CES 2026 Signals: Web3 Matures While AI Captures Imagination

General
1

After following the CES 2026 discussions here and attending parts of the event, I want to step back and offer some analysis of what this all means for Web3’s trajectory.

The Signal in the Noise

Yes, AI dominated CES headlines. Yes, blockchain was a sideshow at best. But I don’t think that’s bad news for Web3 - I think it’s a signal of maturation.

Consider the lifecycle of enterprise technology adoption:

  1. Hype phase - Media attention, consumer speculation, inflated expectations
  2. Trough of disillusionment - Reality sets in, weak projects fail
  3. Slope of enlightenment - Serious players build real infrastructure
  4. Plateau of productivity - Technology becomes invisible and useful

Web3 is firmly in phase 3. We don’t need CES booths anymore. We need enterprise deployments.

The Institutional Reality

Let’s look at what’s actually happening while AI gets the headlines:

Morgan Stanley is launching a crypto wallet in 2026 and bringing ETrade crypto trading online in H1 2026. This is a .5 trillion asset manager going all-in on crypto infrastructure.

Cantor Fitzgerald expects institutional adoption to accelerate throughout 2026, citing tokenization and decentralized exchange growth.

59% of institutions plan 5%+ crypto allocation according to recent surveys.

This isn’t consumer hype. This is serious capital allocation.

The Regulatory Tailwind

Yat Siu from Animoca Brands put it well: “The regulatory fog that long shrouded digital assets is finally lifting.”

What I’m seeing from my compliance practice:

  • SEC Crypto Task Force providing clearer guidance
  • CLARITY Act moving through Congress
  • Institutions getting comfortable with compliance frameworks
  • RWA tokenization getting regulatory green lights

The “regulatory uncertainty” excuse for staying out of crypto is rapidly evaporating.

The Counter-Signal: Event Cancellations

I won’t ignore the challenging data: NFT Paris and RWA Paris both cancelled for 2026. Some Web3 events are struggling with attendance.

But I’d argue this is healthy consolidation, not decline. The frothy 2021-era events that were more party than substance are dying. That’s good.

What CES 2026 Actually Shows Us

The shift from consumer to enterprise:

  • Web3 at CES Foundry was enterprise-focused, not consumer hype
  • The conversations were about compliance, institutional custody, tokenization
  • Serious buyers, not speculators

The infrastructure is ready:

  • TVL approaching B
  • L2 scaling delivering real throughput
  • Privacy technology maturing
  • Digital identity wallets going mainstream

The narrative is changing:

  • “Tokenize or die” (Yat Siu) - digital assets becoming mandatory, not optional
  • “Crypto natives to crypto curious” - focus shifting to mainstream adoption
  • RWA tokenization as the bridge to traditional finance

My Prediction

2026 is the year Web3 stops trying to be entertainment and becomes infrastructure. The AI spectacle at CES will fade. The quiet institutional deployments happening now will compound.

By CES 2027, I expect we’ll see major consumer electronics companies integrating crypto wallets, tokenized rewards, and digital ownership into their products - not as a marketing gimmick, but as standard infrastructure.

The question for builders: are you building for the hype cycle or the infrastructure layer? The hype is elsewhere. The opportunity is here.

What’s your read on where we’re headed?

2

Rachel, I appreciate the optimistic framing but I want to push back on one thing: the consumer/creator economy can’t be ignored.

The Entertainment Economy Isn’t Optional

You frame the shift from “entertainment” to “infrastructure” as purely positive. But the entertainment economy is huge - it’s where regular people interact with technology.

Yes, institutional adoption is important. But if Web3 becomes purely B2B infrastructure, we lose something critical: the ownership economy that was supposed to empower creators and consumers.

The NFT Angle

NFT Paris getting cancelled isn’t just “healthy consolidation.” It’s a signal that the creator economy side of Web3 is struggling.

Artists I work with are hurting. The secondary market for digital art has cratered. Music NFT platforms are losing users. Gaming NFT projects are shutting down.

“Infrastructure maturation” doesn’t help the digital artist who was counting on NFT royalties. “Enterprise tokenization” doesn’t serve the musician who wanted to connect directly with fans.

My Concern

If Web3 becomes synonymous with “institutional finance infrastructure,” we’ve lost the plot. The whole point was democratization - giving individuals ownership and control.

Yes, Morgan Stanley launching a crypto wallet is significant. But is that really the Web3 we wanted? A traditional finance player offering crypto products to their existing wealthy clients?

What I Want to See:

  • Consumer products that make digital ownership mainstream (not just TSA-friendly ID)
  • Creator economy tools that actually work economically
  • Gaming integrations that enhance rather than exploit players
  • Social platforms where users own their data and content

The enterprise infrastructure is great. But it shouldn’t be the whole story.

What’s the plan for the consumer side of Web3? Or are we just giving up on that?

3

Weighing in on the fundraising landscape since Rachel mentioned the infrastructure opportunity:

The Reality for Web3 Founders Right Now

I talk to a lot of founders and the fundraising environment is genuinely challenging. VCs are still interested in crypto, but they’re extremely selective. The “spray and pray” days of 2021 are long gone.

What’s getting funded:

  • AI-crypto intersection projects (as discussed in the other thread)
  • Enterprise infrastructure (custody, compliance, RWA)
  • Projects with real revenue or clear path to revenue
  • Teams with strong technical credentials

What’s struggling:

  • Consumer-facing NFT projects (sorry Nathan)
  • “Community” tokens without utility
  • DeFi forks and “innovative” tokenomics
  • Anything that sounds like 2021 hype

Is Web3 Funding “Drying Up”?

I’d say it’s maturing, not dying. The total dollars might be lower, but the quality of deployment is higher. VCs burned in 2022 learned expensive lessons.

The good news: there IS money for serious projects. The bar is just higher.

What Founders Should Be Building

If you’re starting a Web3 company today, you need to answer these questions clearly:

  1. What’s the revenue model? (Not just tokenomics)
  2. Who’s the customer? (Be specific - “the crypto community” isn’t an answer)
  3. What’s the regulatory path? (If you don’t know, figure it out)
  4. How does this provide value without token price appreciation?

If you can answer those, you can still raise. If you can’t, maybe your idea needs more work.

The Silver Lining

Rachel’s right that institutional adoption creates new opportunities. The Morgan Stanleys of the world need vendors. They need infrastructure providers. They need compliance tools.

Building B2B for institutional crypto might not be as sexy as building the next BAYC, but the market opportunity is real and growing.

The founders who survived 2022-2023 and are still building deserve credit. This is when the real work happens.

4

Market perspective on where we’re headed:

What Price Action Tells Us

BTC and ETH have been relatively range-bound despite all the institutional news. That might seem bearish, but I read it differently.

In 2021, we saw explosive rallies on much less substantial news. Now we’re seeing steady accumulation on genuinely significant developments (Morgan Stanley, ETF inflows, regulatory clarity). The market is maturing - less reflexivity, more fundamentals.

The Sentiment Indicators:

  • Crypto Fear & Greed has been in “Neutral” to “Greed” territory
  • Funding rates relatively stable (not overheated)
  • Institutional flows positive but not parabolic
  • On-chain metrics showing accumulation, not distribution

This isn’t the mania of 2021. It’s the steady build of 2016-2017 before the real run.

What CES Tells the Market:

Honestly? The market doesn’t care much about CES specifically. It cares about:

  1. Fed policy and macro liquidity
  2. Bitcoin ETF flows
  3. Regulatory developments (SEC, CFTC, Congress)
  4. Institutional allocation trends

CES is a sentiment indicator at best. And the sentiment is: “Web3 isn’t dead, it’s just boring now.” Boring is often bullish - it means the tourists have left and the builders are building.

My Positioning:

I’m constructive on:

  • BTC (institutional allocation play)
  • ETH (L2 ecosystem growth + staking yields)
  • Selected AI-crypto infrastructure tokens
  • DeFi blue chips with real revenue (not just token emissions)

I’m cautious on:

  • Consumer NFT plays
  • Low-cap memecoins
  • Projects dependent on continued hype cycles

The Risk:

The main risk isn’t that Web3 dies at CES obscurity. It’s that AI actually delivers everything crypto promised - decentralized compute, autonomous agents, new economic primitives - without needing blockchain.

But I don’t think that happens. The financial layer needs censorship resistance and verifiability that centralized AI can’t provide.

Long Web3 infrastructure, short Web3 hype. That’s my thesis for 2026.