Bitcoin's Worst Q1 Since 2018: Will April's 69% Win Rate Survive Liberation Day Tariffs?
April always arrives with a historical tailwind for Bitcoin. Since 2013, April has been green 69% of the time, with a median return of +7.1%. But 2026's April begins with a new wildcard that no historical model has ever priced: "Liberation Day," the most aggressive trade tariff package in a century, landing on April 2.
Bitcoin just posted its worst quarterly performance since Q1 2018, falling 23.8% from $87,508 to $66,619 — the third-worst Q1 in its history, behind only Mt. Gox's fallout in 2014 (-37.4%) and the ICO bubble collapse in 2018 (-49.7%). Retail sentiment hit a Fear & Greed Index reading of 5 in February, an all-time low exceeding even the FTX collapse in 2022. Yet the quarter also saw $9.27 billion in crypto venture funding, eleven firms filing for national trust bank charters with the OCC, and the SEC-CFTC classifying 16 tokens as digital commodities for the first time ever.
The question entering April isn't whether Bitcoin is in bad shape. It's whether April's consistent historical recovery can repeat itself when a 34% China tariff, a 10% universal import baseline, and rising Treasury yields are pulling in the opposite direction.