The Network State: How to Start a New Country by Balaji Srinivasan
Balaji Srinivasan’s The Network State: How to Start a New Country (2022) is a manifesto that argues modern technology enables the creation of new, virtual-first sovereign communities. Srinivasan lays out a chapter-by-chapter case for why traditional nation-states are failing and how “network states” – highly aligned online communities that aggregate into real-world polities – could emerge as their successors. Below is a detailed summary and analysis of each chapter, highlighting the major arguments, frameworks, key proposals, and examples, as well as how these ideas interconnect across the book.
Chapter 1: Quickstart – Defining the Network State and Its Blueprint
Chapter 1 introduces the concept of the “network state” and provides a high-level blueprint for creating one. Srinivasan defines a network state as “a highly aligned online community with a capacity for collective action that crowdfunds territory around the world and eventually gains diplomatic recognition from pre-existing states.” In essence, unlike a traditional state defined by contiguous territory, a network state is defined by its people and their shared purpose, enabled by the internet. This chapter contrasts the structure of network states with legacy nation-states: a nation-state is bounded by geography, whereas a network state is geographically decentralized – its members are distributed globally but connected via the internet and a unifying mission. The author even includes an illustrative “one image” dashboard of a hypothetical million-citizen network state: it appears as an archipelago of populated nodes around the world, with a running count of its total population, income, and land area. For example, the book presents a mock-up showing scattered clusters in cities like Tokyo, Mumbai, New York, etc., all linked as one community (see figure), emphasizing that a network state is cloud-based and only later anchors in physical space. This “cloud first, land last” ethos (start digital, then materialize physically) is a core principle.
Key Proposal – Seven Steps to Start a New Country: Srinivasan outlines a step-by-step framework for building a network state, analogizing it to founding a startup. He argues that creating a new society from scratch is easier than reforming legacy states weighed down by historical baggage. The path, summarized in seven broad steps, is as follows:
- Found a “startup society” – Begin with an online community united by a common vision or One Commandment (a single moral principle – a concept later detailed). Anyone can start such a community, just as anyone can found a company or cryptocurrency. The founder’s legitimacy is proven simply by others choosing to join and follow the project.
- Organize it into a “network union” – Convert the loose community into a group capable of collective action. This means coordinating members for their mutual benefit, much like a traditional union but not tied to a single employer or locale. The network union gives the community “organizational muscle,” allowing it to act in unison (for example, lobbying for a cause, pooling resources, or defending members) rather than being just a social media group. Srinivasan terms this “unionization” the key step that turns an online crowd into a coherent polity.
- Build trust offline and a crypto-economy online – Start holding in-person meetups and gatherings to strengthen social bonds and trust among members, while simultaneously creating an internal economy using cryptocurrency. In other words, members of the community should begin transacting, sharing funds, or trading via a native digital currency or token. This step establishes economic interdependence and real-world camaraderie. For example, the community might host regular events or co-working spaces, and use crypto tokens for voting or rewards. Srinivasan emphasizes using blockchain to secure these interactions, since a blockchain provides an immutable ledger for the community’s records (identity, transactions, votes).
- Crowdfund physical “nodes” – Once the community is cohesive and has amassed some capital, begin acquiring physical spaces for members. These nodes could be apartments, houses, co-living facilities, or even entire neighborhoods – anywhere members can live together or meet periodically. The idea is to materialize the community in the real world by creating hubs where the digital citizens can gather. Srinivasan gives examples of crowdfunding everything from single apartments up to towns. Over time, the community will own an archipelago of properties distributed globally, rather than one contiguous territory.
- Digitally connect the distributed nodes – Link these physical enclaves into one networked whole – a “network archipelago”. Members across all locations remain in constant communication via the internet, and a shared cryptographic passport or membership system is used to grant access to physical sites. Augmented or mixed reality tools can overlay a sense of unity, blurring the line between the online community and its on-ground homes. In short, even though members might be spread across dozens of cities, they function as one population through digital connectivity. (In the figure above, this is visualized by dotted lines connecting nodes worldwide.)
- Conduct an on-chain census & show metrics – As the community grows in population and wealth, perform a cryptographically audited census to publicly prove its scale. This means using the blockchain and other verification methods to publish real-time data about the network state’s membership count, economic output, and land holdings. Srinivasan suggests a level of radical transparency here: just as a startup shows user growth, a network state would continuously broadcast its “net worth and number of members” to gain credibility. This step is about demonstrating traction: if thousands of people are already voluntarily part of the community and collectively own significant property and income, it strengthens the case that this entity is “real” and should be taken seriously. (He explicitly compares it to how Bitcoin went from being dismissed to, over time, achieving recognition as legal tender.)
- Gain diplomatic recognition – Finally, seek recognition from at least one existing sovereign state for the community’s autonomy. This could start with small steps – for instance, negotiating a status like an autonomous zone, a charter city arrangement, or simply establishing formal relations with a country as an experimental “digital nation.” The ultimate goal is incremental sovereignty, potentially culminating in recognition by the United Nations. Srinivasan notes that if a startup society grows to millions of citizens and a multi-billion-dollar economy, it will have leverage to negotiate recognition “just as Bitcoin has now become a bona fide national currency” (referring to nations like El Salvador adopting Bitcoin). Diplomatic recognition is the capstone that transforms a mere community into a true network state, granting it the legal standing to enter treaties, trade internationally, and protect its members.
This seven-step roadmap is one of the major frameworks in the book. Srinivasan frames it as the “seventh method” of founding a country, contrasting it with six traditional (and mostly unsuccessful or undesirable) methods: election, revolution, war, micronations, seasteading, and space colonization. All those either rely on violence or face impractical odds, whereas a network state can be built peacefully and incrementally like a startup. A recurring example he gives is the analogy to the Jewish diaspora and Zionism: a network state is like a “reversed diaspora” – instead of an ethnic or religious group dispersed by history, it’s a self-selected group of people coming together by choice around a principle and then dispersing themselves strategically to acquire land. Eventually, like historical diasporas that founded new nations (e.g. Israel for the Jewish people), a network state aims to coalesce into a sovereign entity.
Why pursue a network state? Srinivasan’s argument is normative as well as practical. He believes current nation-states are stuck in their past – their laws and institutions can’t easily adapt to the fast-changing digital era because they are constrained by historical borders, legacy constitutions, and entrenched interests. By contrast, a newly created state can start with a clean slate morally, legally, and technologically. “Creating > reforming,” he writes pointedly. Throughout this chapter, he stresses that technology (internet platforms, cryptocurrencies, remote coordination tools) has lowered the barriers to starting new scaled communities, much as it lowered barriers for entrepreneurs to start new companies. Anyone with a computer can “start a country” in the cloud now – a provocative but central claim of the book.
As an example of credibility through growth, Srinivasan invokes Bitcoin’s trajectory: early on it was mocked and ignored, but as it gained users and value it forced governments to acknowledge it. Similarly, a “startup society” that grows to millions of members and significant wealth can compel recognition. He also points to Estonia’s e-residency and “cloud citizenship” initiatives as harbingers of partial digital nationhood, and cites experiments like seasteading (floating communities) and charter cities as parallel efforts to escape the constraints of current political geography. These examples illustrate that the demand for new governance models is real, and network states are his proposed solution. By the end of Chapter 1, the reader has a clear vision that a network state starts as a social network and ends as a new country, and the rest of the book will elaborate why this is needed and how it intersects with history and geopolitics.
Chapter 2: History as Trajectory – The Moral and Technological Origins of New Societies
Chapter 2 zooms out to a historical and philosophical perspective. Srinivasan argues that to build a new state one must first understand how history made current states what they are, and identify the moral failures of present regimes that a new community could address. In other words, a startup society needs a moral justification for its existence – a reason it can claim to be “better” than the status quo. This chapter provides a conceptual toolkit: it examines how history is recorded (and distorted), how power and truth interact, and how societal paradigms shift over time. It culminates in the idea that new states should be founded on a single, clear moral innovation – dubbed “One Commandment” – which serves as their lodestar.
The role of history and moral purpose: Srinivasan begins by noting that “a startup country starts with a moral issue”, unlike a startup company which starts with a tech innovation. Since a new country asks people to join a new social contract, it must claim a moral high ground or solve a “moral deficit” in existing society. The founder’s job is twofold: (1) explain what moral failing or problem in today’s world the new community will fix, and (2) provide historical examples or precedents where this problem was absent or solved, to prove that a better society is possible. This sets the stage for the One Commandment concept – one guiding principle that the new state will uphold in contrast to legacy states. Srinivasan emphasizes history because, as he lists, history underpins legitimacy: people use historical arguments to win debates, justify laws (every regulation has a story behind it), and derive morality (major religions are rooted in historical narratives). Crucially, “history is written by the winners,” meaning our understanding of the past is often a product of power, not truth. This leads him to stress that a fresh reading of history (or even a re-recording of history using new tools) is needed to chart a new trajectory.
Microhistory vs. Macrohistory: To illustrate how we might get a clearer picture of truth, Srinivasan distinguishes microhistory (small-scale, reproducible historical experiments) from macrohistory (the grand, one-time trajectory of world events). He likens microhistory to something like “the history of a chess game” – something that can be repeated and analyzed statistically – whereas macrohistory is like the chaotic flow of all human affairs that we can’t rerun as an experiment. The larger point is that the more data and the more granular our understanding (the more we turn macro-problems into micro-analyses), the better we can learn and predict. History as usually told is too coarse-grained and often wrong or biased. “If the news is fake, imagine history,” he quips later in the chapter – meaning if media today can distort reality, then surely our history books (written under various regimes) might be full of distortions too.
Srinivasan sees blockchain ledgers and digital records as a breakthrough for recording truthful microhistories. “This is where Bitcoin becomes interesting. It’s the most accurate form of record because it (almost) cannot be falsified.” A public blockchain, which logs transactions or events transparently and tamper-proof, could serve as an immutable history for a community, as opposed to traditional archives that authorities can alter or censor. He envisions future historians sifting through on-chain logs to understand what really happened, rather than relying solely on state-approved documents. This is a recurring theme: technological truth vs. political power. In current systems, “political power triumphs over (tech) truth” – governments and media can spin or suppress facts. For example, Srinivasan notes how officials often use atrocity narratives to justify war or crackdowns (citing how both the Soviet Union and U.S. have cherry-picked historical wrongs to claim moral authority). To counter this, he advocates for a “bottom-up, cryptographic history” – a ledger of events that is distributed and verifiable, beyond any one winner’s control.
He surveys a range of historical models to draw insight from many lenses. These include: technological determinism (tech drives history forward), the helix model (history is cyclical and linear – “the same things happen over and over but with better technology”), the Ozymandias model (civilizations can collapse entirely), the “Great Founder” or tech tree model (great individuals make history, but only within the limits of what technology exists at the time), and even opposing heuristics like the “train crash” vs. “idea maze” models (either ignorance of history dooms us to repeat it, or excessive knowledge of history can stifle innovation because people think “that failed before” when conditions have changed). The details of each model are less important than the conclusion he draws: both political narratives and technological realities shape history. He asserts that “political incentives favor propagating useful narratives, while technological incentives favor truths that work”. A successful new state must harmonize these – embrace rational, data-driven “tech truth” without neglecting the power of narrative and identity (the “nation” side of nation-state). This balance between nationalism (social cohesion around a story) and rationalism (hard truths and science) is presented as essential.
God, State, Network – The Evolving Leviathans: One of the chapter’s most striking frameworks is the idea that society’s overarching authority, the Leviathan (a term from Hobbes), has changed form over time: from God to the State to, now, the Network. Srinivasan sketches this progression:
- God as Leviathan (the age of religion): For centuries, religious belief was the highest authority that kept order – people behaved because of divine oversight and fear of hell. The community of the faithful (the “People of God”) was primary. He cites Nietzsche’s “God is dead” to mark how this waned in the 1800s as elites lost their fear of divine punishment.
- State as Leviathan (the age of nationalism): With secularization, the nation-state took God’s place in the 19th and 20th centuries. Now “if you committed a crime, God wouldn’t punish you – but the State certainly would.” The “People of the State” (citizens bound by patriotism and law) became the defining identity. This era saw the rise of industrial warfare and world wars – the violent apotheosis of state power.
- Network as Leviathan (the digital age): Today, Srinivasan argues, both the old religious order and the post-WWII nation-state order are eroding. “The next Leviathan is the Network – the Internet and the crypto network.” In a world of ubiquitous connectivity, he who controls the network (or algorithm) wields power. “If you commit a crime, the network will punish you,” he suggests, meaning that deplatforming, digital surveillance, or smart contract code could enforce rules where police used to. He even asserts, provocatively, “Today, the most powerful force isn’t God or the US Army. It’s the blockchain.” This is because strong encryption and decentralized ledgers limit what states can do – “Encryption > state violence,” since a government cannot brute-force break modern crypto and thus cannot seize encrypted assets or spy on encrypted communication. Likewise, “crypto economy > fiat economy” (states can’t easily censor or inflate cryptocurrency) and “peer-to-peer > state media” (the internet routes around information gatekeepers). Srinivasan gives a flurry of “X > Y” comparisons: e.g., social > national (online social networks undermine geographically-bound civic unity), mobile > sessile (people can move more freely with smartphones/remote work, so borders are less binding), virtual reality > physical proximity (VR can create new worlds with their own rules, offering escape from local laws), smart contracts > legal contracts (code executes faster and more predictably than traditional law), cryptographic verification > official confirmation (blockchain truth vs. government claims). All these illustrate how technology can empower individuals and new groups at the expense of traditional state authority.
Importantly, Srinivasan does not claim the state is already obsolete – rather, we are in a transitional clash between network power and state power. He notes that states still have “teeth,” evidenced by things like the reach of the Chinese Communist Party or even Western governments’ ability to enforce lockdowns and censor information via Big Tech collaborations. He draws a parallel that the U.S. and China are each melding state and network power in different ways: The U.S. establishment informally coordinates with social networks and media (creating a de facto “woke” theocracy of censors and fact-checkers), whereas China’s regime explicitly controls tech and uses it for surveillance. In both cases, the lines between government and network are blurring. He terms an alliance of an existing state with network power a “network/state” (with a slash) and distinguishes “positive network/state” fusions – e.g. “El Salvador embracing Bitcoin” or Estonia’s e-governance (a government adopting network principles to empower citizens) – from negative network/state fusions like “China using tech to spy and control” or the U.S. government using Big Tech to quash dissent. These examples serve as warnings that if we don’t create new network states, existing states might co-opt networks for authoritarian ends.
Ultimately, Chapter 2 argues that for a network state to succeed, it must offer what neither God nor the State now fully offers: meaning. Srinivasan writes, “The network state offers greater efficiency and consent. But it doesn’t yet offer meaning. This is why you need a One Commandment.” In other words, while technology can provide the tools (efficiency, cryptographic security, decentralized consensus), people still crave a shared purpose or moral vision (the kind religions or grand political ideologies provided). One Commandment is his term for the innovative moral rule or principle that each new startup society should adopt to bind its members. Just as major religions had Ten Commandments, he cheekily says a startup society only needs one – a single key idea that “other countries have missed” and which is historically and scientifically true.
Illustrative examples of One Commandment communities: Srinivasan gives concrete examples of possible startup societies, each defined by their “one commandment”:
- The Cancel-Proof Society: A purely digital network union devoted to the principle that cancel culture is wrong. Its One Commandment might be “Thou shalt not cancel others for speech.” In practice, this community could form a solidarity network that comes to the defense of any member who is mobbed or deplatformed online. The author notes this could start as just a Discord group that mobilizes support whenever someone is unfairly canceled – a small-scale moral community enforcing free speech norms.
- Keto Kosher (Anti-Sugar Society): A network archipelago (digital + physical) built around the idea that sugar is a poison to modern health. Its moral stance: “Sugar is bad” (much like some religions prohibit certain foods). Members commit to a ketogenic/low-carb lifestyle, and the community would crowdfund apartments or even towns where sugar and processed foods are banned at the “border”. This tongue-in-cheek example shows a health-based One Commandment – a reaction to the obesity epidemic and a critique of nations’ public health failures. The name “Keto Kosher” implies a quasi-religious approach to diet (kosher laws for sugar).
- The Digital Sabbath Society: A community asserting that constant connectivity is harmful. One Commandment: “Regularly unplug from the internet.” It might operate retreats or residential areas where internet access is cut off at certain hours, enforcing periodic digital fasting. This addresses the workaholic, screen-addicted pace of modern life – a moral stance on tech usage itself.
- “Your Body, Your Choice” – The Post-FDA Society: A more radical example aimed at personal freedom in healthcare. Its core principle: individuals should have the absolute right to buy or sell any medical product (complete medical libertarianism). To actually practice this, such a community would need diplomatic recognition and a legal jurisdiction (a “sanctuary” city or enclave) because it flouts existing drug and safety laws. Srinivasan suggests this as an example of a network state that does acquire recognition to allow a controversial freedom – effectively creating an opt-in regulatory regime for its citizens.
These examples underscore how a network state’s legitimacy comes from fulfilling a moral or policy niche that existing states ignore or mishandle. They also show how Chapters 1 and 2 interconnect: Chapter 1 gave the mechanics of forming a network state, and Chapter 2 provides the animating spirit (the mission or cause). Srinivasan’s view is that a successful new country will be born not just from tech savvy, but from “moral entrepreneurship” – identifying a societal problem (health, speech, governance, etc.) and rallying people who passionately want a solution.
In summary, Chapter 2 lays the philosophical groundwork: it critiques how nations derive moral authority from curated history and shows that in the internet age those narratives are breaking down (“if the news is fake…history?”). It then posits that new, internet-native communities can use technology (blockchains, encryption) to establish truth and trust, but they must also supply meaning via a clear moral proposition. This sets the stage for the more contemporary analyses in the next chapters, which explain the current geopolitical “moment” and future scenarios that make room for network states.
Chapter 3: The Tripolar Moment – U.S., China, and Bitcoin as Competing Powers
Where Chapter 2 looked at the past to justify new states, Chapter 3 analyzes the present world order, contending that we are in a “tripolar” moment in which three major factions compete for global influence. Srinivasan identifies these poles as: (1) the American establishment (and its attendant media/cultural ideology), (2) the Chinese Communist Party (authoritarian state capitalism), and (3) the decentralized crypto network (epitomized by Bitcoin and web3 communities). Each represents a different organizing principle – respectively, “Woke Capitalism” or liberal democracy (though Srinivasan is critical of its current trajectory), Communist/State Capitalism, and Decentralized Technological Capitalism. This chapter’s key argument is that virtually everyone will have to navigate between these three power centers, and that none of them alone offers a universally appealing future. This context is crucial because it illustrates the void that network states could fill (a fourth alternative or a neutral ground). It also introduces conceptual frameworks like “moral vs. martial vs. money power” and how legitimacy is earned in each domain.
Three poles – NYT, CCP, BTC: Srinivasan often labels the poles with shorthand symbols. In a memorable table, he compares:
- The “NYT” (New York Times) faction – the American establishment. Here “NYT” stands for the Western media and institutional elite that shape narrative and policy in the U.S. and allied countries. He calls this the “woke capital” ideology: a blend of capitalist economics with progressive (sometimes censorious) social values, coupled with U.S. military power (“drone-strike democracy” as he sardonically terms it). The source of truth for this pole is “The New York Times” – i.e., mainstream media and academia define what is true and acceptable. Its economy runs on the U.S. dollar (USD) and its legitimacy on liberal democratic claims (though Srinivasan argues it has become a largely unaccountable bureaucracy).
- The “CCP” faction – China’s one-party state. Its source of truth is “The Party” (top-down dictates and censored information). Its economy is the controlled Yuan/RMB system. Its ideology is centralized or nationalist capitalism (nominally communist, but effectively Han Chinese nationalism plus state-directed market economics). This pole emphasizes martial power (hard power, surveillance, territorial control) and nationalist unity. Srinivasan describes it as a network too – the Party has ~95 million members, a “network” that permeates Chinese society and even requires a rigorous application (essays on Marxism, sponsor vouches, probation period) to join. In effect, the CCP is like a massive ideological union that is distinct from the Chinese state it controls – that’s why he calls it a “martial network” rather than just a state apparatus.
- The “BTC” faction – the cryptocurrency and web3 ecosystem. Its source of truth is “the protocol” – open-source blockchain consensus (what the ledger says is true). Its economy is cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin foremost, but also others). Its ideology is decentralized digital libertarianism, which Srinivasan frames as neutral or “aracial libertarianism” (since anyone can join, and the system doesn’t see race or nationality). This pole has money power at its core – it’s challenging the monopoly of money creation and transaction held by states. It’s also building a new media ecosystem: he notes that Bitcoin and crypto communities are starting to create their own news channels, social networks, and influencers, meaning over time they could rival institutions like the NYT in shaping public opinion.
Srinivasan’s tripolar model is a conceptual framework highlighting a shift from a unipolar or bipolar Cold War world to a new triangle of power. In 1990, after the USSR fell, the world was unipolar under the U.S. Now (2020s), he says even the U.S. internally is “bipolar” (split between two domestic factions), and the world is tripolar. The domestic U.S. split is important: one could say the American establishment itself has two wings – one more aligned with the “NYT/woke” worldview and another sympathetic to the crypto, decentralized ethos (think tech libertarians, Bitcoin enthusiasts, etc.). This foreshadows his later point that a U.S. internal conflict could arise between those two visions.
Moral, Martial, and Monetary Power: In a historical analogy, Srinivasan compares the current trio to roles played in the 20th century. He claims in the 1900s: “the moral power was the USSR, the money power was the US, and the martial power was the Nazis”. That is, communism wielded ideological/moral appeal (at least to some, as an idea of justice), the U.S. wielded financial might, and Nazi Germany tragically wielded raw military force. All three were states. Today, he says, “these powers are networks”:
- NYT-led network as Moral Power: It’s not a state but a conglomerate of media, universities, NGOs – a network that claims moral authority (e.g., human rights, democracy rhetoric) and can pressure governments by shaping public opinion. Srinivasan describes the New York Times (symbolic of mainstream media) as “the moral network” in the sense that it positions itself as the arbiter of truth and virtue, “holding governments to account”. However, he criticizes that “their articles aren’t factual, but moral” – implying an activist slant – and likens NYT-driven cancellation campaigns to the USSR’s ideological purges (“cancels ‘for democracy’ much as Soviets destroyed lives ‘for the greater good’”).
- CCP as Martial Network: While the CCP obviously controls a state (China), Srinivasan emphasizes it operates like a networked organization that transcends a normal government bureaucracy. With nearly 100 million members all pledged to an ideology, it’s a Party-network that has cells in every company, region, and even abroad. The CCP demands intense loyalty and is structured more like a massive union or fraternity than a typical political party (he illustrates this with the detailed application process). He labels it the “martial power” of today because under Xi Jinping it has become very military- and control-focused, building hard power and a surveillance state.
- Bitcoin/Crypto as Money Network: Bitcoin began as just code, but it spawned a global community that is leaderless, borderless, yet aligned by a protocol – a true network. Its power started in money (finance) but is expanding into media and technology. Srinivasan notes Bitcoin is “becoming a media network” too, as many companies and creators in the crypto space create content, propagate memes (like the Bitcoin community’s narratives about freedom), and challenge mainstream media accounts. In the long run, this network could even “take over the NYT” in influence, he suggests, because it unites financial incentive with information distribution.
Having laid out the trio, Srinivasan explores how each legitimizes itself and how they conflict. In Section 3.5 “Submission, Sympathy, Sovereignty,” he summarizes each faction’s mode of persuasion or ideology of power:
- The CCP’s message to people (especially domestically) is essentially “Submit to me, I am more powerful”. It’s raw power and authority – legitimacy through strength and delivering stability/prosperity (at the cost of freedom). This is a straightforward authoritarian bargain.
- The NYT/Woke message is “You are guilty (an oppressor), so you must sympathize with and yield to the victims”. This encapsulates the social justice or “woke” rationale that demands moral submission: people in the West are told to atone for various historical or identity-based injustices by empowering certain groups and silencing others. Srinivasan sees this as a form of control via moralizing and shaming, quite opposite to the CCP’s approach, but similarly demanding obedience (to the ever-changing moral narrative).
- The BTC/Crypto ethos says “Empower yourself and escape control – claim sovereignty as an individual”. It’s practically the opposite of the other two: where CCP wants obedience and NYT faction wants contrition, the crypto world tells people to take responsibility for their own fate (hold your own keys, be your own bank, speak freely on uncensorable platforms). It’s a very libertarian, “don’t tread on me” ideal of sovereignty, appealing especially to those who feel stifled by the other two poles.
Given such divergent values, conflict is inevitable. In Section 3.6 “Conflicts and Alliances,” Srinivasan outlines how the poles might clash or align. He acknowledges that each bloc also has internal dissenters: e.g., within the NYT camp, not all Westerners are “woke” – there are moderate liberals or libertarians in America who dislike cancel culture (he calls them “non-woke Democratic voters”). Within China, there are capitalists or liberals who preferred the more open China of decades past (before Xi’s heavy-handed turn). Within crypto, there are people who are not maximalists (they might hold Bitcoin but also trust some institutions). So these sub-factions could create shifting alliances.
He posits that many countries or groups outside the U.S.-China duopoly will be pressured to choose a side – and if they reject both, “they’ll naturally join BTC” by default. This foreshadows Chapter 4’s idea of an “International Intermediate” alliance. We already see glimmers: for instance, some smaller countries (like El Salvador or certain Eastern European and African nations) are exploring Bitcoin or decentralized tech to reduce reliance on either superpower’s systems. Srinivasan is essentially predicting a realignment where the third pole (decentralized network) becomes a refuge or rallying point for those who want neither an American-led nor Chinese-led order.
In summary, Chapter 3 uses geopolitical analysis to set the stage for why network states might gain adherents. The world is no longer united under a single model of liberal democracy; it’s fracturing into (at least) three visions, and this chaos creates an opening for startup societies. Notably, Srinivasan’s framing casts the U.S. establishment in a critical light similar to how one might criticize the Chinese regime – he sees both as hegemonic forces (one using soft power and moralism, the other using surveillance and nationalism) that ultimately demand conformity. This underscores a recurring theme: exit versus voice. Instead of taking a side in the US-vs-China (or left-vs-right) battles, Srinivasan advocates exiting to a new system – building opt-in societies enabled by crypto tech. Chapter 3’s tripolar world description is the strategic backdrop for that: those dissatisfied with both East and West will look for an “exit” option, which network states aim to provide.
Chapter 4: Decentralization, Recentralization – Future Scenarios and the Case for a New Center
In Chapter 4, Srinivasan turns toward the future, exploring possible scenarios for how the tensions outlined in Chapter 3 could play out. The title “Decentralization, Recentralization” reflects a core insight: history may be entering a phase of fragmentation (decentralization of power away from the old nation-state status quo), but this could be followed by a “recentralization” around new structures – potentially the network states. He describes various futures (American anarchy, Chinese control, etc.) and introduces the concept of an “International Intermediate” – a new centrist alignment of those who reject both U.S. wokeism and Chinese authoritarianism. This “Intermediate” essentially foreshadows a coalition of network states or allied polities that form a new world order. The chapter is rich with speculative thought experiments, but they all serve to reinforce why building new decentralized states is both necessary and plausible amid global upheaval.
Multiple Futures, Not One: Srinivasan prefaces that unlike deterministic futurists, he sees many “possible futures” because outcomes depend on human action – “we have the power to build it”. He cautions against linear predictions, citing four factors that increase uncertainty:
- Volatility: The internet and social media have introduced high social volatility (trends, panics, and movements can spike suddenly), and cryptocurrencies introduce high economic volatility. So rapid swings or unforeseen events (e.g., viral mobilizations, market crashes) are more likely. Example: a hashtag could ignite nationwide protests overnight, or a crypto collapse could destabilize economies – wildcards that make the future less predictable.
- Reflexivity: People’s beliefs about the system feed back into the system. If everyone expects chaos, they might act in ways that cause chaos (self-fulfilling prophecy). If people anticipate a government crackdown, they might preemptively exit, causing the very instability that provokes a crackdown. This loop makes straightforward prediction harder – any forecast can change the behavior of those who hear it.
- Competing Curves: There are multiple technologies and social movements developing concurrently – the network state may not be the only solution. Maybe AI, or a strong AI-ruled state, or some other unforeseen innovation could dominate instead. Srinivasan acknowledges the network state is one contender among many, not an inevitability.
- Limits of predictability: Aside from physics or closed systems, social prediction is fraught. He echoes the maxim “all models are wrong, but some are useful”, implying we should treat his scenarios as sketches, not certainties.
Despite these caveats, he identifies a trend: the collision of the three poles (US, China, Crypto) and the rise of network states out of the turmoil. In other words, global volatility may shake loose the old order, and something like network states could recentralize stability in a new form. He calls this emerging pole the “Recentralized Center” or “International Intermediate”. This is basically everyone who wants to avoid both extremes of the existing superpowers. It includes countries, organizations, and individuals who might band together around a new model of governance that values freedom, technological progress, and voluntary association (versus the coercion or ideological conformity demanded by the other poles). The way to unite these disparate actors, he says, is innovating something better – effectively offering a positive vision that outcompetes the US/China models. This positive vision is precisely what the network state embodies in Srinivasan’s view: a society with greater democracy (or voluntary entry/exit) than China and greater cultural cohesion and technological competence than a polarized United States.
To better understand the drivers of change, Srinivasan introduces two sets of “axes”: sociopolitical axes and technoeconomic axes. These are lenses to examine emerging divisions that don’t map cleanly onto old left-right politics or East-West geography:
-
Sociopolitical Axes: One example he gives is “International Indians” – highlighting India’s rise. India is modernizing fast, producing many tech entrepreneurs, and has a 5-million strong diaspora in the West that is often quite influential. He suggests India (and its global network of expatriates) will be a key player in the new alignment. This hints that India might align with neither US nor China fully, potentially gravitating to a third path or being pivotal in the Intermediate coalition. Another sociopolitical axis is Transhumanists vs. Anarcho-Primitivists: essentially, those who enthusiastically embrace technology’s modification of humanity (think biohackers, AI enthusiasts, World Economic Forum types) versus those who reject modern tech to return to simpler living (think eco-radicals, Amish-like movements). Notably, both camps come in left- and right-wing variants, meaning the traditional left-right spectrum is scrambled on this issue. For instance, a left-transhumanist might push for technocratic control (as in some WEF ideas), while a right-transhumanist might be a libertarian biohacker; conversely, a right-wing anarcho-primitivist might be a survivalist, while a left-wing one might be an anti-tech green activist. By mentioning this, Srinivasan shows that new ideological cleavages are forming that transcend nationality – people around the world align with or against technology’s trajectory. A network state could explicitly cater to one of these philosophies (imagine a transhumanist network state experimenting with gene editing freedoms, or a neo-luddite network state that bans certain tech). Finally, he introduces the Identity Stack concept: each person has multiple layers of identity (nationality, religion, city, profession, hobbies, online communities, etc.), but one tends to dominate as their primary loyalty. In an age of mobile, networked lives, that primary identity might not be their country anymore – it could be an online community, an ideology, or something else. “Everyone is patriotic about at least one thing,” he writes – be it their nation, or Bitcoin, or a subculture. For a startup society to succeed, it needs to rank high in someone’s identity stack – ideally become their top identity (“I am first and foremost a citizen of X Network State”). This ties back to the One Commandment idea: a strong moral cause can elevate a network state to primary importance in members’ hearts, beyond their old nationality.
-
Technoeconomic Axes: Here, Srinivasan discusses how technology (especially the internet) is amplifying variability in outcomes – we get bigger booms and busts socially and financially. “The internet increases variance” in everything. He compares social media’s effect to the Soviet policy of glasnost (sudden free speech) and crypto’s effect to perestroika (market liberalization) – reforms that introduced instability in the USSR, ultimately contributing to its collapse. By analogy, the openness and freedom of the internet might be destabilizing today’s ossified institutions (which were not built to handle so much free flow of information and capital). Indeed, “Few institutions born before the Internet will survive it,” he declares, because the digital world is now primary and many legacy structures are crumbling under digital pressure. One striking line: “Now it’s not just about remote work, but remote life.” The pandemic proved that education, work, commerce, even governance can happen largely online – meaning geography is less determinant. He points out that by 2020, essentially all sectors (even ones like medicine, government, education that resisted digitization) were forced to go online due to COVID. This accelerated the trend that “all value is digital” or at least digitally mediated. Yet, he observes a paradox: despite advanced tech, productivity in the physical world has stagnated or even declined (e.g., construction is slower, infrastructure projects are mired in red tape). He lists theories for this “Great Stagnation”:
- The Great Distraction: We save time with tech in one area only to waste it on social media and entertainment.
- The Great Dissipation: Regulatory and compliance burdens eat up all the gains (lots of paperwork, legal hoops).
- The Great Dilemma: Culture and law now require years of study and process before building anything (overcautiousness), slowing innovation.
- The Great Dumbness: We have the tech, but institutions make foolish decisions (e.g., contrast China building a train station in 9 hours versus Western projects taking years).
- The Great Delay: Perhaps gains are real but just taking time to materialize fully – once we automate everything, productivity will leap, but we’re in a transition.
This discussion, while somewhat tangential, reinforces why new governance approaches might be needed: maybe current governments are the ones causing the Great Dissipation and Delay with bureaucracy and outdated rules. A network state starting fresh could optimize for efficiency and actually realize the promise of high-tech productivity by cutting through legacy inertia. It also underscores that people are frustrated – they sense technological progress but don’t see it in their everyday life (affordable housing, faster transport, etc.), leading to political disillusionment. A network state could be a proving ground for doing things differently – e.g., a charter city that builds ultramodern infrastructure in a fraction of the time by bypassing old regulations, or a cloud community that coordinates R&D faster.
After analyzing these axes, Srinivasan moves to explicit scenarios in Sections 4.5 and 4.6:
American Anarchy, Chinese Control, International Intermediate (Section 4.5): He paints three big scenarios:
-
American Anarchy: The United States, due to extreme polarization and institutional decay, could spiral into civil conflict – essentially a second civil war. He bullet-points why: polarization is at a peak, federal authority is distrusted, economic conditions are worsening, social media amplifies envy and hatred, states (like red vs blue states) are increasingly defiant of federal mandates, etc.. A particularly interesting point: he suggests a Bitcoin seizure by a bankrupt U.S. government could be a trigger for conflict. If the U.S. tried to outlaw or confiscate cryptocurrency (to prop up the dollar or for control), crypto-aligned citizens might literally rebel, since many of them are deeply ideologically committed to financial freedom. In his framing, “the woke state” (the establishment) and “the Bitcoin maximalists” are on a collision course if things get dire. This is speculative, but it highlights how the crypto network (pole 3 from Chapter 3) could come into direct conflict with the U.S. pole on U.S. soil. Srinivasan clearly hopes to avoid this violent outcome (hence building peaceful opt-out network states), but he’s warning it’s possible.
-
Chinese Control: In China, he imagines an opposite but equally dystopian outcome – total techno-totalitarianism. Perhaps triggered by an attempted coup or internal unrest, the CCP clamps down even harder, locking the country into a high-surveillance, AI-driven dictatorship that then exports its model abroad. He lists signs: Xi Jinping already purged rivals across the spectrum (from liberals in Hong Kong to corrupt officials to tech billionaires – showing the Party tolerates no challenge). China has been developing a comprehensive surveillance stack (mandatory digital yuan that can be frozen, health QR codes that control movement, “smart city” kits including cameras and facial recognition) and has pilot tested them during COVID lockdowns. If this architecture gets locked in and “sold to other states”, many authoritarian-leaning governments around the world might adopt Chinese surveillance tech and methods (some are already doing so). The result is a planet where large regions operate like CCP franchises – a nightmare for freedom. Srinivasan does note a twist: Chinese population might accept this outcome due to rising nationalism (they trust their government more now than in the past), so externally it’s scary but internally it could be stable, at least for a time.
-
International Intermediate: This is Srinivasan’s preferred scenario – a third grouping emerges composed of everyone who doesn’t want scenario 1 or 2. He calls it the “Recentralized Center” or simply “the II” (International Intermediate). This would include certain nations (potentially India, parts of Europe, maybe some in Latin America or Africa), as well as millions of individuals globally, and crucially the network states and startup societies being built. They align to uphold a different order that values decentralization but avoids both the chaos of anarchy and the oppression of dictatorship. One can think of it as a new Non-Aligned Movement, but instead of being passive, it’s proactive in building a new system. The network state concept provides the blueprint for what they build: new communities with rule of law, rights, and technological sophistication, but without the baggage of the U.S. and Chinese systems. Srinivasan frames this not as pure decentralization (which he equates with a kind of anarchy), but as a