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62 posts tagged with "Stablecoins"

Stablecoin projects and their role in crypto finance

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Brazil Stablecoin Regulation

· 8 min read
Dora Noda
Software Engineer

Ninety percent. That's the share of Brazil's $319 billion annual crypto volume flowing through stablecoins—a figure that caught regulators' attention and triggered Latin America's most comprehensive crypto framework. When Banco Central do Brasil finalized its three-part regulatory package in November 2025, it didn't just tighten rules on exchanges. It fundamentally reshaped how the region's largest economy treats dollar-pegged digital assets, with implications rippling from Sao Paulo to Buenos Aires.

Stablecoin Power Rankings 2026: Inside the $318B Market Where Tether Prints $13B Profits and Coinbase Takes Half of USDC's Revenue

· 9 min read
Dora Noda
Software Engineer

Tether made $13 billion in profit last year. That's more than Goldman Sachs. And it did it with roughly 200 employees, no branches, and a product that's simply a digital dollar pegged to treasury yields.

Welcome to the stablecoin economy of 2026, where the two largest issuers control over 80% of a $318 billion market, transaction volumes have surpassed Visa and PayPal combined, and the real battle isn't about technology—it's about who captures the yield on hundreds of billions in reserves.

The Duopoly: USDT and USDC by the Numbers

The stablecoin market has exploded. Total supply jumped from $205 billion at the start of 2025 to over $318 billion in early 2026—a 55% surge in just twelve months. Transaction volumes hit $33 trillion in 2025, up 72% year-over-year.

But this growth hasn't democratized the market. If anything, it's entrenched the leaders.

Tether's Unstoppable Machine

Tether's USDT controls approximately 61% of the stablecoin market with a $187 billion market cap. Its dominance on centralized exchanges is even more pronounced—75% of all stablecoin trading volume flows through USDT.

The profit numbers are staggering:

  • 2024 full-year profit: $13 billion (up from $6.2B in 2023)
  • 2025 H1 profit: $5.7 billion
  • 2025 Q3 YTD profit: Exceeded $10 billion
  • U.S. Treasury holdings: $135 billion, making Tether one of the world's largest holders of U.S. government debt

Where does this money come from? Roughly $7 billion annually flows from Treasury and repo holdings alone. Another $5 billion came from unrealized gains on Bitcoin and gold positions. The remainder comes from other investments.

With group equity now exceeding $20 billion and a reserve buffer above $7 billion, Tether has evolved from a controversial crypto tool into a financial institution rivaling Wall Street giants.

Circle's Public Debut and the USDC Economics

Circle took a different path. In June 2025, the company went public on the NYSE at $31 per share, pricing above expectations. Shares exploded 168% on day one and have since climbed over 700% from the IPO price, giving Circle a market cap exceeding $63 billion.

USDC now holds a $78 billion market cap—about 25% of the stablecoin market. But here's what makes Circle's model fascinating: its economics are fundamentally different from Tether's.

Circle's 2025 financial trajectory:

  • Q1 2025: $578.6 million revenue
  • Q2 2025: $658 million revenue (+53% YoY)
  • Q3 2025: $740 million revenue (+66% YoY), $214 million net income

But there's a catch that explains why Circle's profits pale compared to Tether's despite managing similar-scale reserves.

The Coinbase Connection: Where Half the USDC Revenue Goes

The stablecoin business isn't just about issuing tokens and collecting yield. It's about distribution. And Circle pays dearly for it.

Under the revenue-sharing agreement with Coinbase, the exchange receives:

  • 100% of interest income from USDC held directly on Coinbase
  • 50% of residual revenue from USDC held off-platform

In practice, this means Coinbase captured approximately 56% of all USDC reserve revenue in 2024. For Q1 2025 alone, Coinbase earned roughly $300 million in distribution payments from Circle.

JPMorgan's analysis breaks it down:

  • On-platform: ~$13 billion USDC generates $125 million quarterly at 20-25% margins
  • Off-platform: 50/50 split yields $170 million quarterly at near 100% margin

By year-end 2025, total USDC reserve income was projected to reach $2.44 billion—with $1.5 billion going to Coinbase and only $940 million to Circle.

This arrangement explains a paradox: Circle's stock trades at 37x revenue and 401x earnings because investors are betting on USDC growth, but the company that actually captures most of the economics is Coinbase. It also explains why USDC, despite being the more regulated and transparent stablecoin, generates far less profit per dollar in circulation than USDT.

The Challengers: Cracks in the Duopoly

For years, the USDT-USDC duopoly seemed unassailable. At the start of 2025, they controlled 88% of the market combined. By October, that figure had dropped to 82%.

A 6-percentage-point decline might seem modest, but it represents over $50 billion in market cap captured by alternatives. And several challengers are gaining momentum.

USD1: The Trump-Backed Wildcard

The most controversial entrant is USD1 from World Liberty Financial, a company with deep Trump family ties (60% reportedly owned by a Trump business entity).

Launched in April 2025, USD1 has grown to nearly $3.5 billion in market cap in just eight months—placing it fifth among all stablecoins, just behind PayPal's PYUSD. Its velocity metric of 39 (average times each token changed hands) indicates genuine usage, not just speculative holding.

Some analysts, like Blockstreet's Kyle Klemmer, predict USD1 could become the dominant stablecoin before Trump's term ends in 2029. Whether that's achievable or hyperbole, the growth rate is undeniable.

PayPal USD: The Fintech Play

PayPal's PYUSD started 2025 at under $500 million market cap and has climbed to over $2.5 billion—adding $1 billion in the final two weeks of 2025 alone.

The limitation is obvious: PYUSD exists primarily within PayPal's ecosystem. Third-party exchange liquidity remains thin compared to USDT or USDC. But PayPal's distribution reach—over 400 million active accounts—represents a different kind of moat.

USDS: The DeFi Native

Sky Protocol's USDS (formerly DAI) has grown from $1.27 billion to $4.35 billion in 2025—a 243% increase. Among DeFi-native users, it remains the preferred decentralized alternative.

RLUSD: Ripple's Velocity King

Ripple's RLUSD achieved the highest velocity of any major stablecoin at 71—meaning each token changed hands 71 times on average during 2025. With only $1.3 billion in market cap, it's small but intensely used within Ripple's payment rails.

The Yield War: Why Distribution Will Define Winners

Here's the uncomfortable truth about stablecoins in 2026: the underlying product is largely commoditized. Every major stablecoin offers the same core value proposition—a dollar-pegged token backed by treasuries and cash equivalents.

The differentiation happens in distribution.

As Delphi Digital noted: "If issuance becomes commoditized, distribution will become the key differentiator. Stablecoin issuers most deeply integrated into payment rails, exchange liquidity, and merchant software are likely to capture the largest share of settlement demand."

This explains why:

  • Tether dominates exchanges: 75% of CEX stablecoin volume flows through USDT
  • Circle pays Coinbase so heavily: Distribution costs are the price of relevance
  • PayPal and Trump's USD1 matter: They bring existing user bases and political capital

The Regulatory Catalyst

The passage of the GENIUS Act in July 2025 fundamentally changed the competitive landscape. The law established the first federal regulatory framework for payment stablecoins, providing:

  • Clear licensing requirements for stablecoin issuers
  • Reserve and audit standards
  • Consumer protection provisions

For Circle, this was validation. As the most regulated major issuer, the GENIUS Act effectively blessed its compliance-heavy model. CRCL shares surged following the bill's passage.

For Tether, the implications are more complex. Operating primarily offshore, USDT faces questions about how it will adapt to a regulated U.S. market—or whether it will continue focusing on international growth where regulatory arbitrage remains possible.

What This Means for Builders

Stablecoins have achieved something remarkable: they're the first crypto product to reach genuine mainstream utility. With $33 trillion in 2025 transaction volume and over 500 million users, they've outgrown their origins as exchange trading pairs.

For developers and builders, several implications emerge:

  1. Multi-stablecoin support is table stakes: No single stablecoin will win everywhere. Applications need to support USDT for exchange liquidity, USDC for regulated markets, and emerging alternatives for specific use cases.

  2. Yield economics are shifting: The Coinbase-Circle model shows that distribution partners will capture increasing share of stablecoin economics. Building native integrations early matters.

  3. Regulatory clarity enables innovation: The GENIUS Act creates a predictable environment for stablecoin applications in payments, lending, and DeFi.

  4. Geographic arbitrage is real: Different stablecoins dominate different regions. USDT leads in Asia and emerging markets; USDC dominates U.S. institutional use.

The $318 Billion Question

The stablecoin market will likely exceed $500 billion by 2027 if current growth rates persist. The question isn't whether stablecoins will matter—it's who will capture the value.

Tether's $13 billion profit demonstrates the pure economics of the model. Circle's $63 billion market cap shows what investors will pay for regulatory positioning and growth potential. The challengers—USD1, PYUSD, USDS—prove the market isn't as locked up as it appears.

What remains constant is the underlying dynamic: stablecoins are becoming critical infrastructure for the global financial system. And the companies that control that infrastructure—whether through sheer scale like Tether, regulatory capture like Circle, or political capital like USD1—stand to profit enormously.

The stablecoin wars aren't about technology. They're about trust, distribution, and who gets to keep the yield on hundreds of billions of dollars. In that battle, the current leaders have massive advantages. But with 18% of the market now outside the duopoly and growing, the challengers aren't going away.


Building applications that need reliable stablecoin infrastructure across multiple chains? BlockEden.xyz provides enterprise-grade RPC endpoints and APIs for Ethereum, Sui, Aptos, and 20+ networks—giving you the blockchain connectivity layer your multi-chain stablecoin integration needs.

US Crypto Regulatory Trifecta

· 9 min read
Dora Noda
Software Engineer

In July 2025, President Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law—America's first federal legislation on digital assets. The House passed the CLARITY Act with a 294-134 bipartisan vote. And an executive order established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve holding 198,000 BTC. After years of "regulation by enforcement," the United States is finally building a comprehensive crypto framework. But with the CLARITY Act stalled in the Senate and economists skeptical of Bitcoin reserves, will 2026 deliver the regulatory clarity the industry has demanded—or more gridlock?

Stablecoin Power Rankings

· 8 min read
Dora Noda
Software Engineer

Tether made $10 billion in profit through the first three quarters of 2025—more than Bank of America. Coinbase earns roughly $1.5 billion annually just from its revenue-sharing deal with Circle. Meanwhile, the combined market share of USDT and USDC has slipped from 88% to 82%, as a new generation of challengers chips away at the duopoly. Welcome to the most profitable corner of crypto that most people don't fully understand.

White-Label Stablecoin Wars: How Platforms Are Recapturing the $10B Margin Circle and Tether Keep

· 10 min read
Dora Noda
Software Engineer

Tether made $10 billion in profit during the first three quarters of 2025. With fewer than 200 employees, that's over $65 million in gross profit per person—making it one of the most profitable companies per employee on Earth.

Circle isn't far behind. Despite sharing 50% of its reserve revenue with Coinbase, the USDC issuer generated $740 million in Q3 2025 alone, keeping 38% margins after distribution costs.

Now platforms are asking an obvious question: why are we sending this money to Circle and Tether?

Hyperliquid holds nearly $6 billion in USDC deposits—about 7.5% of all USDC in circulation. Until September 2025, every dollar of interest on those deposits flowed to Circle. Then Hyperliquid launched USDH, its own native stablecoin, with 50% of reserve yields flowing back to the protocol.

They're not alone. SoFi became the first U.S. national bank to issue a stablecoin on a public blockchain. Coinbase launched white-label stablecoin infrastructure. WSPN rolled out turnkey solutions letting enterprises deploy branded stablecoins in weeks. The great stablecoin margin recapture has begun.

The Great Stablecoin Margin Recapture: Why Platforms Are Ditching Circle and Tether

· 8 min read
Dora Noda
Software Engineer

Hyperliquid holds $5.97 billion in USDC deposits—nearly 10% of Circle's total circulating supply. At a conservative 4% Treasury yield, that represents $240 million in annual revenue flowing to Circle. Hyperliquid sees none of it.

So Hyperliquid launched USDH.

This isn't an isolated move. Across DeFi, the same calculation is playing out: why surrender hundreds of millions in yield to third-party stablecoin issuers when you can capture it yourself? MetaMask launched mUSD. Aave is building around GHO. A new class of white-label infrastructure from M0 and Agora is making protocol-native stablecoins viable for any platform with scale.

The stablecoin duopoly—Tether and Circle's 80%+ market share—is fracturing. And the $314 billion stablecoin market is about to get much more competitive.

The Yield Stablecoin Wars: How USDe and USDS Are Reshaping the $310B Market

· 11 min read
Dora Noda
Software Engineer

In early 2024, yield-bearing stablecoins held about $1.5 billion in total supply. By mid-2025, that figure had exploded past $11 billion—a 7x increase that represents the fastest-growing segment of the entire stablecoin market.

The appeal is obvious: why hold dollars that earn nothing when you could hold dollars that earn 7%, or 15%, or even 20%? But the mechanisms generating these yields are anything but simple. They involve derivatives strategies, perpetual futures funding rates, Treasury bills, and complex smart contract systems that even experienced DeFi users struggle to fully understand.

And just as this new category gained momentum, regulators stepped in. The GENIUS Act, signed into law in July 2025, explicitly prohibits stablecoin issuers from offering yield to retail customers. Yet instead of killing yield-bearing stablecoins, the regulation triggered a flood of capital into protocols that found ways to stay compliant—or operate outside U.S. jurisdiction entirely.

This is the story of how stablecoins evolved from simple dollar pegs into sophisticated yield-generating instruments, who's winning the battle for $310 billion in stablecoin capital, and what risks investors face in this new paradigm.

The Market Landscape: $33 Trillion in Motion

Before diving into yield mechanisms, the scale of the stablecoin market deserves attention.

Stablecoin transaction volumes soared 72% to hit $33 trillion in 2025, according to Artemis Analytics. Total supply reached nearly $310 billion by mid-December—up more than 50% from $205 billion at the start of the year. Bloomberg Intelligence projects stablecoin payment flows could reach $56.6 trillion by 2030.

The market remains dominated by two giants. Tether's USDT holds about 60% market share with $186.6 billion in circulation. Circle's USDC commands roughly 25% with $75.12 billion. Together they control 85% of the market.

But here's the interesting twist: USDC led transaction volume with $18.3 trillion, beating USDT's $13.3 trillion despite having a smaller market cap. This higher velocity reflects USDC's deeper DeFi integration and regulatory compliance positioning.

Neither USDT nor USDC offers yield. They're the stable, boring bedrock of the ecosystem. The action—and the risk—lives in the next generation of stablecoins.

How Ethena's USDe Actually Works

Ethena's USDe emerged as the dominant yield-bearing stablecoin, reaching over $9.5 billion in circulation by mid-2025. Understanding how it generates yield requires understanding a concept called delta-neutral hedging.

The Delta-Neutral Strategy

When you mint USDe, Ethena doesn't just hold your collateral. The protocol takes your ETH or BTC, holds it as the "long" position, and simultaneously opens a short perpetual futures position of the same size.

If ETH rises 10%, the spot holdings gain value, but the short futures position loses an equivalent amount. If ETH falls 10%, the spot holdings lose value, but the short futures position gains. The result is delta-neutral—price movements in either direction cancel out, maintaining the dollar peg.

This is clever, but it raises an obvious question: if price movements net to zero, where does the yield come from?

The Funding Rate Engine

Perpetual futures contracts use a mechanism called funding rates to keep their prices aligned with spot markets. When the market is bullish and more traders are long than short, longs pay shorts a funding fee. When the market is bearish, shorts pay longs.

Historically, crypto markets trend bullish, meaning funding rates are positive more often than negative. Ethena's strategy collects these funding payments continuously. In 2024, sUSDe—the staked version of USDe—delivered an average APY of 18%, with peaks touching 55.9% during the March 2024 rally.

The protocol adds additional yield from staking a portion of its ETH collateral (earning Ethereum's native staking yield) and from interest on liquid stablecoin reserves held in instruments like BlackRock's BUIDL tokenized Treasury fund.

The Risks Nobody Wants to Discuss

The delta-neutral strategy sounds elegant, but it carries specific risks.

Funding Rate Reversal: During sustained bear markets, funding rates can turn negative for extended periods. When this happens, Ethena's short positions pay longs instead of receiving payments. The protocol maintains a reserve fund to cover these periods, but a prolonged downturn could drain reserves and force yield rates to zero—or worse.

Exchange Risk: Ethena holds its futures positions on centralized exchanges like Binance, Bybit, and OKX. While collateral is held with off-exchange custodians, the counterparty risk of exchange insolvency remains. An exchange failure during volatile markets could leave the protocol unable to close positions or access funds.

Liquidity and Depeg Risk: If confidence in USDe falters, a wave of redemptions could force the protocol to unwind positions rapidly in illiquid markets, potentially breaking the peg.

During August 2024, when funding rates compressed, sUSDe yields dropped to about 4.3%—still positive, but far from the double-digit returns that attracted initial capital. Recent yields have ranged between 7% and 30% depending on market conditions.

Sky's USDS: The MakerDAO Evolution

While Ethena bet on derivatives, MakerDAO (now rebranded as Sky) took a different path for its yield-bearing stablecoin.

From DAI to USDS

In May 2025, MakerDAO completed its "Endgame" transformation, retiring the MKR governance token, launching SKY at a 24,000:1 conversion ratio, and introducing USDS as the successor to DAI.

USDS supply surged from 98.5 million to 2.32 billion in just five months—a 135% increase. The Sky Savings Rate platform reached $4 billion in TVL, growing 60% in 30 days.

Unlike Ethena's derivatives strategy, Sky generates yield through more traditional means: lending revenue from the protocol's credit facilities, fees from the stablecoin operations, and interest from real-world asset investments.

The Sky Savings Rate

When you hold sUSDS (the yield-bearing wrapped version), you automatically earn the Sky Savings Rate—currently around 4.5% APY. Your balance increases over time without needing to lock, stake, or take any action.

This is lower than Ethena's typical yields, but it's also more predictable. Sky's yield comes from lending activity and Treasury exposure rather than volatile funding rates.

Sky activated USDS rewards for SKY stakers in May 2025, distributing over $1.6 million in the first week. The protocol now allocates 50% of revenue to stakers, and spent $96 million in 2025 on buybacks that reduced SKY's circulating supply by 5.55%.

The $2.5 Billion Institutional Bet

In a significant move, Sky approved a $2.5 billion USDS allocation to Obex, an incubator led by Framework Ventures targeting institutional-grade DeFi yield projects. This signals Sky's ambition to compete for institutional capital—the largest untapped pool of potential stablecoin demand.

The Frax Alternative: Chasing the Fed

Frax Finance represents perhaps the most ambitious regulatory strategy in yield-bearing stablecoins.

Treasury-Backed Yield

Frax's sFRAX and sfrxUSD stablecoins are backed by short-term U.S. Treasuries, purchased through a lead bank brokerage relationship with a Kansas City bank. The yield tracks the Federal Reserve's rates, currently delivering around 4.8% APY.

Over 60 million sFRAX are currently staked. While yields are lower than Ethena's peaks, they're backed by the U.S. government's credit rather than crypto derivatives—a fundamentally different risk profile.

The Fed Master Account Gambit

Frax is actively pursuing a Federal Reserve master account—the same type of account that banks use for direct access to Fed payment systems. If successful, this would represent unprecedented integration between DeFi and traditional banking infrastructure.

The strategy positions Frax as the most regulation-compliant yield-bearing stablecoin, potentially appealing to institutional investors who can't touch Ethena's derivatives exposure.

The GENIUS Act: Regulation Arrives

The Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act), signed in July 2025, brought the first comprehensive federal framework for stablecoins—and immediate controversy.

The Yield Prohibition

The act explicitly prohibits stablecoin issuers from paying interest or yield to holders. The intent is clear: prevent stablecoins from competing with bank deposits and FDIC-insured accounts.

Banks lobbied hard for this provision, warning that yield-bearing stablecoins could drain $6.6 trillion from the traditional banking system. The concern isn't abstract: when you can earn 7% on a stablecoin versus 0.5% in a savings account, the incentive to move money is overwhelming.

The Loophole Problem

However, the act doesn't explicitly prohibit affiliated third parties or exchanges from offering yield-bearing products. This loophole allows protocols to restructure so that the stablecoin issuer doesn't directly pay yield, but an affiliated entity does.

Banking groups are now lobbying to close this loophole before implementation deadlines in January 2027. The Bank Policy Institute and 52 state banking associations sent a letter to Congress arguing that exchange-offered yield programs create "high-yield shadow banks" without consumer protections.

Ethena's Response: USDtb

Rather than fight regulators, Ethena launched USDtb—a U.S.-regulated variant backed by tokenized money-market funds rather than crypto derivatives. This makes USDtb compliant with GENIUS Act requirements while preserving Ethena's infrastructure for institutional customers.

The strategy reflects a broader pattern: yield-bearing protocols are forking into compliant (lower yield) and non-compliant (higher yield) versions, with the latter increasingly serving non-U.S. markets.

Comparing the Options

For investors navigating this landscape, here's how the major yield-bearing stablecoins stack up:

sUSDe (Ethena): Highest potential yields (7-30% depending on market conditions), but exposed to funding rate reversals and exchange counterparty risk. Largest market cap among yield-bearing options. Best for crypto-native users comfortable with derivatives exposure.

sUSDS (Sky): Lower but more stable yields (~4.5%), backed by lending revenue and RWAs. Strong institutional positioning with the $2.5B Obex allocation. Best for users seeking predictable returns with lower volatility.

sFRAX/sfrxUSD (Frax): Treasury-backed yields (~4.8%), most regulatory compliant approach. Pursuing Fed master account. Best for users prioritizing regulatory safety and traditional finance integration.

sDAI (Sky/Maker): The original yield-bearing stablecoin, still functional alongside USDS with 4-8% yields through the Dynamic Savings Rate. Best for users already in the Maker ecosystem.

The Risks That Keep Me Up at Night

Every yield-bearing stablecoin carries risks beyond what their marketing materials suggest.

Smart Contract Risk: Every yield mechanism involves complex smart contracts that could contain undiscovered vulnerabilities. The more sophisticated the strategy, the larger the attack surface.

Regulatory Risk: The GENIUS Act loophole may close. International regulators may follow the U.S. lead. Protocols may be forced to restructure or cease operations entirely.

Systemic Risk: If multiple yield-bearing stablecoins face redemption pressure simultaneously—during a market crash, regulatory crackdown, or confidence crisis—the resulting liquidations could cascade across DeFi.

Yield Sustainability: High yields attract capital until competition compresses returns. What happens to USDe's TVL when yields drop to 3% and stay there?

Where This Goes Next

The yield-bearing stablecoin category has grown from novelty to $11 billion in assets remarkably quickly. Several trends will shape its evolution.

Institutional Entry: As Sky's Obex allocation demonstrates, protocols are positioning for institutional capital. This will likely drive more conservative, Treasury-backed products rather than derivatives-based high yields.

Regulatory Arbitrage: Expect continued geographic fragmentation, with higher-yield products serving non-U.S. markets while compliant versions target regulated institutions.

Competition Compression: As more protocols enter the yield-bearing space, yields will compress toward traditional money market rates plus a DeFi risk premium. The 20%+ yields of early 2024 are unlikely to return sustainably.

Infrastructure Integration: Yield-bearing stablecoins will increasingly become the default settlement layer for DeFi, replacing traditional stablecoins in lending protocols, DEX pairs, and collateral systems.

The Bottom Line

Yield-bearing stablecoins represent a genuine innovation in how digital dollars work. Instead of idle capital, stablecoin holdings can now earn returns that range from Treasury-rate equivalents to double-digit yields.

But these yields come from somewhere. Ethena's returns come from derivatives funding rates that can reverse. Sky's yields come from lending activity that carries credit risk. Frax's yields come from Treasuries, but require trusting the protocol's banking relationships.

The GENIUS Act's yield prohibition reflects regulators' understanding that yield-bearing stablecoins compete directly with bank deposits. Whether current loopholes survive through 2027 implementation remains uncertain.

For users, the calculus is straightforward: higher yields mean higher risks. sUSDe's 15%+ returns during bull markets require accepting exchange counterparty risk and funding rate volatility. sUSDS's 4.5% offers more stability but less upside. Treasury-backed options like sFRAX provide government-backed yield but minimal premium over traditional finance.

The yield stablecoin wars have just begun. With $310 billion in stablecoin capital up for grabs, protocols that find the right balance of yield, risk, and regulatory compliance will capture enormous value. Those that miscalculate will join the crypto graveyard.

Choose your risks accordingly.


This article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Yield-bearing stablecoins carry risks including but not limited to smart contract vulnerabilities, regulatory changes, and collateral devaluation.

The Yield-Bearing Stablecoin Revolution: How USDe, USDS, and USD1 Are Redefining Dollar Exposure

· 9 min read
Dora Noda
Software Engineer

There's no such thing as free yield. Yet yield-bearing stablecoins now command $11 billion in supply—up from $1.5 billion in early 2024—with JPMorgan predicting they could capture 50% of the entire stablecoin market. In a world where USDT and USDC offer 0% returns, protocols promising 6-20% APY on dollar-pegged assets are rewriting the rules of what stablecoins can be.

But here's the uncomfortable truth: every percentage point of yield comes with corresponding risk. The recent USDO depeg to $0.87 reminded markets that even "stable" coins can break. Understanding how these next-generation stablecoins actually work—and what can go wrong—has become essential for anyone allocating capital in DeFi.

a16z's 17 Crypto Predictions for 2026: Bold Visions, Hidden Agendas, and What They Got Right

· 9 min read
Dora Noda
Software Engineer

When the world's largest crypto-focused venture capital firm publishes its annual predictions, the industry listens. But should you believe everything Andreessen Horowitz tells you about 2026?

a16z crypto recently released "17 things we're excited about for crypto in 2026"—a sweeping manifesto covering AI agents, stablecoins, privacy, prediction markets, and the future of internet payments. With $7.6 billion in crypto assets under management and a portfolio that includes Coinbase, Uniswap, and Solana, a16z isn't just predicting the future. They're betting billions on it.

That creates an interesting tension. When a VC firm managing 18% of all U.S. venture capital points to specific trends, capital flows follow. So are these predictions genuine foresight, or sophisticated marketing for their portfolio companies? Let's dissect each major theme—what's genuinely insightful, what's self-serving, and what they're getting wrong.

The Stablecoin Thesis: Credible, But Overstated

a16z's biggest bet is that stablecoins will continue their explosive trajectory. The numbers they cite are impressive: $46 trillion in transaction volume last year—more than 20x PayPal's volume, approaching Visa's territory, and rapidly catching up to ACH.

What they got right: Stablecoins genuinely crossed into mainstream finance in 2025. Visa expanded its USDC settlement program on Solana. Mastercard joined Paxos' Global Dollar Network. Circle has over 100 financial institutions in its pipeline. Bloomberg Intelligence projects stablecoin payment flows will hit $5.3 trillion by year-end 2026—an 82.7% increase.

The regulatory tailwind is real too. The GENIUS Act, expected to pass in early 2026, would establish clear rules for stablecoin issuance under FDIC supervision, giving banks a regulated path to issue dollar-backed stablecoins.

The counterpoint: a16z is deeply invested in the stablecoin ecosystem through portfolio companies like Coinbase (which issues USDC through its partnership with Circle). When they predict "the internet becomes the bank" through programmable stablecoin settlement, they're describing a future where their investments become infrastructure.

The $46 trillion figure also deserves scrutiny. Much of stablecoin transaction volume is circular—traders moving funds between exchanges, DeFi protocols churning liquidity, arbitrageurs cycling positions. The Treasury identifies $5.7 trillion in "at-risk" deposits that could migrate to stablecoins, but actual consumer and business adoption remains a fraction of headline numbers.

Reality check: Stablecoins will grow significantly, but "the internet becomes the bank" is a decade away, not a 2026 reality. Banks move slowly for good reasons—compliance, fraud prevention, consumer protection. Stripe adding stablecoin rails doesn't mean your grandmother will pay rent in USDC next year.

The AI Agent Prediction: Visionary, But Premature

a16z's most forward-looking prediction introduces "KYA"—Know Your Agent—a cryptographic identity system for AI agents that would let autonomous systems make payments, sign contracts, and transact without human intervention.

Sean Neville, who wrote this prediction, argues the bottleneck has shifted from AI intelligence to AI identity. Financial services now have "non-human identities" outnumbering human employees 96-to-1, yet these systems remain "unbanked ghosts" that can't autonomously transact.

What they got right: The agentic economy is real and growing. Fetch.ai is launching what it calls the world's first autonomous AI payment system in January 2026. Visa's Trusted Agent Protocol provides cryptographic standards for verifying AI agents. PayPal and OpenAI partnered to enable agentic commerce in ChatGPT. The x402 protocol for machine-to-machine payments has been adopted by Google Cloud, AWS, and Anthropic.

The counterpoint: The DeFAI hype cycle of early 2025 already crashed once. Teams experimented with AI agents for automated trading, wallet management, and token sniping. Most delivered nothing of real-world value.

The fundamental challenge isn't technical—it's liability. When an AI agent makes a bad trade or gets tricked into a malicious transaction, who's responsible? Current legal frameworks have no answer. KYA solves the identity problem but not the accountability problem.

There's also the systemic risk nobody wants to discuss: what happens when thousands of AI agents running similar strategies interact? "Highly reactive agents may trigger chain reactions," admits one industry analysis. "Strategy collisions will cause short-term chaos."

Reality check: AI agents making autonomous crypto payments will remain experimental in 2026. The infrastructure is being built, but regulatory clarity and liability frameworks are years behind the technology.

Privacy as "The Ultimate Moat": Right Problem, Wrong Framing

Ali Yahya's prediction that privacy will define blockchain winners in 2026 is the most technically sophisticated argument in the collection. His thesis: the throughput wars are over. Every major chain now handles thousands of transactions per second. The new differentiator is privacy, and "bridging secrets is hard"—meaning users who commit to a privacy-preserving chain face real friction leaving.

What they got right: Privacy demand is surging. Google searches for crypto privacy reached new highs in 2025. Zcash's shielded pool grew to nearly 4 million ZEC. Railgun's transaction flows exceeded $200 million monthly. Arthur Hayes echoed this sentiment: "Large institutions don't want their information public or at risk of going public."

The technical argument is sound. Privacy creates network effects that throughput doesn't. You can bridge tokens between chains trivially. You can't bridge transaction history without exposing it.

The counterpoint: a16z has significant investments in Ethereum L2s and projects that would benefit from privacy upgrades. When they predict privacy becomes essential, they're partly lobbying for features their portfolio companies need.

More importantly, there's a regulatory elephant in the room. The same governments that recently sanctioned Tornado Cash aren't going to embrace privacy chains overnight. The tension between institutional adoption (which requires KYC/AML) and genuine privacy (which undermines it) hasn't been resolved.

Reality check: Privacy will matter more in 2026, but "winner-take-most" dynamics are overstated. Regulatory pressure will fragment the market into compliant quasi-privacy solutions for institutions and genuinely private chains for everyone else.

Prediction Markets: Undersold, Actually

Andrew Hall's prediction that prediction markets will "go bigger, broader, smarter" is perhaps the least controversial item on the list—and one where a16z might be underselling the opportunity.

What they got right: Polymarket proved prediction markets can go mainstream during the 2024 U.S. election. The platform generated more accurate forecasts than traditional polling in several races. Now the question is whether that success translates beyond political events.

Hall predicts LLM oracles resolving disputed markets, AI agents trading to surface novel predictive signals, and contracts on everything from corporate earnings to weather events.

The counterpoint: Prediction markets face fundamental liquidity challenges outside major events. A market predicting the outcome of the Super Bowl attracts millions in volume. A market predicting next quarter's iPhone sales struggles to find counterparties.

Regulatory uncertainty also looms. The CFTC has been increasingly aggressive about treating prediction markets as derivatives, which would require burdensome compliance for retail participants.

Reality check: Prediction markets will expand significantly, but the "markets on everything" vision requires solving liquidity bootstrapping and regulatory clarity. Both are harder than the technology.

The Overlooked Predictions Worth Watching

Beyond the headline themes, several quieter predictions deserve attention:

"From 'Code is Law' to 'Spec is Law'" — Daejun Park describes moving DeFi security from bug-hunting to proving global invariants through AI-assisted specification writing. This is unglamorous infrastructure work, but could dramatically reduce the $3.4 billion lost to hacks annually.

"The Invisible Tax on the Open Web" — Elizabeth Harkavy's warning that AI agents extracting content without compensating creators could break the internet's economic model is genuinely important. If AI strips the monetization layer from content while bypassing ads, something has to replace it.

"Trading as Way Station, Not Destination" — Arianna Simpson's advice that founders chasing immediate trading revenue miss defensible opportunities is probably the most honest prediction in the collection—and a tacit admission that much of crypto's current activity is speculation masquerading as utility.

What a16z Doesn't Want to Talk About

Conspicuously absent from the 17 predictions: any acknowledgment of the risks their bullish outlook ignores.

Memecoin fatigue is real. Over 13 million memecoins launched last year, but launches dropped 56% from January to September. The speculation engine that drove retail interest is sputtering.

Macro headwinds could derail everything. The predictions assume continued institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and technology deployment. A recession, a major exchange collapse, or aggressive regulatory action could reset the timeline by years.

The a16z portfolio effect is distorting. When a firm managing $46 billion in total AUM and $7.6 billion in crypto publishes predictions that benefit their investments, the market responds—creating self-fulfilling prophecies that don't reflect organic demand.

The Bottom Line

a16z's 17 predictions are best understood as a strategic document, not neutral analysis. They're telling you where they've placed their bets and why you should believe those bets will pay off.

That doesn't make them wrong. Many of these predictions—stablecoin growth, AI agent infrastructure, privacy upgrades—reflect genuine trends. The firm employs some of the smartest people in crypto and has a track record of identifying winning narratives early.

But sophisticated readers should apply a discount rate. Ask who benefits from each prediction. Consider which portfolio companies are positioned to capture value. Notice what's conspicuously absent.

The most valuable insight might be the implicit thesis underneath all 17 predictions: crypto's speculation era is ending, and infrastructure era is beginning. Whether that's hopeful thinking or accurate forecasting will be tested against reality in the coming year.


The 17 a16z Crypto Predictions for 2026 at a Glance:

  1. Better stablecoin on/offramps connecting digital dollars to payment systems
  2. Crypto-native RWA tokenization with perpetual futures and onchain origination
  3. Stablecoins enabling bank ledger upgrades without rewriting legacy systems
  4. The internet becoming financial infrastructure through programmable settlement
  5. AI-powered wealth management accessible to everyone
  6. KYA (Know Your Agent) cryptographic identity for AI agents
  7. AI models performing doctoral-level research autonomously
  8. Addressing AI's "invisible tax" on open web content
  9. Privacy as the ultimate competitive moat for blockchains
  10. Decentralized messaging resistant to quantum threats
  11. Secrets-as-a-Service for programmable data access control
  12. "Spec is Law" replacing "Code is Law" in DeFi security
  13. Prediction markets expanding beyond elections
  14. Staked media replacing feigned journalistic neutrality
  15. SNARKs enabling verifiable cloud computing
  16. Trading as a way station, not destination, for builders
  17. Legal architecture matching technical architecture in crypto regulation

This article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. The author holds no positions in a16z portfolio companies discussed in this article.