institutionalized enterprise rather than founder-led startup.

The verdict: Crypto becomes infrastructure, not destination

The transformation from apps to assets fundamentally represents crypto's absorption into financial infrastructure rather than crypto's replacement of traditional finance. These five companies, collectively serving over 700 million users and processing hundreds of billions in crypto transactions annually, validated that mainstream crypto adoption occurs through familiar platforms adding crypto functionality, not through users adopting crypto-native platforms.

Johann Kerbrat's observation that "anyone who is basically moving money or anyone who's in financial services is going to be a crypto company" proved prescient—by late 2025, the distinction between fintech and crypto companies became semantic rather than substantive. Robinhood tokenizing stocks, PayPal settling merchant payments through stablecoin conversion, Revolut contributing price data to DeFi protocols, Kalshi pushing event data onchain, and CoinGecko providing oracle services to smart contracts all represent crypto infrastructure enabling traditional financial products rather than crypto products replacing traditional finance.

The stablecoin convergence exemplifies this transformation. As McKinsey forecast $2 trillion stablecoin circulation by 2028 from $250 billion in 2025, the use case clarified: stablecoins as payment rails, not stores of value. The blockchain benefits—instant settlement, 24/7 availability, programmability, lower costs—matter for infrastructure while fiat denomination maintains mainstream acceptability. May Zabaneh's articulation that stablecoins represent crypto's "killer app" by "combining the power of the blockchain with the stability of fiat currency" captured the insight that mainstream adoption requires mainstream denominations.

The regulatory breakthrough in 2024-2025 through MiCA, GENIUS Act, and federal court victories for Kalshi created the clarity all leaders identified as prerequisite for mainstream adoption. May Zabaneh's statement that "there has to be some clarity that comes out, some standards, some ideas of the dos and the don'ts" reflected universal sentiment that regulatory certainty mattered more than regulatory favorability. The companies that invested in compliance-first strategies—PayPal's full BitLicense, Robinhood's meeting with SEC 16 times, Kalshi's CFTC litigation, Revolut's UK banking license—positioned themselves to capitalize when clarity arrived.

Yet significant challenges persist. Robinhood's 35% Q4 revenue dependence on crypto followed by Q1 decline demonstrates volatility risk. Revolut's €3.5 million AML fine highlights ongoing compliance challenges. PayPal's PYUSD capturing less than 1% stablecoin market share shows incumbent advantages in crypto markets. Kalshi's sustainability beyond election cycles remains unproven. CoinGecko's challenge competing against exchange-owned data providers with deeper pockets continues. The path from 700 million accounts to mainstream ubiquity requires continued execution, regulatory navigation, and technological innovation.

The ultimate measure of success will not be crypto revenue percentages or token prices but rather crypto's invisibility—when users obtain yield on savings accounts without knowing stablecoins power them, transfer money internationally without recognizing blockchain rails, trade prediction markets without understanding smart contracts, or tokenize assets without comprehending custody architecture. John Wang's vision of prediction markets as "Trojan Horse for crypto," Mazen ElJundi's "bridge between Web2 and Web3," and Bobby Ong's philosophy that "anything that can be tokenized will be tokenized" all point toward the same endpoint: crypto infrastructure so seamlessly integrated into financial services that discussing "crypto" as separate category becomes obsolete. These five leaders, through parallel execution of convergent strategies, are building that future—one API request, one transaction, one user at a time.

U.S. Crypto Policy as Global Catalyst

· 31 min read
Dora Noda
Software Engineer

Bo Hines and Cody Carbone are architecting America's transformation from crypto skeptic to global leader through stablecoin legislation, regulatory clarity, and strategic positioning that extends dollar dominance worldwide. Their complementary visions—Hines executing from the private sector after shaping White House policy, Carbone orchestrating congressional advocacy through The Digital Chamber—reveal how deliberate U.S. policy frameworks will become the template for international crypto adoption. The July 2025 passage of the GENIUS Act, which both champions helped architect, represents not just domestic regulation but a strategic play to ensure dollar-backed stablecoins become global payment infrastructure, reaching billions who currently lack access to digital dollars.

This policy revolution matters because it resolves a decade-long regulatory stalemate. From 2021-2024, unclear U.S. rules drove innovation offshore to Singapore, Dubai, and Europe. Now, with comprehensive frameworks in place, the U.S. is reclaiming leadership at precisely the moment when institutional capital is ready to deploy—71% of institutional investors plan crypto allocations, up from negligible percentages just years ago. The backstory involves Trump's January 2025 executive order establishing crypto as a national priority, the creation of David Sacks' White House Crypto Council where Hines served as executive director, and The Digital Chamber's bipartisan congressional strategy that delivered 68-30 Senate passage of stablecoin legislation.

The broader implication: this isn't just American policy reform but a geopolitical strategy. By establishing clear rules that enable private dollar-backed stablecoins while explicitly banning government-issued CBDCs, the U.S. is positioning digital dollars as the alternative to China's digital yuan and Europe's planned digital euro. Hines and Carbone both predict other nations will adopt U.S. regulatory frameworks as the global standard, accelerating worldwide crypto adoption while maintaining American financial hegemony.

Two architects of crypto's American moment

Bo Hines, at just 30, embodies the political-to-private sector pipeline that now defines crypto leadership. After failing twice in congressional races despite Trump endorsements, he leveraged his law degree and early crypto exposure (first learning about Bitcoin at the 2014 BitPay-sponsored bowl game) into a pivotal White House role. As executive director of the Presidential Council of Advisers on Digital Assets from January to August 2025, he coordinated weekly meetings with SEC, CFTC, Treasury, Commerce, and bank regulators—approximately 200 stakeholder meetings in seven months. His fingerprints are all over the GENIUS Act, which he calls "the first piece of the puzzle" in revolutionizing America's economic state.

Within days of resigning in August 2025, Hines received "well over 50 job offers" before joining Tether as strategic advisor and then CEO of Tether USA in September 2025. This positioned him to launch USAT, the first federally-compliant U.S. stablecoin designed to meet GENIUS Act standards. His political capital—direct Trump connections, regulatory expertise, and policy-crafting experience—makes him uniquely valuable as Tether navigates the new regulatory environment while competing against Circle's established USDC dominance in U.S. markets.

Cody Carbone represents a different archetype: the patient institution-builder who spent years preparing for this moment. With a JD and MPA from Syracuse, plus six years at EY's Office of Public Policy before joining The Digital Chamber, he brings legislative and financial services expertise to crypto advocacy. His April 2025 promotion from Chief Policy Officer to CEO marked a strategic shift from defensive posture to proactive policy development. Under his leadership, The Digital Chamber—the nation's first and largest blockchain trade association with 200+ members spanning miners, exchanges, banks, and Fortune 500 companies—released the comprehensive U.S. Blockchain Roadmap in March 2025.

Carbone's approach emphasizes bipartisan consensus-building over confrontation. He downplayed Democratic opposition to stablecoin legislation, highlighting support from Senators Gillibrand and others, and maintained direct engagement with both parties throughout the process. This pragmatism proved essential: the GENIUS Act passed with 68-30 Senate support, far exceeding the simple majority needed. His stated goal is ensuring "the U.S. leads in blockchain innovation" through "clear, common-sense rules" that don't stifle development.

The stablecoin foundation for dollar dominance

Both executives identify stablecoin legislation as the critical foundation for global crypto adoption, but they articulate complementary rationales. Hines frames it through national economic strategy: "Stablecoins could usher in U.S. dollar dominance for decades to come." His White House experience taught him that archaic payment rails—many unchanged for three decades—needed blockchain-based alternatives to maintain American competitiveness. The GENIUS Act's requirement for 1:1 backing with U.S. dollars, insured bank deposits, or Treasury bills means every stablecoin creates demand for dollar-denominated assets.

Carbone emphasizes the geopolitical dimension. In his view, if Congress wants to "compete with state-controlled digital currencies abroad, the only path is to pass the GENIUS Act and let private stablecoins thrive in the U.S." This positions dollar-backed stablecoins as America's answer to CBDCs without the government surveillance concerns. The Digital Chamber's advocacy highlighted how 98% of existing stablecoins are USD-pegged and over 80% of stablecoin transactions occur outside the U.S.—demonstrating massive untapped global demand for digital dollars.

The legislation's structure reflects careful balance between innovation and oversight. Federal oversight applies to issuers over $10 billion (targeting major players like Circle's USDC at $72 billion), while smaller issuers under $10 billion can choose state regulation if "substantially similar." Monthly public disclosures of reserve composition with executive certification ensure transparency without creating the rigid, bank-like constraints some feared. Both executives note this creates a "first-mover advantage" for U.S. regulatory frameworks that other jurisdictions will emulate.

Treasury Secretary Bessent projected the stablecoin market will exceed $1 trillion "in the next few years" from current $230+ billion levels. Hines believes this conservative: "As tokenization continues to occur, it can be much greater than that." His USAT launch targets becoming the "first federally licensed stablecoin product in the U.S." with Anchorage Digital as issuer and Cantor Fitzgerald as custodian—partnerships that leverage both regulatory compliance and political capital (Cantor's CEO Howard Lutnick serves as Trump's Commerce Secretary).

Carbone sees the institutional adoption pathway clearly. The Digital Chamber's surveys show 84% of institutions are using or considering stablecoins for yield generation (73%), foreign exchange (69%), and cash management (68%). The GENIUS Act removes the regulatory uncertainty that previously blocked deployment of this capital. "For the first time, we have a government that recognizes the strategic importance of digital assets," he stated when promoted to CEO.

Regulatory clarity as the unlock for institutional capital

Both executives emphasize that regulatory uncertainty—not technology limitations—was crypto's primary barrier to mainstream adoption. Hines describes the Biden era as requiring "demolition" of hostile regulations before "construction" of new frameworks could begin. His three-phase White House strategy started with reversing "Operation Chokepoint 2.0" enforcement patterns, dropping SEC lawsuits against Coinbase and Ripple, and hosting the first White House Crypto Summit in March 2025. The construction phase centered on the GENIUS Act and market structure legislation, with implementation focusing on integrating blockchain into financial infrastructure.

The specific regulatory changes both champions highlight reveal what institutional players needed. The January 2025 rescission of SAB 121—which required banks to hold custodied digital assets on their balance sheets—was critical. Carbone called it "low hanging fruit that signaled an immediate shift from the Biden/Gensler era and greenlit financial institutions to enter the market." This enabled BNY Mellon, State Street, and other traditional custodians to offer crypto services without prohibitive capital requirements. The result: 43% of financial institutions now collaborate with crypto custodians, up from 25% in 2021.

Carbone's policy advocacy through The Digital Chamber focused on creating "clear jurisdictional lines between the SEC and CFTC so issuers can plan for clarity who their regulator is." The FIT21 market structure bill, which passed the House 279-136 in May 2024, establishes three asset categories: Restricted Digital Assets under SEC jurisdiction, Digital Commodities under CFTC oversight, and Permitted Payment Stablecoins. A five-step decentralization test determines commodity classification. Senate passage is expected in 2025 following GENIUS Act momentum.

Hines coordinated the interagency process that made this jurisdictional clarity possible. His weekly working group meetings brought together SEC, CFTC, Treasury, Commerce, and bank regulators to ensure "everyone is singing from the same sheet of music." This unprecedented coordination—culminating in the first joint SEC-CFTC roundtable in 14 years (October 2025) and joint staff statements on spot crypto trading—ended the regulatory turf wars that previously paralyzed the industry.

The institutional response validates their thesis. A 2025 EY survey found 71% of institutional investors are invested or planning investment in digital assets, with 59% planning to allocate more than 5% of AUM—an 83% increase. Primary driver cited: regulatory clarity at 57%. Spot Bitcoin ETFs approved in January 2024 accumulated ~$60 billion in AUM by early 2025, demonstrating pent-up institutional demand. Major players like BlackRock, Fidelity, and ARK now offer crypto products, while JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon—previously crypto-skeptical—now permits Bitcoin purchases and considers crypto-backed loans.

Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and digital gold narrative

Both executives strongly support the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve established by Trump's March 6, 2025 executive order, though they emphasize different strategic rationales. Hines articulates the "digital gold" framing: "We view bitcoin as digital gold. We want as much of it as we can possibly have for the American people." When pressed on target amounts, he offered: "That's like asking a country how much gold do you want, right? As much as we can get."

His budget-neutral approach addresses fiscal concerns. Creative mechanisms under White House consideration included revaluing U.S. gold holdings from the statutory $42.22 per ounce to current market levels around $3,400, generating paper profits usable for Bitcoin purchases. Other options: monetizing government-held energy assets, conducting mining operations on federal land, and utilizing the approximately 198,012 BTC already seized from criminal cases. "It's not going to cost the taxpayer a dime," Hines emphasized repeatedly, knowing congressional appetite for new expenditures is limited.

Carbone frames the reserve through competitive lens. He notes premature sales have cost U.S. taxpayers over $17 billion as Bitcoin appreciated after government auctions. No clear policy previously existed for managing seized crypto assets across federal agencies. The reserve establishes a "no-sell" protocol that prevents future opportunity losses while positioning the U.S. among the first sovereign nations to treat Bitcoin as strategic reserve asset—similar to gold, foreign currencies, or special drawing rights.

The global implications extend beyond direct holdings. As Carbone explains, establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve sends powerful signal to other nations that Bitcoin deserves consideration as reserve asset. The Digital Chamber's U.S. Blockchain Roadmap advocates for enactment of the BITCOIN Act to codify this reserve legislatively, ensuring future administrations cannot easily reverse the policy. This permanence would accelerate international central bank accumulation, potentially driving Bitcoin into traditional reserve asset frameworks alongside the dollar itself.

Neither executive sees contradiction between promoting dollar-backed stablecoins and accumulating Bitcoin. Hines explains they serve different functions: stablecoins as payment rails extending dollar utility, Bitcoin as store-of-value reserve asset. The complementary strategy strengthens U.S. financial hegemony through both medium of exchange dominance (stablecoins) and reserve asset diversification (Bitcoin)—covering multiple dimensions of monetary leadership.

Cross-border payments transformation

Hines envisions stablecoins revolutionizing cross-border payments by eliminating intermediaries and reducing costs. His focus on "updating the payment rails that existed, many of which were archaic" reflects frustration with systems fundamentally unchanged since the 1970s. Traditional correspondent banking networks involve multiple intermediaries, 2-5 day settlement times, and fees reaching 5-7% for remittances. Stablecoins enable 24/7/365 near-instantaneous settlement at fractional costs.

The existing market demonstrates this potential. Tether's USDT processes over $1 trillion monthly volume—exceeding major credit card companies—and serves nearly 500 million users globally. USDT is particularly popular in emerging markets with high banking fees and currency instability, serving "hundreds of millions of underserved people living in emerging markets" who use it for savings, payments, and business operations. This real-world adoption in Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia proves demand for dollar-denominated digital payment tools.

Carbone emphasizes how GENIUS Act compliance transforms this from gray-market activity into legitimate financial infrastructure. Requiring AML/CFT compliance, reserve transparency, and regulatory oversight addresses the "wild west" concerns that previously prevented institutional and government embrace. Banks can now integrate stablecoins into treasury operations knowing they meet regulatory standards. Corporations can use them for international payroll, vendor payments, and supply chain finance without compliance risk.

The geopolitical dimension is explicit in both executives' thinking. Every stablecoin transaction, regardless of where it occurs globally, reinforces dollar utility and demand for Treasury bills held as reserves. This extends American monetary influence to populations and regions historically beyond the dollar's reach. As Carbone puts it, if Congress wants to "compete with state-controlled digital currencies abroad," enabling private dollar stablecoins is essential. The alternative—China's digital yuan facilitating yuan-denominated trade outside dollar rails—poses direct threat to American financial hegemony.

Market data supports the cross-border narrative. Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America show high year-over-year growth in retail stablecoin transfers, while North America and Western Europe dominate institutional-sized transfers. Lower-income countries use stablecoins for actual payments (remittances, business transactions), while developed markets use them for financial operations (trading, treasury management, yield generation). This bifurcated adoption pattern suggests stablecoins serve multiple global needs simultaneously.

How U.S. policy becomes the global template

Both executives explicitly predict international regulatory convergence around U.S. frameworks. At Token 2049 Singapore in September 2025, Hines stated: "You'll start to see other regulatory frameworks around the world start to match what we did." He emphasized "the US is the powerhouse in the stablecoin space" and urged other countries including South Korea to "follow what the US has laid out." His confidence stems from first-mover advantage in comprehensive regulation—the GENIUS Act is the first major economy's complete stablecoin framework.

The mechanism for this global influence operates through multiple channels. Article 18 of the GENIUS Act includes a reciprocity clause allowing foreign stablecoin issuers to operate in U.S. markets if their home jurisdictions maintain "substantially similar" regulatory frameworks. This creates strong incentive for other countries to align their regulations with U.S. standards to enable their stablecoin issuers to access massive American markets. The Eurozone's MiCA regulation, while more prescriptive and bank-like, represents similar thinking—comprehensive frameworks that provide legal certainty.

Carbone sees U.S. regulatory clarity attracting global capital flows. The U.S. already represents 26% of global cryptocurrency transaction activity with $2.3 trillion in value from July 2024-June 2025. North America leads in high-value activity with 45% of transactions over $10 million—the institutional segment most sensitive to regulatory environment. By providing clear rules while other jurisdictions remain uncertain or overly restrictive, the U.S. captures capital that might otherwise deploy elsewhere.

The competitive dynamics between jurisdictions validate this thesis. From 2021-2024, unclear U.S. regulations drove companies to Singapore, UAE, and Europe for regulatory certainty. Exchanges, custody providers, and blockchain companies established offshore operations. The 2025 policy shift is reversing this trend. Ripple's CEO Brad Garlinghouse noted "more U.S. deals in 6 weeks post-election than previous 6 months." Binance, Coinbase, and Kraken are expanding U.S. operations. The talent and capital that left is returning.

Hines articulates the long-term vision at Token 2049: establishing U.S. leadership in crypto means "ensuring that the dollar not only remains dominant in the digital age, but thrives." With 98% of stablecoins USD-pegged and over 80% of transactions occurring abroad, clear U.S. regulation proliferates digital dollars globally. Countries wanting to participate in this financial infrastructure—whether for remittances, trade, or financial services—must engage with dollar-based systems. The network effects become self-reinforcing as more users, businesses, and institutions adopt dollar stablecoins as standard.

Institutional adoption pathways now open

The regulatory clarity both executives championed removes specific barriers that prevented institutional deployment. Hines identifies the target audience for USAT explicitly: "businesses and institutions operating under U.S. regulatory framework." These entities—pension funds, endowments, corporate treasuries, asset managers—previously faced compliance uncertainty. Legal departments couldn't approve crypto allocations without clear regulatory treatment. The GENIUS Act, FIT21 market structure frameworks, and SAB 122 custody rules resolve this.

Carbone's Digital Chamber surveys quantify the opportunity. 71% of institutional investors are invested or planning investment in digital assets, with 85% having already allocated or planning allocation. The use cases extend beyond speculation: 73% cite yield generation, 69% foreign exchange, 68% cash management. These operational uses require regulatory certainty. A CFO can't put corporate treasury into stablecoins for yield without knowing the legal status, custody requirements, and accounting treatment.

Specific institutional developments both executives highlight demonstrate momentum. Spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulating ~$60 billion in AUM by early 2025 prove institutional demand exists. Traditional custodians like BNY Mellon ($2.1 billion digital AUM) and State Street entering crypto custody validates the infrastructure. JPMorgan conducting blockchain-based repo transactions and tokenized Treasury settlement on public ledgers shows major banks experimenting with integration. Visa and Mastercard supporting 75+ banks via blockchain networks and moving USDC onto Solana indicate payment giants embrace the technology.

The tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) segment particularly excites both executives as institutional bridge. U.S. Treasury tokenization grew from ~$2 billion to over $8 billion AUM between August 2024 and August 2025. These products—tokenized Treasury bills and bonds—combine blockchain infrastructure with familiar sovereign debt instruments. They offer 24/7 trading, instant settlement, transparent pricing, and programmability while maintaining the safety profile institutions require. This provides onramp for traditional finance to adopt blockchain infrastructure for core operations.

Hines predicts rapid acceleration: "You're going to see tokenized public securities start to happen very quickly... you're going to see market efficiency, you're going to see commodity exchange efficiency. Everything moves onchain." His timeline envisions 24/7 markets with instant settlement becoming standard within years, not decades. The CFTC's September 2025 initiative seeking input on tokenized collateral and stablecoins as derivatives margin demonstrates regulators are preparing for this future rather than blocking it.

Political economy of crypto's Washington victory

The crypto industry's 2024 political strategy, which both executives benefited from, reveals how targeted advocacy secured policy wins. The sector spent over $100 million on congressional races through Super PACs like Fairshake, which supported pro-crypto candidates in both parties. This bipartisan approach, championed by Carbone's Digital Chamber, proved essential. The GENIUS Act passed with 68-30 Senate support including Democrats like Gillibrand and Alsobrooks. FIT21 secured 71 Democratic House votes alongside Republican support.

Carbone emphasizes this bipartisan consensus as critical for durability. Single-party legislation gets repealed when power shifts. Broad support across the political spectrum—reflecting crypto's appeal to both tech-friendly progressives and market-oriented conservatives—provides staying power. His strategy of "building bipartisan coalitions" through education rather than confrontation avoided the polarization that killed previous legislative efforts. Meeting with policy organizations that interact with Democratic members ensured the message reached both sides.

Hines' White House tenure institutionalized crypto within executive branch. The Presidential Council of Advisers on Digital Assets, chaired by David Sacks, gave industry direct line to administration. The July 2025 Working Group report—"the most comprehensive report that's ever been produced, in terms of regulatory framework"—involving SEC, CFTC, Treasury, Commerce, and bank regulators, established coordinated federal approach. This interagency alignment means regulatory agencies "have some autonomy to act independently without constantly needing an executive order."

The personnel dimension matters enormously. Trump appointed crypto advocates to key positions: Paul Atkins (former Digital Chamber board advisor) as SEC Chair, Caroline D. Pham as CFTC Acting Chair, Brian Quintenz as CFTC Chair nominee. Hines notes these individuals "understand the technology" and are "very business-friendly." Their regulatory philosophy emphasizes clear rules enabling innovation rather than enforcement actions blocking development. The contrast with Gary Gensler's SEC—125 enforcement actions totaling $6.05 billion in penalties—couldn't be starker.

Both executives acknowledge expectations are now "sky-high." Carbone describes the atmosphere as "chaotic energy with all-time high vibes and optimism" but cautions "we haven't gotten much done yet" beyond executive actions and the GENIUS Act. Market structure legislation, DeFi frameworks, taxation clarity, and banking integration all remain works in progress. The industry built a "heftier war chest" for future political engagement, recognizing that maintaining favorable policy requires sustained effort beyond single election cycle.

DeFi and decentralization challenges

Decentralized finance presents regulatory challenges both executives address carefully. Hines strongly supports DeFi innovation, stating the administration intends to ensure DeFi projects "stay in the U.S." and that "DeFi has a secure place." However, he balances this with acknowledgment that some compliance is necessary. The Treasury's decision to drop Tornado Cash sanctions and forthcoming DOJ guidance on "software neutrality" suggest frameworks that protect protocol developers while targeting malicious users.

Carbone celebrated the Congressional Review Act resolution rolling back the Biden-administration IRS rule treating DeFi projects as brokerages, calling it "a good day for DeFi." This rule would have required decentralized protocols to collect user information for tax reporting—practically impossible for truly decentralized systems and potentially forcing them offshore or shuttering. Its reversal signals regulatory approach that accommodates DeFi's unique technical architecture.

The FIT21 market structure bill includes DeFi safe harbor provisions attempting to balance innovation and oversight. The challenge both executives recognize: how to prevent illicit activity without undermining the censorship-resistant, permissionless properties that make DeFi valuable. Their approach appears to be enforcing against bad actors while protecting neutral protocols—similar to not holding broadband providers liable for user actions while prosecuting criminals who use internet infrastructure.

This represents sophisticated evolution from blanket skepticism to nuanced understanding. Early regulatory responses treated all DeFi as high-risk or potentially illegal. Both Hines and Carbone recognize legitimate use cases: automated market makers providing efficient trading, lending protocols offering permissionless credit, decentralized exchanges enabling peer-to-peer transactions. The question becomes implementing AML/CFT requirements without centralization mandates that destroy DeFi's core value proposition.

Banking system modernization through blockchain

Both executives view blockchain integration into banking as inevitable and beneficial. Hines emphasizes "we're talking about revolutionizing a financial marketplace which has basically been archaic for the last three decades." The correspondent banking system, ACH transfers taking days, and settlement delays costing trillions in locked capital all represent inefficiencies blockchain eliminates. His vision extends beyond crypto-native companies to transforming traditional banking infrastructure through distributed ledger technology.

The Digital Chamber's U.S. Blockchain Roadmap advocates for "modernizing the U.S. banking system" as one of six core pillars. Carbone notes "many companies are hesitant to adopt blockchain technology due to the confusion between blockchain and crypto in policymaking circles." His educational mission distinguishes between cryptocurrency speculation and blockchain infrastructure applications. Banks can use blockchain for settlement, record-keeping, and automated compliance without exposing customers to volatile crypto assets.

Concrete developments demonstrate this integration beginning. JPMorgan's blockchain-based repo transactions settle same-day rather than next-day, reducing counterparty risk. Tokenized Treasury bills trade 24/7 rather than during exchange hours. Digital bond issuances on public ledgers provide transparent, immutable records reducing administrative costs. These applications deliver clear operational benefits—faster settlement, lower costs, better transparency—without requiring banks to fundamentally change their risk models or customer relationships.

The SAB 122 rescission removing balance sheet barriers was critical enabler both executives highlight. Requiring banks to hold custodied crypto assets as liabilities artificially inflated capital requirements, making custody economically unviable. Its reversal allows banks to offer custody services with appropriate risk management rather than prohibitive capital charges. This opened flood gates for traditional financial institutions to enter digital asset services, competing with crypto-native custodians while bringing regulatory sophistication and institutional trust.

The Federal Reserve master account process remains area needing reform, per the U.S. Blockchain Roadmap. Crypto firms and blockchain-based banks struggle to obtain direct Fed access, forcing reliance on intermediary banks that can "de-bank" them arbitrarily. Carbone and The Digital Chamber advocate for transparent, fair criteria enabling crypto firms meeting regulatory standards to access Fed services directly. This would complete the integration of blockchain-based finance into official banking infrastructure rather than treating it as peripheral.

Energy security through Bitcoin mining

Hines and Carbone both emphasize Bitcoin mining as strategic infrastructure beyond financial considerations. The U.S. Blockchain Roadmap—which Carbone oversees—declares "Bitcoin mining is a critical pillar of U.S. energy security and technological leadership." The argument: mining operations can monetize stranded energy, provide grid flexibility, and reduce reliance on foreign-controlled digital infrastructure.

Bitcoin mining's unique properties enable using energy that otherwise goes to waste. Natural gas flaring at oil wells, curtailed renewable energy when supply exceeds demand, and off-peak nuclear generation all become monetizable through mining. This provides economic incentive to develop energy resources that lack transmission infrastructure or steady demand. Mining companies increasingly partner with energy producers to capture this otherwise-wasted capacity, effectively functioning as controllable load that improves project economics.

Grid stability represents another strategic dimension. Mining operations can shut down instantly when electricity demand spikes, providing flexible load that helps balance supply and demand. Texas grid operator ERCOT has tested programs using miners as demand response resources during peak consumption. This flexibility becomes increasingly valuable as renewable energy—which is intermittent—comprises larger grid share. Miners essentially act as energy buyers of last resort, supporting renewable development by ensuring consistent demand.

The competitive and national security argument resonates particularly with policymakers. Currently, China and Central Asia host significant mining operations despite China's official ban. If adversarial nations control Bitcoin mining, they could potentially influence the network or monitor transactions. U.S.-based mining—supported by clear regulations and cheap domestic energy—ensures American participation in this strategic digital infrastructure. It also provides intelligence community means to monitor blockchain activity and enforce sanctions through collaboration with domestic mining pools.

Both executives support "clear, consistent regulations for mining operations" that enable growth while addressing environmental concerns. The Biden-era proposals for 30% excise tax on mining electricity consumption have been abandoned. Instead, the approach focuses on requiring grid connectivity, environmental reporting, and energy efficiency standards while avoiding punitive taxation that would drive mining offshore. This reflects broader philosophy: shape industry development through smart regulation rather than attempting to ban or heavily tax it.

The "everything moves onchain" thesis

Hines' long-term prediction that "everything moves onchain"—tokenized securities, commodity trading, market infrastructure—reflects both executives' belief that blockchain becomes the backbone of future finance. This vision extends far beyond cryptocurrency speculation to fundamentally reimagining how value transfers, assets are represented, and markets operate. The transition from today's hybrid systems to fully blockchain-based infrastructure will unfold over years but is in their view inevitable.

Tokenized securities offer compelling advantages both executives cite. 24/7 trading instead of exchange hours, instant settlement rather than T+2, fractional ownership enabling smaller investments, and programmable compliance embedded in smart contracts. A tokenized stock could automatically enforce transfer restrictions, distribute dividends, and maintain shareholder registries without intermediaries. This reduces costs, increases accessibility, and enables innovations like dynamic ownership structures adjusting based on real-time data.

Derivatives and commodity markets benefit similarly from blockchain infrastructure. The CFTC's September 2025 initiative exploring tokenized collateral and stablecoins as derivatives margin demonstrates regulatory readiness. Using stablecoins for futures margin eliminates settlement risk and enables instant margin calls rather than daily processes. Tokenized gold, oil, or agricultural commodities could trade continuously with instant physical delivery coordination. These efficiency gains compound across the financial system's trillions in daily transactions.

Carbone emphasizes blockchain's applications beyond finance prove the technology's broader value. Supply chain tracking provides immutable records of product provenance—critical for pharmaceuticals, luxury goods, and food safety. Government operations could use blockchain for transparent fiscal oversight, reducing fraud and improving accountability. Cybersecurity applications include decentralized identity systems reducing single points of failure. These uses demonstrate blockchain's utility extends far beyond payments and trading.

The skeptical question—why do established financial institutions need blockchain when current systems work?—both executives answer with efficiency and access arguments. Yes, current systems work, but they're expensive, slow, and exclude billions globally. Blockchain reduces intermediaries (each taking fees), operates 24/7 (vs. business hours), settles instantly (vs. days), and requires only internet access (vs. bank relationships and minimum balances). These improvements matter to both underserved populations in emerging markets and sophisticated institutions seeking operational efficiency.

The anti-CBDC consensus as strategic decision

Both executives strongly oppose central bank digital currencies while championing private stablecoins—a position now enshrined in U.S. policy through Trump's executive order banning federal CBDC development. Hines states explicitly: "The federal government will never issue a stablecoin and firmly opposes anything resembling a central bank digital currency." He frames private stablecoins as "effectively accomplish[ing] the same goal without government overreach."

The philosophical distinction matters enormously for global crypto adoption. CBDCs give governments programmable, surveillable money enabling unprecedented control. The People's Bank of China's digital yuan trials demonstrate the model: direct central bank accounts for citizens, transaction monitoring, and potential for controls like expiration dates or location-based spending restrictions. Over 130 countries are exploring CBDCs following this template. The U.S. choosing a different path—enabling private stablecoins instead—represents fundamental ideological and strategic divergence.

Carbone argues this private-sector approach better aligns with American values and economic system. "If Congress wants to ban a CBDC and compete with state-controlled digital currencies abroad, the only path is to pass the GENIUS Act and let private stablecoins thrive in the U.S." This frames dollar stablecoins as the democratic answer to authoritarian CBDCs—maintaining privacy, innovation, and competition while still enabling digital payments and extending dollar reach.

The global implications extend beyond technology choice to competing visions of digital financial systems. If the U.S. successfully demonstrates that private stablecoins can deliver the efficiency and accessibility benefits of digital currency without centralized control, other democracies may follow. If U.S. dollar stablecoins become dominant international payment rails, China's digital yuan loses strategic opportunity to displace dollar in global trade. The competition isn't just currencies but governing philosophies embedded in monetary infrastructure.

Both executives emphasize that stablecoin success depends on regulatory frameworks that enable private innovation. The GENIUS Act's requirements—full reserves, transparency, AML/CFT compliance—provide oversight without nationalization. Banks, fintech companies, and blockchain projects can compete to offer best products rather than government monopoly. This preserves innovation incentives while maintaining financial stability. The model more resembles how private banks issue deposits backed by FDIC insurance rather than government fiat.

Complementary visions from different vantage points

The synthesis of Hines' and Carbone's perspectives reveals how private-sector execution and policy advocacy reinforce each other in driving crypto adoption. Hines embodies the revolving door between government and industry—bringing policy expertise to Tether while his White House connections provide ongoing access and intelligence. Carbone represents sustained institutional advocacy—The Digital Chamber's decade-plus work building coalitions and educating lawmakers created foundation for current policy momentum.

Their different vantage points generate complementary insights. Hines speaks from operational experience launching USAT, competing in markets, and navigating actual compliance requirements. His perspectives carry practitioner authenticity—he must live with the regulations he helped create. Carbone operates at meta-level, coordinating 200+ member companies with diverse needs and maintaining relationships across political spectrum. His focus on durable bipartisan consensus and long-term frameworks reflects institutional timeframes rather than product launch pressures.

Both executives' emphasis on education over confrontation marks departure from crypto's earlier libertarian, anti-establishment ethos. Hines spent seven months in ~200 stakeholder meetings explaining blockchain benefits to skeptical regulators. Carbone emphasizes that "so many lawmakers and policymakers don't understand the use cases of blockchain technology" despite years of advocacy. Their patient, pedagogical approach—treating regulators as partners to educate rather than adversaries to defeat—proved more effective than confrontational strategies.

The age dimension adds interesting dynamic. Hines at 30 represents first generation of policymakers who encountered crypto during formative years (his 2014 Bitcoin bowl exposure) rather than viewing it as alien technology. His comfort with both digital assets and traditional policy processes—law degree, congressional campaigns, White House service—bridges two worlds that previously struggled to communicate. Carbone, with more extensive traditional finance and government experience, brings institutional credibility and relationships that opened doors for newer crypto perspectives.

Their predictions for how U.S. policy accelerates global adoption ultimately rest on network effects thesis. As Hines frames it, regulatory clarity attracts institutional capital, which builds infrastructure, which enables applications, which attract users, which increase adoption, which brings more capital—a virtuous cycle. The U.S. providing first-mover clarity in world's largest financial market means this cycle initiates onshore with dollar-denominated products. Other jurisdictions then face choice: adopt compatible regulations to participate in this growing network, or isolate themselves from largest digital asset market.

Novel insights about the path forward

The most striking revelation from synthesizing these perspectives is how policy clarity itself functions as competitive technology. Both executives describe American companies and capital fleeing to Singapore, UAE, and Europe during 2021-2024 regulatory uncertainty. The 2025 policy shift isn't primarily about specific rule changes but about ending existential uncertainty. When companies can't determine if their business model is legal or if regulators will shut them down via enforcement, they cannot plan, invest, or grow. Clarity—even with imperfect rules—enables development that uncertainty prevents.

This suggests the global crypto adoption race isn't won by most permissive regulations but by clearest frameworks. Singapore's success attracting blockchain companies stemmed from transparent licensing requirements and responsive regulators more than lax rules. The EU's MiCA regulation, while more prescriptive than U.S. approach, provides comprehensive certainty. Both executives predict American hybrid model—comprehensive federal frameworks (GENIUS Act) with state innovation (smaller stablecoin issuers)—strikes optimal balance between oversight and experimentation.

The stablecoin-as-geopolitical-strategy dimension reveals sophisticated thinking about digital currency competition. Rather than racing to create U.S. government CBDC to compete with China's digital yuan, U.S. strategy leverages private innovation while maintaining dollar dominance. Every private stablecoin becomes dollar proliferation vehicle requiring no government infrastructure investment or ongoing operational costs. The regulatory framework just enables private companies to do what they would attempt anyway, but safely and at scale. This approach plays to American strengths—innovative private sector, deep capital markets, strong rule of law—rather than attempting centralized technological feat.

The timing dimension both executives emphasize deserves attention. The confluence of technological maturity (blockchain scalability improvements), institutional readiness (71% planning allocations), political alignment (pro-crypto administration), and regulatory clarity (GENIUS Act passage) creates unique window. Hines' comment that the administration "moves at tech speed" reflects understanding that policy delays of even 1-2 years could surrender opportunities to faster-moving jurisdictions. The urgency both express isn't manufactured—it reflects recognition that global standards are being set now, and absent U.S. leadership, other powers will shape the frameworks.

Perhaps most significantly, both executives articulate vision where crypto adoption becomes largely invisible as technology gets embedded in infrastructure. The end state Hines describes—tokenized securities trading 24/7, commodity exchanges on blockchain, instant settlement as default—doesn't look like "crypto" in today's sense of speculative digital assets. It looks like normal financial operations that happen to use blockchain backend infrastructure. Carbone's emphasis on distinguishing blockchain technology from cryptocurrency speculation serves this vision: making blockchain adoption about modernization and efficiency rather than ideological cryptocurrency embrace.

The path forward both executives outline faces implementation challenges they acknowledge but downplay. Legislative consensus on stablecoins proves easier than market structure details where SEC-CFTC jurisdictional battles persist. DeFi frameworks remain conceptual more than operational. International coordination on standards requires diplomacy beyond U.S. unilateral action. Banking system integration faces cultural and technological inertia. But both express confidence these obstacles are surmountable with sustained focus—and that rivals face same challenges without America's advantages in capital, technology, and institutional development.

Their complementary work—Hines building products within new regulatory frameworks, Carbone advocating for continued policy improvements—suggests this is marathon not sprint. The July 2025 GENIUS Act passage marks inflection point, not conclusion. Both emphasize expectations are "sky-high" but caution much work remains. The success of their shared vision depends on translating policy clarity into actual adoption: institutional capital deploying, traditional banks offering services, global users adopting dollar stablecoins, and infrastructure proving reliable at scale. The next 2-3 years will reveal whether American regulatory frameworks actually do become template others follow, or if competing approaches from EU, Asia, or elsewhere prove more attractive.

What's certain is that U.S. crypto policy has fundamentally transformed from hostile to enabling in remarkably short time—18 months from peak enforcement to comprehensive legislation. Bo Hines and Cody Carbone, from their respective positions orchestrating this transformation, offer rare insight into both the deliberate strategy behind the shift and ambitious vision for how it accelerates global adoption. Their playbook—regulatory clarity over ambiguity, private stablecoins over government CBDCs, institutional integration over parallel systems, and bipartisan consensus over partisan battles—represents calculation that American competitive advantages lie in enabling innovation within frameworks rather than attempting to control or suppress technologies that will develop regardless. If they're right, the next decade sees blockchain become invisible infrastructure powering global finance, with dollar-denominated stablecoins serving as rails reaching billions currently beyond traditional banking access.