One post tagged with "macroeconomics"

In the world of high finance, some conversations are so critical they happen behind closed doors. At TOKEN2049 on October 1st, one such session is set to capture the industry's attention: “Goldman Sachs with Zoltan Pozsar: Macro & Crypto.” This isn't just another panel; it's a 30-minute fireside chat governed by Chatham House Rules, ensuring that the insights shared are candid, unfiltered, and unattributable.

The stage will feature two titans of finance: Zoltan Pozsar, founder of Ex Uno Plures and the intellectual architect of the "Bretton Woods III" thesis, alongside Timothy Moe, Partner and Co-Head of Asian Macro Research at Goldman Sachs. For attendees, this is a rare opportunity to hear a visionary macro strategist and a top-tier institutional investor debate the future of money, the waning dominance of the dollar, and the explosive role of digital assets.

The Speakers: A Visionary Meets an Institutional Powerhouse​

To understand the weight of this session, one must understand the speakers:

• Zoltan Pozsar: Widely regarded as one of Wall Street's most influential thinkers, Pozsar is a former senior adviser at the U.S. Treasury and strategist at the New York Fed. He is most famous for mapping the "shadow banking" system and, more recently, for his compelling "Bretton Woods III" thesis, which argues that we are shifting from a dollar-centric financial system to one based on "outside money" like commodities, gold, and potentially, crypto.
• Timothy Moe: A veteran of Asian markets, Moe leads Goldman Sachs' regional equity strategy, guiding the firm’s institutional clients through the complexities of 11 Asia-Pacific markets. With a career spanning decades at firms like Salomon Brothers and Jardine Fleming before becoming a partner at Goldman in 2006, Moe brings a grounded, practical perspective on how global macro trends translate into real-world investment decisions.

Pozsar’s Thesis: The Dawn of Bretton Woods III​

At the heart of the discussion is Pozsar’s transformative vision of the global financial order. He argues the world is moving away from a system built on "inside money" (fiat currencies and government debt) towards one underpinned by "outside money" – tangible assets outside the control of a single sovereign issuer.

His core arguments include:

• A Multipolar Monetary World: The era of absolute U.S. dollar dominance is ending. Pozsar foresees a system where the Chinese renminbi and the euro play larger roles in trade settlement, with gold re-emerging as a neutral reserve asset.
• Persistent Inflation and New Portfolios: Forget the inflation of the 1970s. Pozsar believes chronic under-investment in the real economy will keep prices high for the foreseeable future. This renders the traditional 60/40 stock/bond portfolio obsolete, leading him to suggest a new allocation: 20% cash, 40% equities, 20% bonds, and 20% commodities.
• De-Dollarization is Accelerating: Geopolitical fractures and Western sanctions have pushed nations like China to build parallel financial plumbing, using currency swap lines and gold exchanges to bypass the dollar framework.

Where Does Bitcoin Fit In?​

For the TOKEN2049 audience, the key question is how crypto fits into this new world. Pozsar's view is both intriguing and cautious.

He acknowledges that the core thesis of Bitcoin—a scarce, private, non-state form of money—aligns perfectly with his concept of "outside money." He appreciates that its value comes from being outside government control.

However, he raises a critical question: money has always been a public or public-private partnership. A purely private money with no state sanction is historically unprecedented. He humorously notes that Western central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) "miss the point," as they fail to offer the very non-inflatable, non-governmental properties that attract people to Bitcoin in the first place. His primary concern for Bitcoin remains the tail risk of a cryptographic failure, a technical vulnerability that physical gold doesn't share.

Bridging Theory and Action: The Goldman Sachs Perspective​

This is where Timothy Moe’s role becomes crucial. As a strategist for Goldman Sachs in Asia, Moe will be the bridge between Pozsar’s grand theories and the actionable questions on investors' minds. The discussion is expected to delve into:

• Asian Capital Flows: How will a multi-polar currency system affect trade and investment across Asia?
• Institutional Adoption: How do Asia's institutional investors view Bitcoin versus other commodities like gold?
• Portfolio Strategy: Does Pozsar’s 20/40/20/20 allocation model hold up under the scrutiny of Goldman's macro research?
• CBDCs in Asia: With Asian central banks leading the charge on digital currency experiments, how do they view the rise of private crypto?

Final Thoughts​

The "Goldman Sachs with Zoltan Pozsar" session is more than just a talk; it's a real-time glimpse into the strategic thinking shaping the future of finance. It brings together a prophet of a new monetary age with a pragmatic leader from the heart of the current system. The conversation promises to offer a nuanced, high-level perspective on whether crypto will be a footnote in financial history or a cornerstone of the emerging Bretton Woods III order. For anyone invested in the future of money, this is a dialogue not to be missed.