đź’µ Algorithmic Stablecoins in 2025: Innovation or Risk After Terra/LUNA?

Post-Terra/LUNA collapse, algorithmic stablecoins are controversial. :fire:

The $40 billion Terra/UST death spiral in May 2022 shook DeFi to its core. But innovation continues. Let’s discuss: can algorithmic stablecoins work, or are they fundamentally flawed?

The Terra/UST Collapse Recap

What happened:

  • UST was “backed” by LUNA via arbitrage mechanism
  • Bank run started when UST lost peg
  • LUNA hyperinflated (printed trillions to restore peg)
  • Both went to zero in days
  • $40B+ wiped out

Why it failed:

  • No real backing (just algorithmic promise)
  • Death spiral: depeg → LUNA print → LUNA dump → worse depeg
  • Anchor Protocol offering 20% APY was unsustainable
  • Too much faith in algorithms, not enough collateral

The Frax Model: Hybrid Approach

Frax takes a different path:

  • Partially collateralized (USDC backing)
  • Algorithmic stability (FXS token for rebalancing)
  • Market-driven ratio (adjusts collateral % based on demand)

Currently ~92% collateralized with USDC/other assets.

Key difference from UST: Real backing exists, algorithm adjusts ratio.

Other Approaches

Fully Collateralized (DAI, USDC):
:white_check_mark: Safe, proven
:cross_mark: Capital inefficient
:cross_mark: Centralized (USDC) or complex (DAI)

Algorithmic (UST-style):
:white_check_mark: Capital efficient
:cross_mark: Death spiral risk
:cross_mark: Failed spectacularly

Hybrid (Frax, LUSD):
:white_check_mark: Balance of both
:white_check_mark: More capital efficient than fully collateralized
:cross_mark: Still complex
:cross_mark: Not fully tested at scale

Regulatory Landscape

Post-Terra, regulators are watching:

  • US: Stablecoin bills in Congress
  • EU: MiCA regulation requiring reserves
  • Likely outcome: Algorithmic stablecoins heavily restricted or banned

My Questions

  1. Can algorithmic stablecoins ever be safe? Or is death spiral risk inherent?
  2. Is Frax’s hybrid model the future? Or will regulation kill it?
  3. Should we just accept centralized stablecoins (USDC)? Give up on decentralization for safety?
  4. What about over-collateralized models (DAI)? Too complex for mass adoption?
  5. Is there a “stablecoin singularity” where one model wins all?

Looking for perspectives from:

  • Protocol builders designing stablecoin mechanisms
  • Economists understanding stability dynamics
  • Regulators/compliance folks seeing the legal landscape
  • Traders who actually use stablecoins daily

Let’s discuss! :money_bag:

Diana

Diana, this hits at the core of DeFi’s biggest failure. :hammer_and_wrench:

As someone building infrastructure, Terra/UST taught me that innovative mechanisms mean nothing if the math doesn’t work.

Why Algorithmic Failed

The death spiral is inevitable:

  • UST depeg triggers LUNA minting
  • LUNA price drops from new supply
  • Panic accelerates selling
  • Both tokens spiral to zero

This isn’t fixable. It’s the mechanism itself.

Frax’s Approach

Frax is smarter:

  • 92% USDC backing = real floor
  • 8% algorithmic = efficiency
  • Can’t death spiral to zero

BUT still has risks:

  • That 8% could cause volatility
  • Heavy USDC dependency
  • Regulatory pressure to go 100%

What Infrastructure Needs

For BlockEden and APIs:
We need to support stables that won’t disappear overnight.

Current support:

  • USDC: Fully supported
  • USDT: Supported (despite concerns)
  • DAI: Supported
  • Frax: Monitoring
  • Algorithmic: Won’t add again

Lesson: Infrastructure providers need stability too.

My Take

USTC is boring and centralized.

That’s exactly why it works and why we build on it.

Brian :link:

From security perspective, stablecoins are attack vectors. :locked:

Terra Was A Security Failure

Not just economics - security:

Attack surface:

  • Oracle manipulation
  • Arbitrage mechanism exploit
  • Governance attacks
  • Bank run engineering

What happened:

  • Large holder(s) triggered depeg
  • Arbitrageurs amplified it
  • Panic did the rest
  • B evaporated

Was it an attack or accident? We’ll never know. But mechanism allowed it.

Frax Security

Better than UST:

  • Real collateral = harder to break
  • 92% floor prevents zero
  • More resilient

Still vulnerable:

  • Smart contract risk
  • USDC blacklist risk (Circle can freeze)
  • Governance attacks
  • Oracle manipulation

USDC Security

Centralization = security features:

  • Circle can freeze malicious actors
  • Regulatory oversight
  • Audited reserves
  • Legal recourse if problems

But also risks:

  • Circle can freeze YOUR funds
  • Government can force freezes
  • Single point of failure
  • Censorship possible

Recommendation

Low-value transactions: Any stable fine
High-value DeFi: USDC or DAI only
Long-term holding: USDC
Privacy needs: Avoid USDC (use DAI)

Algorithmic: NEVER for any use case.

Sophia :shield:

Let me share stablecoin market data. :bar_chart:

Market Share (Current)

  • USDT: B (58%)
  • USDC: B (18%)
  • DAI: B (3%)
  • FRAX: M (0.4%)
  • Others: B (20%)

Total: B stablecoin market

Historical Comparison

Pre-Terra (April 2022):

  • UST: B
  • FRAX: .7B

Post-Terra (Now):

  • UST: /bin/zsh (-100%)
  • FRAX: M (-76%)

Algorithmic experiment cost: B+ destroyed

Usage Patterns

USDT: 65% of DEX volume
USDC: 25% of DEX volume
DAI: 8% of DEX volume
Others: 2%

Reality: Traders use USDT/USDC. Everything else is niche.

Peg Stability

Last 12 months deviation from :

  • USDC: 0.02% max
  • USDT: 0.08% max
  • DAI: 0.15% max
  • FRAX: 0.45% max

More algorithmic = more volatility

My Analysis

Market already decided:

  • Centralized wins (76% market share)
  • Algorithmic dead (UST = 0)
  • Hybrid struggling (Frax declining)

Data doesn’t lie.

Mike :chart_increasing:

Excellent insights from everyone! :folded_hands:

Consensus Emerging

Brian: Infrastructure needs boring stability
Sophia: Security favors centralization features
Mike: Market data shows centralized dominance

Clear pattern: Centralized, fully-backed stables won.

What This Means

For DeFi builders:
Build on USDC/USDT. Accept centralized base layer.

For regulators:
Full reserves will be mandated. Algorithmic banned.

For users:
Use USDC for safety. USDT for liquidity. DAI for idealism.

For innovators:
The stablecoin problem is solved. Move on.

Key Lesson

Sometimes boring is best.

USTC is centralized, regulated, audited, boring.

That’s why it works.

Terra was exciting, innovative, algorithmic.

That’s why it failed.

The Future

USTC dominance grows. CBDCs compete. Algorithmic extinct.

DeFi adapts and builds value on stable infrastructure.

That’s the path forward. :dollar_banknote:

Diana