Stablecoins and the Trillion‑Dollar Payment Shift

perspectives from Paolo Ardoino, Charles Cascarilla and Rob Hadick

Background: Stablecoins are maturing into a payments rail

• Rapid growth: Stablecoins began as collateral for trading on crypto exchanges, but by mid‑2025 they had become an important part of global payments. The market cap of dollar‑denominated stablecoins exceeded US$210 billion by the end of 2024 and transaction volume reached US$26.1 trillion, growing 57 % year‑on‑year. McKinsey estimated that stablecoins settle roughly US$30 billion of transactions each day and their yearly transaction volume reached US$27 trillion – still less than 1 % of all money flows but rising quickly.
• Real payments, not just trading: The Boston Consulting Group estimates that 5–10 % (≈US$1.3 trillion) of stablecoin volumes at the end of 2024 were genuine payments such as cross‑border remittances and corporate treasury operations. Cross‑border remittances account for roughly 10 % of the transaction count. By early 2025 stablecoins were used for ≈3 % of the US$200 trillion cross‑border payments market, with capital‑markets use still less than 1 %.
• Drivers of adoption: Emerging markets: In countries where local currencies depreciate by 50–60 % per year, stablecoins provide a digital dollar for savers and businesses. Adoption is particularly strong in Turkey, Argentina, Vietnam, Nigeria and parts of Africa. Technology and infrastructure: New orchestration layers and payment service providers (e.g., Bridge, Conduit, MoneyGram/USDC via MoneyGram) link blockchains with bank rails, reducing friction and improving compliance. Regulation: The GENIUS Act (2025) established a U.S. federal framework for payment stablecoins. The law sets strict reserve, transparency and AML requirements and creates a Stablecoin Certification Review Committee to decide whether state regimes are "substantially similar". It allows state‑qualified issuers with less than US$10 billion in circulation to operate under state oversight when standards meet federal levels. This clarity encouraged legacy institutions such as Visa to test stablecoin‑funded international transfers, with Visa's Mark Nelsen noting that the GENIUS Act "changed everything" by legitimising stablecoins

Paolo Ardoino (CEO, Tether)

Vision: a “digital dollar for the unbanked”

• Scale and usage: Ardoino says USDT serves 500 million users across emerging markets; about 35 % use it as a savings account, and 60–70 % of transactions involve only stablecoins (not crypto trading). He emphasises that USDT is now “the most used digital dollar in the world” and acts as “the dollar for the last mile, for the unbanked”. Tether estimates that 60 % of its market‑cap growth comes from grassroots use in Asia, Africa and Latin America.
• Emerging‑market focus: Ardoino notes that in the U.S. the payment system already works well, so stablecoins offer only incremental benefits. In emerging economies, however, stablecoins improve payment efficiency by 30–40 % and protect savings from high inflation. He describes USDT as a financial lifeline in Turkey, Argentina and Vietnam where local currencies are volatile.
• Compliance and regulation: Ardoino publicly supports the GENIUS Act. In a 2025 Bankless interview he said the Act sets “a strong framework for domestic and foreign stablecoins” and that Tether, as a foreign issuer, intends to comply. He highlighted Tether’s monitoring systems and cooperation with over 250 law‑enforcement agencies, emphasising that high compliance standards help the industry mature. Ardoino expects the U.S. framework to become a template for other countries and predicted that reciprocal recognition would allow Tether’s offshore USDT to circulate widely.
• Reserves and profitability: Ardoino underscores that Tether’s tokens are fully backed by cash and equivalents. He said the company holds about US$125 billion in U.S. Treasuries and has US$176 billion of total equity, making Tether one of the largest holders of U.S. government debt. In 2024 Tether generated US$13.7 billion profit and he expects this to grow. He positions Tether as a decentralised buyer of U.S. debt, diversifying global holders.
• Infrastructure initiatives: Ardoino announced an ambitious African energy project: Tether plans to build 100 000–150 000 solar‑powered micro‑stations, each serving villages with rechargeable batteries. The subscription model (~US$3 per month) allows villagers to swap batteries and use USDT for payments, supporting a decentralised economy. Tether also invests in peer‑to‑peer AI, telecoms and social media platforms to expand its ecosystem.
• Perspective on the payment shift: Ardoino views stablecoins as transformational for financial inclusion, enabling billions without bank accounts to access a digital dollar. He argues that stablecoins complement rather than replace banks; they provide an on‑ramp into the U.S. financial system for people in high‑inflation economies. He also claims the growth of USDT diversifies demand for U.S. Treasuries, benefiting the U.S. government.

Charles Cascarilla (Co‑Founder & CEO, Paxos)

Vision: modernising the U.S. dollar and preserving its leadership

• National imperative: In testimony before the U.S. House Financial Services Committee (March 2025), Cascarilla argued that “stablecoins are a national imperative” for the United States. He warned that failure to modernise could erode dollar dominance as other countries deploy digital currencies. He compared the shift to moving from physical mail to email; programmable money will enable instantaneous, near‑zero‑cost transfers accessible via smartphones.
• Regulatory blueprint: Cascarilla praised the GENIUS Act as a good baseline but urged Congress to add cross‑jurisdictional reciprocity. He recommended that the Treasury set deadlines to recognise foreign regulatory regimes so that U.S.‑issued stablecoins (and Singapore‑issued USDG) can be used abroad. Without reciprocity, he warned that U.S. firms might be locked out of global markets. He also advocated an equivalence regime where issuers choose either state or federal oversight, provided state standards meet or exceed federal rules.
• Private sector vs. CBDCs: Cascarilla believes the private sector should lead innovation in digital dollars, arguing that a central bank digital currency (CBDC) would compete with regulated stablecoins and stifle innovation. During congressional testimony he said there is no immediate need for a U.S. CBDC, because stablecoins already deliver programmable digital money. He emphasised that stablecoin issuers must hold 1:1 cash reserves, offer daily attestations, restrict asset rehypothecation, and comply with AML/KYC/BSA standards.
• Cross‑border focus: Cascarilla stressed that the U.S. must set global standards to enable interoperable cross‑border payments. He noted that high inflation in 2023–24 pushed stablecoins into mainstream remittances and the U.S. government’s attitude shifted from resistance to acceptance. He told lawmakers that only New York currently issues regulated stablecoins but a federal floor would raise standards across states.
• Business model and partnerships: Paxos positions itself as a regulated infrastructure provider. It issues the white‑label stablecoins used by PayPal (PYUSD) and Mercado Libre and provides tokenisation services for Mastercard, Robinhood and others. Cascarilla notes that eight years ago people asked how stablecoins could make money; today every institution that moves dollars across borders is exploring them.
• Perspective on the payment shift: For Cascarilla, stablecoins are the next evolution of money movement. They will not replace traditional banks but will provide a programmable layer on top of the existing banking system. He believes the U.S. must lead by creating robust regulations that encourage innovation while protecting consumers and ensuring the dollar remains the world’s reserve currency. Failure to do so could allow other jurisdictions to set the standards and threaten U.S. monetary primacy.

Rob Hadick (General Partner, Dragonfly)

Vision: stablecoins as a disruptive payment infrastructure

• Stablecoins as a disruptor: In a June 2025 article (translated by Foresight News), Hadick wrote that stablecoins are not meant to improve existing payment networks but to completely disrupt them. Stablecoins allow businesses to bypass traditional payment rails; when payment networks are built on stablecoins, all transactions are simply ledger updates rather than messages between banks. He warned that merely connecting legacy payment channels underestimates stablecoins’ potential; instead, the industry should reimagine payment channels from the ground up.
• Cross‑border remittances and market size: At the TOKEN2049 panel, Hadick disclosed that ≈10 % of remittances from the U.S. to India and Mexico already use stablecoins, illustrating the shift from traditional remittance rails. He estimated that the cross‑border payments market is about US$200 trillion, roughly eight times the entire crypto market. He emphasised that small and medium‑sized enterprises (SMEs) are underserved by banks and need frictionless capital flows. Dragonfly invests in “last‑mile” companies that handle compliance and consumer interaction rather than mere API aggregators.
• Stablecoin market segmentation: In a Blockworks interview, Hadick referenced data showing that business‑to‑business (B2B) stablecoin payments were annualising US$36 billion, surpassing person‑to‑person volumes of US$18 billion. He noted that USDT dominates 80–90 % of B2B payments, while USDC captures roughly 30 % of monthly volume. He was surprised that Circle (USDC) had not gained more share, though he observed signs of growth on the B2B side. Hadick interprets this data as evidence that stablecoins are shifting from retail speculation to institutional usage.
• Orchestration layers and compliance: Hadick emphasises the importance of orchestration layers—platforms that bridge public blockchains with traditional bank rails. He notes that the biggest value will accrue to settlement rails and issuers with deep liquidity and compliance capabilities. API aggregators and consumer apps face increasing competition from fintech players and commoditisation. Dragonfly invests in startups that offer direct bank partnerships, global coverage and high‑level compliance, rather than simple API wrappers.
• Perspective on the payment shift: Hadick views the shift to stablecoin payments as a “gold rush”. He believes we are only at the beginning: cross‑border volumes are growing 20–30 % month‑over‑month and new regulations in the U.S. and abroad have legitimised stablecoins. He argues that stablecoins will eventually replace legacy payment rails, enabling instant, low‑cost, programmable transfers for SMEs, contractors and global trade. He cautions that winners will be those who navigate regulation, build deep integrations with banks and abstract away blockchain complexity.

Conclusion: Alignments and differences

• Shared belief in stablecoins’ potential: Ardoino, Cascarilla and Hadick agree that stablecoins will drive a trillion‑dollar shift in payments. All three highlight growing adoption in cross‑border remittances and B2B transactions and see emerging markets as early adopters.
• Different emphases: Ardoino focuses on financial inclusion and grassroots adoption, portraying USDT as a dollar substitute for the unbanked and emphasising Tether’s reserves and infrastructure projects. Cascarilla frames stablecoins as a national strategic imperative and stresses the need for robust regulation, reciprocity and private‑sector leadership to preserve the dollar’s dominance. Hadick takes the venture investor’s view, emphasising disruption of legacy payment rails, the growth of B2B transactions, and the importance of orchestration layers and last‑mile compliance.
• Regulation as catalyst: All three consider clear regulation—especially the GENIUS Act—essential for scaling stablecoins. Ardoino and Cascarilla advocate reciprocal recognition to allow offshore stablecoins to circulate internationally, while Hadick sees regulation enabling a wave of startups.
• Outlook: The stablecoin market is still in its early phases. With transaction volumes already in the trillions and use cases expanding beyond trading into remittances, treasury management and retail payments, the “book is just beginning to be written.” The perspectives of Ardoino, Cascarilla and Hadick illustrate how stablecoins could transform payments—from providing a digital dollar for billions of unbanked people to enabling businesses to bypass legacy rails—if regulators, issuers and innovators can build trust, scalability and interoperability.